FPL GW33 Differential Picks to Consider | Gameweek 33 Free Hit Special

GW33 is a double gameweek with a handful of teams doubling along with that a few teams blank as well. The teams that double are not very popular leaving us with quite a few differentials to consider from them. A lot of managers are playing their free hit chip to load up on a few differentials and quite a few managers are beginning to do differential transfers to gain ranks as we approach the close of the season. In this blog, we bring you six of the best differential picks to consider for FPL GW33.

Note: The TSB mentioned is at the time of writing and is subject to change

Link to all our FPL Gameweek 33 blogs. Our blogs cover a wide range of topics including the best free hit drafts, captaincy, transfer trends, player comparisons, chip strategy, differentials, and more.

FPL GW33 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)

Chris Wood vs Leicester(H), Palace(H), £6.7, TSB: 3.1%

Chris Wood hasn’t had the best of the starts in his Newcastle career scoring just 2 goals from the 12 league games so far. But with lack of good forwards in FPL, Newcastle’s good form and two favorable home fixtures, Wood is certainly worth a shout. Another thing to be noted is that Newcastle perform well and attack more at home games compared to away. They have nearly 3 times more big chances at home(16) compared to away(6) since Howe took over.

Newcastle’s attack Home vs Away since GW12(Howe’s first game):

• Matches- 10 vs 10
• Shots inside the box- 87 vs 64
• Big chances- 16 vs 6
• xG- 13.64 vs 10.09
• Goals- 14 vs 8

Match up alert:

• One of the Newcastle’s GW33 opponent Leicester City have conceded the most headed attempts(92), 4th most for attempts conceded from set pieces(33) this season.
• Newcastle’s other GW33 opponent Crystal Palace are third for attempts conceded from set plays(34) this season.

Chris Wood header incoming? What these numbers suggest is that Newcastle are likely to score a header/goal from set piece in GW33. With penalty duties also with him, he is surely worth a punt to consider at just 3.1% ownership for FPL GW33.

Further Read: FPL Defenders To Target from FPL GW33 | Doherty/Tierney Replacements

Jadon Sancho vs Norwich(H), Liverpool(A), £8.9, TSB: 3.1%

Man United have not been in good form for a while, but they have a great game at home to Norwich, a fixture they’ll be looking to target and return to winning ways before a trip to hated rivals Liverpool. Sancho is guaranteed of minutes in both the games and has been in decent form over the last few games. Since GW27 he has a goal and three assists to his name, although not great numbers, it’s also not bad either.

Norwich away record this season:

Shots	Shots on Target	Big Chances	Goals
286 (Worst in the League)	89	45 (Worst in the League)	32 (3rd Worst in the League)

Norwich’s record away from home is really woeful something which Sancho and Man United will look to target. Liverpool have also conceded goals in the last few games and Ralf will look to count on Sancho’s pace and ability to cut into the box against the Liverpool full-backs to stand a chance against Liverpool at Anfield. Sancho was also very effective in the previous big game vs Man City in GW28 and scored a good goal. Overall a risky differential option but I would say backing Sancho could work out well in GW33!

Further Read: FPL Double Gameweek 33 Teams and Players to Target

Martinelli vs Southampton(A), Chelsea(A), £5.0, TSB: 4.1%

Arsenal have one of the most attractive Double Gameweek in GW33 playing Southampton and Chelsea both of the teams in very poor defensive form of late. Chelsea looks to be a tough fixture on paper, but Chelsea have a important FA Cup game against Palace on weekend, then face Arsenal midweek(GW33 game) and then again play West Ham on Sunday. This means some rotation, tired legs against an Arsenal side out of all other competitions and with complete rest. Despite two losses from the last 2 games, Arsenal will go hard and push for the Top 4 finish which means we can see more attacking intent from them. Martinelli is likely to start both the games with Lacazette not in best forms/injury doubts.

Martinelli is not afraid to put up a show against big teams as seen against Liverpool recently. With Reece James playing as a very attacking full back, Martinelli should enjoy the space left in behind him. Martinelli has 5 goals, 4 assists this season and with another double coming in at GW36, Martinelli is a good differential pick at just 4.1% TSB for GW33 and also for the longer run.

Stat attack:

• Since GW27, Southampton have conceded the most big chances(22), 2nd worst xGC(13.0), most goals conceded(15) in the league.

Further Read: FPL Chip Strategy For The Remainder Of The Season | All Scenarios

Che Adams vs Arsenal(H), Burnley(A), £6.8, TSB:5.1%

Southampton suffered one of their customary home game hammerings last week at the hands of Chelsea. The Saints have two attractive games coming up this week to bounce back from the heavy defeat. Hassenhuttl’s men take on Arsenal at home and then travel to Turf Moor to complete the double. The former has lost 3 out of the last 4 games, while Burnley are coming off a disappointing defeat to Norwich.

Leading the line for Southampton once again will be Che Adams. The Englishman has 3 goals and 2 assists in the last 9 games. While this doesn’t sound promising, the stats tell a different story. Adams has an xG of 4.2 in that time, the seventh best tally in the league. Furthermore, the Saints striker has had 8 big chances since FPL GW24, the third highest in the league. On top of that he has had 18 shots in the box, which once again is the seventh best in the league.

The South Coast side has a very good run of games in coming up. As we can see from the above graphic, 4 of their next 5 games have an FDR rating of 2. Therefore Adams is a safe long term investment.

Further Read: AllAboutFPL FPL GW33 Scout Picks | FPLDaggaFC

Ultra-Differential Picks for FPL GW33(<1% TSB):

Alex Telles vs Norwich(H), Liverpool(A), £5.0, TSB: 0.9%

Luke Shaw is out for a few weeks which makes Alex Telles a guaranteed starter in both the DGW33 games. The United full-back is a good crosser, also on some set-piece and corners as well which brings the hope of an attacking return.

He has a very good matchup against Norwich in the first DGW33 fixture. Norwich have conceded the most crosses(76) from the Right flank(Telles Side) in the last six games. They have also conceded the most chances through the right flank than other zones in the last six games.

Since GW27, Telles also has the most crosses(35) for a defender with a decent successful cross percentage as well(29%). He’ll look to cross into a certain Cristiano Ronaldo who’s pretty good aerially.

At 5 Million he could be a good replacement for Doherty/Tierney both of whom are now ruled out for the remainder of the season.

Further Read: How to Effectively Use Free Transfers Till The End of The FPL Season

Bruno Guimarães vs Leicester(H), Crystal Palace(H), £4.9, TSB: 0.3%

Another Bruno has took the Premier League like a duck to water. This Brazilian midfielder has played a major role in helping Newcastle turn their fortunes around. Having said that, he hasn’t yet delivered as far as FPL is concerned. But his stats suggest returns not far away. Since he came into the starting eleven, Bruno is joint top for big chances created(2) among his compatriots. He also tops the charts for shots(11) among Newcastle players.

The Newcastle man has been passing the eye test for a long time now and the lone goal he has scored for the club shows the goal scoring instincts he has. Eddie Howe’s men arguably have the most favorable fixtures this week. They take on a Leicester side who will be tired post their European fixture and then take on Palace who would come off a potentially draining FA Cup semi-final. As a result of which if you are taking a punt on anyone it must be on a Magpie who are also likely to score more goals at home as mentioned under Wood.

[kofi]

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Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 33:

FPL GW33 Captaincy Metrics & Conclusion- Kane vs Son vs Salah vs Bruno vs Ronaldo vs Maddison
FPL Defenders To Target from FPL GW33 | Doherty/Tierney Replacements
FPL Double Gameweek 33 Teams and Players to Target
AllAboutFPL FPL GW33 Scout Picks | FPLDaggaFC
Best FPL GW33 Free Hit Drafts to Consider | Free Hit Guide
How to Effectively Use Free Transfers Till The End of The FPL Season
FPL Chip Strategy For The Remainder Of The Season | All Scenarios
Impact of FA Cup Results on FPL Gameweek 33 | FPL GW33 Fixtures

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