Top FPL Gameweek 1 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics

Welcome back to another season of captaincy metrics from us, this will be the 5th full season we’ll be doing it on the blog. A huge shout to the man behind the metrics, @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter/X). Captaincy is once going to be a crucial factor this season, and the popular gameweek 1 captaincy options include Salah, Haaland, Bowen, Watkins, and Palmer. Let’s see who tops the very first captaincy metrics of the season.

Will it be Haaland or Salah, or someone else?

Last season, the metrics finished with 686 pts(26/38 returns), the metrics had a “26/38 returns record” in the 23/24 season, 31/37 “returns record” in the 22/23 season, and “30/38 returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)

Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.

Link to all our 2025/26 Pre-Season articles including all team pre-season friendly updates, team previews, fixture analysis, position-wise analysis, differentials, players to target, budget enablers and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW1 Captaincy Metrics

FPL GW1 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd

Salah tops the captaincy poll with 63% of the votes. Since joining Liverpool, Salah has returned in every single GW1 fixture & he’ll be looking to continue the run against Bournemouth in GW1.

Salah record in GW1:

24/25 vs IPS(A), 14 pts
23/24 vs CHE(A), 5 pts
22/23 vs FUL (A), 12 pts
21/22 vs NOR (A), 17 pts
20/21 vs LEE (H), 20 pts
19/20 vs NOR (H), 12 pts
18/19 vs WHU (H), 8 pts
17/18 vs WAT (A), 10 pts

Haaland is 2nd in the captaincy poll, with 14% of the votes, and will be up against Wolves(A), and Palmer is 3rd in the captaincy poll with 7% of the votes, and will be playing the FA Cup & Community Shield champions, Crystal Palace. Watkins(Newcastle – H) and Bowen(Sunderland – A) round up the top five in our captaincy poll.

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Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 1 Captain picks

Note: We have used the last six games data from the 2024/25 season.

Haaland is top of the table with an xG of 3.62 in the last six games of the 24/25 season. Haaland has also had 12 shots inside the box and 6 big chances. Haaland also scored in their only preseason friendly against Palermo.

Salah is 2nd ahead of Palmer, registering an xG of 2.62 in the last six games along with 8 big chances, and 20 goal attempts in the box. He also created 15 chances, which is the joint highest amongst all players during the period last season.

Palmer is third with an xG of 1.50, The Chelsea attacker has also created 12 chances and has registered 6 goal attempts in the box(Last six games of last season)

Bowen is only 4th with three big chances in the last six games and an xG of 1.37, the West Ham attacker also had 12 goal attempts in the box.

Bowen form in the last six games:

GW38: ⚽🅰️, 13 points
GW37: ⚽, 8 points
GW36: ⚽, 8 points
GW35: ⚽, 9 points
GW34: 🅰️🅰️, 10 points
GW33: ⚽, 9 points

Watkins is last with an xG of 1.23 in the last six games. The Aston Villa attacker registered 11 goal attempts in the box, had five big chances, and created 4 chances(Last six games of last season)

Further Read: Premier League Penalty & Set Piece Takers | 2025/26 PL Season

Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams

Liverpool have registered an xG of 12.66 during the last six games and take up the top spot. They have had 83 shots inside the box and 26 big chances, which is also the highest amongst the five teams in the table.

Man City are 2nd in the table with an xG of 10.44. The Blues have also registered 58 goal attempts in the box and had 13 big chances in the last six games.

Aston Villa are 3rd in the table with an xG of 7.73. Pep’s team had registered 51 shots inside the box and 18 big chances in the last six games of last season. Chelsea are 4th in the table with an xG of 7.51, the Club World Cup champions have had 14 big chances and 44 goal attempts in the box.

West Ham are 5th with an xG of only 6.99 and have had 9 big chances in the last six games, along with 50 goal attempts in the box.

Further Read: Top FPL GW1 Differential Picks to Target Ahead of GW1 Deadline

Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW1

In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.

We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.

Liverpool are top with a 87% odds of at least 1 goal in gameweek one and 55% odds of scoring 2+ goals in FPL GW1 against Bournemouth.

Man City have a 86% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 40% odds of scoring 2+ goals in their opening game of the season against Wolves.

Chelsea have 80% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 36% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week, taking the 3rd spot.

Aston Villa and West Ham are joint 4th in the table, with Aston Villa having 67% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 27% odds of scoring 2+ goals against Newcastle. West Ham have 75% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 22% odds of scoring 2+ goals against Sunderland.

Further Read: 2025/2026 FPL Team Structure Guide with Drafts & Ratings

Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 1 Captain Picks

In the fourth phase of the article, I used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.

Salah is top of the projection rank table with an anytime returns projection of 71% and a 8.6 points projection in FPL Gameweek 1

Haaland is 2nd with an anytime returns projection of 65% and a 6.8 points projection vs Wolves(A)

Palmer is also joint third with an anytime returns projection of 62% and a points projection of 6.9 against Crystal Palace(H)

Watkins takes the 4th spot having an anytime returns projection of 59% and a points projection of 6.1 vs Newcastle(H)

Bowen takes the last spot with the West Ham attacker having an anytime returns projection of 49% and a points projection of 5.2 against Sunderland(A).

Further Read: 2025/26 Pre-Season Summary of All 20 Premier League Teams

Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 1 Captaincy metrics

In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). According to our captaincy metrics, the candidate with the lowest cumulative rank factor is the ideal captaincy option.

Salah tops the captaincy metrics without any surprise, with a cumulative rank factor of 5(Just one less than the least possible CRF), Haaland is 2nd with a CRF of 7, and Palmer is 3rd with a CRF of 12. Watkins and Bowen are 4th and 5th with CRFs of 13 and 18, respectively.

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW1 of the 2025/26 FPL Season

If you’re new to FPL, here is a link to all our FPL Beginners Guide including FPL Beginner’s Guide- How to play?, Bench boost, Team value, Triple captain, Effective ownership, Price Changes, Free Hit, Bonus Points, and more.

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AK - Anurag Khetan

AK is a big Chelsea fan and has been playing FPL since 2012/13. He has finished in the top 5k three times with a Best Overall Rank of 1,140 in the 17/18 season. He's 250th in the FFS HoF and is ranked 7th in India in All-time FPL Rank on Premier Fantasy Tools. He believes in the Eye test and uses statistics to verify them. AK takes a keen interest in Football tactics and strategies on the field. He can be found here: https://twitter.com/AK_FPL1

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