FPL GW7 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups

Welcome to our FPL GW7 Scout Picks blog! What a gameweek that was! Liverpool losing, Arsenal winning late and Man City dominating a promoted side… On the other hand, a pretty mixed week for us FPL managers. Our Scout Picks did pretty well, picking up a sweet 60 points in FPL GW6, beating the official FPL scout by 3 points! Our victory takes us to 3.5-2.5 for the season.

	GW1	GW2	GW3	GW4	GW5	GW6
AllAboutFPL Team	62	58	57	68	34	60
Official FPL Team	56	50	57	90	43	57

Back to winning ways – let’s keep it that way. As always, our Scout Picks will be based on the eye test, stats, and analysis. But before we discuss player picks, let’s take a look at the fixtures for FPL GW7.

Link to all our FPL GW7 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, best forwards, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW7 Fixtures

Teams to target in FPL GW7:

• Arsenal
• Brighton
• Newcastle
• Crystal Palace

FPL GW7 Scout Picks

FPL GW7 Scout Picks – Goalkeeper

Arsenal’s Raya (5.6m) makes the team for this week as the Gunners have a favourable home fixture against a wallowing West Ham. This fixture is one to target from a defensive pov rather than an attacking one, as West Ham’s new manager, Nuno (yes, that Nuno), is likely to try to instill a solid defensive mindset and structure before all else… That being said, due to Arsenal’s great fixture run over the next 4-5 GWs, a triple up might be advisable anyway!

West Ham have the 5th-worst xG in the league and have scored the joint 5th-fewest. Nuno’s arrival will likely make their team more conservative (at least to begin with), meaning that we can expect their attacking numbers to decline in the short term. Remember, while Forest finished in a European place last season, it was due to their solid defense, not a great attack, infact, Nuno’s Forest had only the 13th best xG in the division last year. My point is that West Ham have not been a great attacking side under a fairly attacking manager (in theory), and the arrival of a more defense minded coach will surely make them even less potent in the short term.

Arsenal, on the other hand, continue to put up excellent defensive numbers:

• 4.17xGA (1st)
• 3 Goals Against (joint 1st)
• 3 Clean Sheets (joint 2nd)

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FPL GW7 Scout Picks – Defenders

Our backline for FPL GW7 consists of Romero (5.1), Richards (4.5m) and Gabriel (6.2m).

Despite his blank in GW6 we’ve chosen Romero mainly due to the good fixture, DEFCON potential and also aerial threat on corners and set pieces. Romero has hit the DEFCON threshold in 2/6 games this season and his Defensive Contributions numbers read as- 5, 10, 7, 3, 18, 4 which is decent. Spurs have an attractive fixture against promoted Leeds away from home in FPL GW7.

Tottenham currently sit 4th in the Premier League having conceded just 4 goals so far this season. Their defense has impressed many, having improved so much compared to last season. Frank’s managerial nous has definitely helped, as Spurs often approach games with much more pragmatism than they did under Ange last year.

Palace, on the other hand, are likely to be slightly more ‘under the kosh’ when they travel to Liverpool to face Everton away from home, and for that reason, we’ve gone for Chris Richards over teammate Munoz for FPL GW7. Richards has reached the threshold of 10 CBIT necessary to score DC points in 3 of his 6 games so far this season, including the previous two GWs. In only 1 game this season has the American achieved fewer than 8 defensive contributions.

Palace are a very well-coached side, as demonstrated in their dramatic victory over Liverpool last weekend, and should be targeted from an FPL perspective. Richards represents great value for money, considering he ranks fairly closely to Lacroix (who is 0.5m more expensive than Richards) for defensive contributions. Palace have already managed to keep 3 clean sheets this season, illustrating that their defense should definitely be one to watch! Everton are a decent side, but if the Eagles can keep Liverpool quiet for the best part of 90′ then they can surely do the same to the Reds’ city rivals!

Completing our defensive trio for FPL GW7 is Arsenal’s Gabriel. Everything written in the goalkeeper section is also true for Gabriel. Saliba has been slowly eased back into the team following his injury, while the fullback positions are always tough to predict due to Arteta’s tendency to rotate (though Timber looks fairly nailed at the moment). All things considered, that makes Gabriel by far the best pick, even if he is a bit more expensive than some of his teammates. An Arsenal defensive double-up is preferable to an attacking one this week, considering West Ham’s weakness in attack and how defensive they are likely to set up under Nuno.

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 7 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell

FPL GW7 Scout Picks – Midfielders

This week we’ve gone for a midfield of Saka (9.8m), Mbeumo (8.1m), Semenyo (7.6m), and Minteh (5.9m)…

Only Semenyo retains his spot in the team from last week’s team (he keeps the vice captaincy too!). The Bournemouth midfielder has shone this season and continued his excellent start to the campaign with a 7-pointer against Leeds in FPL GW6. Semenyo has only blanked once in FPL this season, with his lowest points total of 2 coming in GW3 against Spurs. Other than that slight blip, the winger has produced 6 goal involvements in 6 games as well as scoring 49 defensive contributions (picking up 2 points for his efforts in FPL GW5). His 0.63xG/90 puts him second behind only Haaland in the league for that metric, while he ranks fourth for xA+xG per 90.

Fulham are a decent defensive team, but Bournemouth have proven capable of breaking down defenses this season, beating Tottenham 1-0 and putting 2 past Liverpool in FPL GW1. Fulham have also looked weaker defensively in recent weeks, conceding 4 in their last 2 Premier League matches against Villa and Brentford, neither of which are particularly good attacking teams. Semenyo and Bournemouth are on fire and have a decent home fixture in FPL GW7, making the Ghanaian winger an easy pick!

Returning to the team is Arsenal starboy Saka, who faces West Ham at home in FPL GW7. As mentioned, an Arsenal defensive double-up is preferable to an attacking one, but betting against this Arsenal attack would be unwise… The Gunners fought back from 1-0 down to win 1-2 away from home in Newcastle and thus go into FPL GW7 with momentum. West Ham, on the other hand, have just sacked their manager and sit joint 19th on just 4 points after 6 games. I know who I’m backing!

Saka’s underlying numbers are not great, and he is currently only averaging 0.26xGI/90, far below last season’s average of 1.05xGI/90. He is admittedly coming back from an injury however, and has only appeared in 4 of Arsenal’s 6 fixtures so far this season. His first start since injury came against Newcastle, and he was kept fairly quiet by Burn, but it was good to see him back out on the pitch after a few weeks out. He’ll be looking to build on that performance in FPL GW7 against West Ham, and may find more joy up against the attacking Diouf than he did against Burn…

Mbeumo and Minteh complete the midfield, with both players having started the season in excellent shape from an underlying numbers perspective…:

Mbeumo vs Minteh underlying stats:

0.33 – xG/90 – 0.27

0.18 – xA/90 – 0.25

2.55 – Shots/90 – 1.77

1.87 – KP/90 – 1.4

Minteh is currently ahead on output, matching Mbeumo for goals (1) but pulling away in terms of assists (0, 2). Brighton’s star winger is being tipped by many for a breakout season, while Mbeumo continues to find his feet at United. Two players on very different trajectories!

Manchester United welcome Sunderland to the Theatre of Dreams and will be hoping that they can break out of their patchy form and begin stringing a few wins together before the international break. The Red Devils struggled last time out against a well-drilled Brentford side, but created enough to draw or even win the game, with their defense letting them down in key moments.

Brighton, on the other hand, travel to Birmingham to visit Wolves, who sit rock bottom of the table on 1 point after 6 games. The Seagulls pulled off an extraordinary victory against Chelsea in FPL GW6 and will be looking to build on that victory away from home this weekend.

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 7 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell

FPL GW7 Scout Picks – Forwards

We’re sticking with a three-man forward line, as Haaland (14.4m) is joined by Mateta (7.5m) and Woltemade (7.1m)…

Very little needs to be written about Haaland. He is an excellent goalscorer playing in a decent team. His underlying numbers are absurd, and he is dragging this City team to victories at the moment with help from a couple of bright sparks in Doku, Reijnders, and others. Haaland retains the captain’s armband for a tricky trip away to Brentford, who will be on a bit of a high following a victory against United last weekend. Brentford are in the bottom half of the table for most defensive statistics, and will be hoping for a smash and grab against City, though if the Burnley result is anything to go by, they may well struggle…

Mateta makes an emphatic return to the AllAboutFPL Scout Picks team! Mateta’s 0.59xG/90 ranks fourth best in the league so far this season, behind only Haaland, Semenyo, and Enzo Fernandes (…). His shot numbers are up this season, which is a pleasing development, considering that he is a low-volume-high-quality shot taker. This suggests that Palace are creating more and better chances for their forwards this season, something that the underlying numbers back up.

Mateta himself is actually underperforming his xG, but this will likely level out over the course of the year – worry not! Sarr is also a great Palace attacking option, as he ranks very highly for most important attacking metrics. That being said, he is not an out-and-out goalscorer like Mateta, and often struggles for consistency where Mateta does not. The French forward is definitely due a goal, and with Palace on a roll at the moment, a trip to the Hill Dickinson will not daunt him nor his teammates!

Finally, we have Newcastle’s Woltemade. The Magpies’ star signing has begun the season in excellent form by scoring goals in both of his two home games in the league since joining the club. The German striker looked good against Arsenal, and managed to bag from close range in the first half in GW6.

There were question marks going into the season about Woltemade, considering his lack of experience in elite football, but he has shown himself to be a capable starting forward for a big team in the Premier League over his first few matches. Competition from Wissa may well come when fit, but for now, he looks like a great option. None of Newcastle’s forward players are nailed 90-minute men at the moment, so going for the main striker who is most nailed seems to be the best bet.

Newcastle face Forest, who are winless since Ange took over and have shipped 5 goals and far too many chances in those 3 matches. Ange-ball will need time, and in the meanwhile, FPL managers should take advantage of its weaknesses!

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FPL GW7 Scout Picks Full Team

Our team comes in under 100m, including one 4.0m goalkeeper, two 4.0m defenders, and one 4.5m forward (all on the bench).

All expected data is from understat unless stated otherwise.

All goal and assist stats are from the Premier League website.

Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL GW7

FPL GW7 Predicted Lineups, Injuries, & Press Conference Updates
Top FPL Gameweek 7 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL Gameweek 7 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Top FPL GW7 Differential Picks to Target Ahead of GW7 Deadline
FPL GW7 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups
FPL GW7 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
FPL GW7 Wildcard Guide – Tips, Players to Target, and Best Drafts

Link to all our FPL GW7 blogs, including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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