Popular Player Comparisons Ahead of FPL GW9

GW8 saw some very bizarre benchings that make us question a lot of our FPL assets. This week we’re going to dive into Chelsea’s attacking defenders and the many striker options ahead of this weekend. In this article, we will cover the Popular Player comparisons ahead of FPL GW9.

[All statistics taken from FFSCOUT]

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Reece James (£5.5m) vs Ben Chilwell (£5.7m)

Yes, we’re comparing another two defenders who have both surprised and frustrated FPL managers. After a spell away from the first team, it seems Chilwell is first choice over Marcos Alonso. James, while seemingly nailed, was concerningly benched in GW8.

With the extent of Rudiger’s injury unknown, it may be time for those wanting a Chelsea defender to look to these rotation risks. Both players seem to be key in a Chelsea side competing for the title, but which asset will accumulate the most points this season, and is it worth taking a gamble on both?

James vs Chilwell: The Stats

*James is on 191 minutes (3 starts, 2 subs on)

*Chilwell is on 180 minutes (2 starts, 0 subs on)

	James	Chilwell
Goals	1	2
Assists	0	0
xGI	1.23	0.71
Goal Attempts	4	5
Shots in Box	2	5
Big Chances	1	1
Penalty Area Touches	10	9
Crosses	12	16

Very evenly matched here, but neither player has had a great start to the season with injuries and suspensions. From the start of the season, it was suspected that James would be a regular starter with great attacking threat, whereas Chilwell has fallen back into favour in recent weeks.

These stats prove Chilwell to be the one over-performing, having racked up great form over the last two games. On this basis alone, Chilwell’s momentum must make him favourite over James heading into GW9.

James’ Heatmaps

Chilwell’s Heatmaps

Chelsea Stats at a Glance

Goals	16 (joint 2nd)
Penalty Area Touches	203 (4th)
Chances Created	76 (9th)
Goal Attempts	103 (joint 7th)
Shots on Target	37 (5th)
Goals Conceded	3 (joint 1st)
Shots Conceded	98 (6th)

While big teams Liverpool, Man City, and Man United beat Chelsea in goal attempts, chances created, and shots on target, Chelsea have been clinical in front of goal. They saw off Arsenal and Tottenham and held Liverpool to a draw, asserting their place as title contenders this year.

We know from their style of play that James and Chilwell’s positions as wingbacks mean that they are key to Chelsea’s attacks.

One thing to note is that Brentford registered a whopping 17 shots against Chelsea last weekend. Obviously this can be a number of things: Brentford’s sheer attacking threat they have displayed throughout the start of the season, maybe Rudiger’s absence was really felt in that second half. Regardless, the defensive power of Chelsea under Tuchel is brilliant, and their final line of defence, Mendy, is in top form.

However, I think that Trent is still crucial to FPL managers, and City’s performances warrant the rotation risks of Cancelo and Dias. Therefore, doubling up on a Chelsea defence would mean a huge portion of your budget would be in the backline.

NOR

new

BUR

lei

MUN

wat

whu

LEE

From GW7, Chelsea’s fixtures have been great, and they continue this run until they hit tricky games against Leicester and United. Even then, it wouldn’t be a stretch to say that they could come away with a clean sheet in both. Their only loss so far has come from City (1-0).

Norwich, Newcastle, and Burnley are three teams seriously struggling, with neither of them claiming a win thus far. This is a great opportunity for Chelsea to bag numerous goals alongside a clean sheet, so I do think owning a Chelsea wingback will really rack up those points for your team.

James vs Chilwell: The Verdict

We know how strong Chelsea are, and we also know that these next few games have great potential to be high-scoring. The word right now is that Rudiger will be in contention for the Champions League on Wednesday, but even if he is fit I think a switch to James or Chilwell is needed to take advantage of their attacking threat.

Out of the two, Chilwell has the least amount of competition right now, and I think he’s my number one choice. He’s in great form, so surely Tuchel keeps him in that starting 11. A big indicator here will be their Champions League game against Malmo on Wednesday night – if Alonso starts, this will mean Chilwell becomes even more ‘nailed’ for the Premier League.

Further Read: FPL GW9 Budget Midfielders Analysis | Best Jota And Benrahma Replacements

Kane (£12.1m) vs Lukaku (£11.7m) vs Vardy (£10.6m)

With a frustrating United team going into a difficult fixture run, the premium forward position comes down to these three. Kane and Vardy are well-established FPL assets who have performed year on year. Lukaku, on the other hand, has returned to Chelsea after a blistering few years in Italy but has drawn numerous blanks in favourable fixtures.

Kane vs Lukaku vs Vardy: The Stats

*stats per appearance is in brackets

	Kane	Lukaku	Vardy
Goals	1	3	7
Assists	0	0	0
xGI	2.77 (0.40)	4.17 (0.60)	4.62 (0.60)
Goal Attempts	17 (2.4)	18 (2.6)	23 (2.9)
Shots in Box	8	16	21
Big Chances	4 (0.60)	4 (0.60)	6 (0.80)
Penalty Area Touches	27	36	45
Crosses	4	4	7

These stats make a great case for all of these assets. It’s unfortunate that Kane didn’t have the smoothest of starts to the season, but even if we give him the benefit of the doubt I think Lukaku and Vardy have to be favourites. Vardy has hugely outscored Lukaku as of now, but in such a strong Chelsea side Lukaku owners will feel a little hard done by.

Kane’s Heatmaps

Lukaku’s Heatmaps

Vardy’s Heatmaps

As we can see, all are quite similar – except Kane’s heatmap isn’t as promising; but this is probably expected given his poorer start.

Tottenham vs Chelsea vs Leicester at a Glance

	Tottenham	Chelsea	Leicester
Goals	9	16	13
Penalty Area Touches	161	203	183
Chances Created	61	76	67
Goal Attempts	87	103	96
Shots on Target	34	37	33
Shots Conceded	123	98	132
Goals Conceded	12	3	14

Chelsea come out well above Tottenham and Leicester – with Lukaku, it’s a case of him being very unlucky not to get a return over the past few games. However, the stats tell us that he’s surely going to accumulate some points soon, especially when we look at the fixtures.

Leicester come in above Tottenham on most areas. Their fixtures haven’t wildly differed either, but Tottenham’s rocky and inconsistent start also comes down to Kane not starting until GW3, and up until recently being off-form. Son was also out injured during GW3, when Palace surprisingly thrashed them. I don’t think these explanations are enough to warrant jumping on Kane over Lukaku or Vardy.

Tottenham	Chelsea	Leicester
whu	NOR	bre
MUN	new	ARS
eve	BUR	lee
LEE	lei	CHE
bur	MUN	WAT
BRE	wat	sou
NOR	whu	avl
bha	LEE	NEW

Looking again to Chelsea’s next few fixtures, it would be difficult to not opt for Lukaku.

Tottenham have a lovely fixture run from GW11, which I think is a great time to be considering Kane. By then, we will also have a lot more stats and have an idea of how in-form he is, whereas up until now he has seemed very inconsistent. Leicester, from GW13, similarly have a nice small run of fixtures. Maybe these turning points would be a good time to replace Lukaku.

Kane vs Lukaku vs Vardy: The Verdict

Right now, it’s hard to justify turning your back on Lukaku. He will surely register a large number of points against Norwich, Newcastle, and Burnley. With Lukaku vs Vardy, it comes very close.

If your team is built around the ‘threemium’ structure, I think Ronaldo to Vardy will be the most popular move this week – and rightfully so. A front three of Lukaku, Vardy, and a budget striker (more on these below) looks to be a points machine; especially as Antonio’s fixtures turn sour and with DCL and Bamford still out injured.

Kane, on the other hand, becomes a much more appealing asset from GW11. Then, it’s the age-old question of Kane vs Son, which I will probably go into closer to the time.

Further Read: FPL GW9 Budget Midfielders Analysis | Best Jota And Benrahma Replacements

Armstrong (£6m) vs Hwang (£5.6m) vs Toney (£6.4m)

Last week I made the popular comparison between Mbeumo and Toney, and one of my reasons for preferring Mbeumo was the sheer number of cheap options in attack. My favourite budget striker, Armstrong, was bizarrely benched in GW8, so I think we have to re-analyse this price point for GW9.

Armstrong vs Hwang vs Toney: The Stats

*stats per appearance in brackets

	Armstrong	Hwang	Toney
Goals	1	3	2
Assists	1	0	0
xGI	2.26 (0.30)	1.97 (0.40)	3.99 (0.50)
Goal Attempts	21 (3.0)	6 (1.2)	18 (2.2)
Shots in Box	12	6	13
Big Chances	2 (0.30)	3 (0.60)	2 (0.20)
Penalty Area Touches	30	19	33
Crosses	8	1	6

From this ,it is clear that Toney and Armstrong have been unlucky to only get two attacking returns so far.

Armstrong has been Southampton’s biggest attacking threat by far, so it is strange to see that his starting place wasn’t as nailed as we all thought.

Hwang’s data is little harder to analyse. He has certainly over-performed his expected stats and has had an explosive start to his career at Wolves. However, we don’t know whether or not his starting place is definite. Of his five appearances, two have been as a substitute. Jiminez was also surprisingly benched last week, and yet his starting position is a lot more established.

Armstrong’s Heatmaps

Hwang’s Heatmaps

Toney’s Heatmaps

Hwang’s maps are a lot less enticing than Armstrong and Toney’s – again, he is still a bit of an unknown for FPL managers. Toney’s is a lot more explosive than Armstrong’s really displaying Brentford’s great start.

Southampton vs Wolves vs Brentford: The Stats

	Southampton	Wolves	Brentford
Goals	6	8	10
Penalty Area Touches	179	184	156
Chances Created	75	82	58
Goal Attempts	100	103	89
Shots on Target	28	29	27
Shots Conceded	96	82	90
Goals Conceded	10	8	7

Overall, Wolves have shown the most attacking potential, and yet Hwang is the most difficult one to predict.

Like we’ve seen before, Brentford haven’t necessarily had the most opportunities, but they have been the most clinical. So, it’s a tricky decision to go for Toney, especially when we already have Mbeumo as an option.

And Southampton, though they haven’t bagged a great amount of goals, have promising attacking numbers – bear in mind that Southampton have faced Chelsea, Man City, and Man United. Wolves, on the other hand, have had a nicer fixture run, only facing Tottenham and United from the big contenders so far. Brentford, as we know, have held their own against Liverpool, Arsenal, and Chelsea to a certain extent.

Southampton	Wolves	Brentford
BUR	lee	LEI
wat	EVE	bur
AVL	cry	NOR
nor	WHU	new
liv	nor	EVE
LEI	BUR	tot
BHA	LIV	lee
ars	mci	WAT

I think a lot of people have spoken about how Southampton have the best fixture run until GW13, so I think moving Armstrong before GW9 is a risky decision. If GW8 was an anomaly, then we have a striker who scored 28 goals in last season’s Championship up against teams who are really struggling to get off the ground so far this season.

From now on, the Wolves and Brentford fixtures are a mixed bag.

Armstrong vs Hwang vs Toney: The Verdict

Because Armstrong’s stats have been so great and Southampton’s fixtures are so favourable I think keeping him for another week is perfectly justified. Hopefully, his benching last week will be a strange one-off. I think keeping Hwang if you have him is also a good move.

If it happens again, though, there are more than enough potential replacements. For me, switching to Hwang would also be a minutes risk, unless he cements his starting place over the next few weeks. The safest budget striker is definitely Toney, and Brentford’s fixtures between GW10 and GW12 are just as favorable as Southampton’s. I think this price point is a very tricky one to predict and get right, and I do think all these assets could shape up to be great long-term points scorers.

Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 9:

FPL GW9 Budget Midfielders Analysis | Best Jota And Benrahma Replacements
FPL GW8 Fixture Wise Stats And Eye Test-Based Review


We have also made an elaborate guide covering every rule and chip available in FPL for the 2021/22 FPL Season ~ 2021/22 Fantasy Premier League Season Rules, Tips | The Ultimate Guide

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