Welcome back to another captaincy metrics blog, This week the captaincy decision seems to be a tricky one with Haaland and Salah facing each other in the early kickoff. The other FPL Gameweek 13 Captain Picks including the likes of Son and Saka also don’t have easy fixtures. Bowen could have been a great alternative option but he is currently flagged and his availability is not clear. Let’s see who amongst the five players tops the captaincy metrics this week, will it be Haaland again on top, or will Salah outrank Haaland?
The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” last season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
This season the metrics has a 9/12 returns record
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Total metrics points: 208 points (26+4+14+40+12+12+4+30+16+16+2+32)
Link to all our FPL GW13 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW13 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW13 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Haaland comes out on top of the captaincy poll for FPL Gameweek 13 with 24% of the votes. Bowen who is currently a doubt to play in GW13 against is second in the captaincy poll with 22% of the votes. Salah is third with 18% of the votes and will be playing against Man City in FPL GW13, Son is only 4th with just 12% of the votes and Saka is last with 10% of the votes.
“We hope Jarrod will be available tomorrow against Burnley but we will make a decision on that tomorrow” – Moyes on Bowen’s availability
Further Read: FPL GW13 Injury News & Press Conference Updates of All Teams
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 13 Captain picks
Salah tops our picks for Underlying Numbers. With 15 Shots Inside the Box, 9 Big Chances in total, and an xG total of 5.31, he leads the Attacking Stats factor for players in consideration. He has created 12 chances in the last six games which is the joint highest amongst the five players.
Haaland comes in behind Salah for Underlying Numbers. With 13 Shots Inside the Box, 8 Big Chances in total, and an xG total of 4.79.
Son comes in third with 10 Shots Inside the Box, 3 Big Chances, and an xG total of 2.54.
Bowen, with 15 Shots Inside the Box, 5 Big chances, and an xG total of 2.02, takes the fourth spot.
Saka who has been relatively silent in the league over the past few games is the last amongst the five players in terms of xG(1.97) in the last six games. He’s however the joint highest for most number of chances created(12) amongst the five players in the last six games.
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Liverpool have the best underlying numbers of the teams in comparison to the last 6 games. A total of 64 Shots Inside the Box and 19 Big Chances, helps in boosting their xG to 13.64, which is the highest of all teams in question.
Man City come in behind Liverpool, with 56 Shots Inside the Box, 18 Big Chances in Total, and xG at 10.92.
Arsenal come behind Man City with 56 Shots Inside the Box, 14 Big Chances in Total, and an xG of 10.11.
West Ham are only fourth amongst the five teams with just 54 Shots Inside the Box, 13 Big Chances in Total, and an xG of 8.73.
Surprisingly, Spurs take the last spot with 42 Shots Inside the Box, 12 Big Chances in Total, and an xG of 8.42.
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 13 Scout Selection- Based on Stats and Matchups
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW13
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Man City surprisingly take the first spot due to the home advantage, with a 85% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this Gameweek and a 36% chance of scoring more than 2 goals this Gameweek.
Arsenal are behind Arsenal with an 82% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this week, and a 29% chance of scoring more than 2 goals vs Brentford(H)
Spurs have an 80% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this week, and a 27% chance of scoring more than 2 goals against Aston Villa at home taking the 3rd rank.
West Ham are fourth behind Spurs and have a 78% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this week, and a 25% chance of scoring more than 2 goals against Burnley(A)
Liverpool are last with a 69% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this week, and a 15% chance of scoring more than 2 goals against Man City(A).
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 13 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 13 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Erling Haaland has the highest Anytime Returns Projections at 74%, while his Projected Points stand at 6.6 for the week. Haaland’s projected points are slightly less as he’s projected to play 70-ish minutes due to his injury scare from the INTL break.
Pep in the PC: Erling Haaland trained yesterday with some niggles. Yeah, today we [will do] the last training session, hopefully, he can play a part.
Son has an Anytime Returns Projection at 65%, and the Projected Points at 7.3 this week, giving him the joint first spot this week.
Salah has an Anytime Returns Projections at 55% and Projected Points at 5.6, which puts him 3rd in this table.
Saka has an Anytime Returns Projections at 46% and Projected Points at 5.1, which puts him 4th in this table.
Lastly, Bowen has an Anytime Returns Projections of 44% while the Projected Points stand at 4.2 pushing him to the last spot. Bowen’s projections are lesser than expected due to the injury concern around him at the moment, his xMins has been projected at 68 mins which reduces his projected points whereas all the other assets are projected to play 90 mins(Except Haaland as mentioned above) mostly boosting their projected points.
Further Read: Top FPL GW13 Differential Picks To Consider Ahead Of Deadline
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 13 Captaincy metric analysis
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
Haaland tops the metrics with a CRF of 6, finishing above Salah who ended up with a CRF of 10.
Son is 3rd with a CRF of 12. Saka is fourth with a cumulative rank factor of 14 whereas Bowen finishes last with a CRF of 17!
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW13
Top FPL GW13 Differential Picks To Consider Ahead Of Deadline
Top FPL Gameweek 13 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL Gameweek 13 Scout Selection- Based on Stats and Matchups
FPL GW13 Injury News & Press Conference Updates of All Teams
FPL Gameweek 13 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW13 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based On Eye Test & Stats
FPL GW13-18 Fixture Swing Analysis | Teams & Players to Target
Premier League Players who will miss PL due to AFCON
FPL GW13 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 23/24 Season
Link to all our FPL GW13 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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