FPL GW21 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups

Welcome to our FPL GW21 Scout Picks blog! Another round of mid-week fixtures are upon us, as we edge away from the festive period and towards what many fans and pundits dub ‘the run in’… While it has been a confusing few weeks, with the elongated new years game week and the subsequent Fa and League cup games, but GW21 should be somewhat of a return to FPL normality. The AAFPL Scout picks team returned 71 points in GW20, 3 more than the Official FPL Scout, which makes it 13-7 to us for the season so far!

	GW1	GW2	GW3	GW4	GW5	GW6	GW7	GW8	GW9	GW10	GW11	GW12	GW13	GW14	GW15	GW16	GW17	GW18	GW19	GW20	Total
AAFPL Team	84	65	92	44	59	42	59	26	72	35	83	70	83	67	63	51	95	65	73	71	13
Official FPL Team	64	96	77	46	54	39	44	46	71	55	78	66	98	64	78	46	89	59	82	68	7

As always, our Scout Picks will be based on the eye test, stats, and analysis. Let’s first take a look at the fixtures for FPL GW21.

Link to all our FPL GW21 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, best forwards, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW21 Fixtures

FPL GW21 Scout Picks

FPL GW21 Scout Picks – Goalkeeper

After a well earned point at home against Liverpool in GW20, we’re backing Onana (5.1m) and United’s defense to keep a clean sheet against Southampton in GW21! United looked far more solid defensively than they have all season against Liverpool, and will be looking to build on what was a very impressive performance all-round against far weaker opposition in Southampton this mid-week.

While Manchester United go into this game winless in 4, having last got 3 points against rivals Manchester City in mid-December, they have been looking better and better in recent weeks under their new manager. While the stats aren’t great, it’s their fixture this week that has made us choose Onana, with Southampton remaining rock bottom of the league on 6 points in spite of changing their manager recently.

The Saints are also bottom of the goalscoring charts, having hit the back of the net just 12 times so far this season, and are fifth bottom for xG. They’re winless since the start of November, and are going into this game off the back of three successive defeats. Furthermore, their attacking underlying numbers have actually got worse since their change of head coach, with the Saints having created more than 1xG in just 3 of their last 6 games – they only managed 0.25xG against Brentford in GW20.

Despite United’s woes this season (they still sit in 13th), Onana is actually the fourth highest scoring ‘keeper in the game, just six points behind the much more popular Raya…

Further Read: India’s FPL No. 1 Jayanth Reflects on his Stellar 24/25 FPL Season

FPL GW21 Scout Picks – Defenders

This week our we’ve gone for a back 3 comprised of Arsenal’s Gabriel (6.4m), Palace’s Munoz (4.7m) and Newcastle’s Hall (4.9m)!

Arsenal have conceded the fewest goals in the league (18) and have the second lowest xGA, only behind Liverpool. The Gunners are unbeaten since the start of November, and have conceded just 3 goals in their last 5 matches. While Arteta has been criticized in recent weeks, due to Arsenal’s style of play, his team almost always keep the score low and they remain, in my opinion, the best defense in the league.

Gabriel himself offers more than just defensive solidity, averaging 0.29xGI/90, 0.23 of which is xG. Arsenal, and Gabriel in particular, have been very threatening from set pieces this season, especially corners, whereas their opponents this week (Spurs) have been fairly terrible at defending them. Arsenal have scored 9 goals from dead ball situations, by far the most in the division, whereas Spurs have conceded 5 goals from dead balls, the 4th worst in the division, better than only United, Southampton and Wolves. Clean sheets and goals are both on the cards for Gabriel in the north london derby!

Next up we have Palace wing back Munoz, who, despite the recent hype around him in the FPL community, is still a differential sitting at just over 5% ownership! The excitement around the columbian is, in part, due to his recent performances – against Southampton he arguably should have scored, and against Chelsea he could’ve had a couple of assists!

His underlying numbers have also had somewhat of an uptick in recent weeks – he’s averaged 0.29xGI/90 over his last 5 premier league appearances. He’s currently on 2 goals and 2 assists for the season, but his xG suggests he should’ve scored at least a couple more! Palace’s defensive numbers have also picked up since the start of the season, they are no longer conceding at the rate they were at the beginning of the campaign, and are unbeaten in their last three league matches. They’re by no means an elite defensive team, but they’re very solidly mid-table across most defensive stats over the course of the season.

The real reason we’ve gone for Munoz, and perhaps some other Crystal Palace assets, is due to their favourable fixture against Leicester in FPL GW21. Leicester are sixteenth for goals scored and 18th for expected goals in the league. They’ve lost all of their last five games and created more than one expected goals in just one of those matches, managing just 0.22 against Liverpool and 0.19 against Newcastle.

Matchup alert: Munoz vs Leicester City:

Finally we have Newcastle’s Hall. GW20 was the first time in five games that Hall has not returned in FPL, following four back to back to back to back clean sheets and 3 assists across those five matches. Newcastle have one of the most in-form defenses in the league (I’m writing this on January 12th and League Two Bromley just scored against them in the FA Cup…), and Hall is the best defensive asset of the bunch, as he also offers a decent attacking threat.

The underlying numbers suggest that Newcastle’s great defensive form is no fluke, having limited the opposition to less than 1xG in two of those five matches, and just over (1.06 against Ipswich, 1.0 against United and Spurs) in the other three. Outside of Liverpool and Arsenal defenders, Hall is predicted the second most points in FPL GW21 according to Fantasy Football Hub’s points prediction tool, behind only the aforementioned Munoz!

Further Read: Upcoming FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 24/25 FPL Season

FPL GW21 Scout Picks – Midfielders

Salah (13.7m), Palmer (11.4m), Mbeumo (7.8m) and Murphy (5.1m) retain their places in our AAFPL Scout picks team this week, with the only addition to the midfield being Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes (8.3m).

Despite a tricky fixture against Forest, it would be criminal to leave out Salah – we feel like we’re taking a big enough risk not captaining him! He’s the best player for the leaders of the Premier League, so he retains his place.

Salah Season Stats:

• 18 goals (0.86xG/90)
• 13 assists (0.45xA/90)
• 3.95 Shots + 2.03 Key Passes (per 90)

Palmer similarly needs little explanation, and was in contention for the captaincy. Despite a perceived dip in form, the Englishman has still managed 2 double digit hauls in his last three games. While Bournemouth are fairly solid defensively (fifth best for goals against), we still back him to get some sort of attacking return, and, as with Salah, we’re too scared to leave him out!

Palmer Season Stats:

• 13 Goals (0.51xG/90)
• 7 Assists (0.44xA/90)
• 3.56 Shots + 2.85 Key Passes (per 90)

Now onto the more ‘differential options‘ starting with the newcomer, Fernandes! It’s possibly a stretch to call Fernandes a differential – he’s been one of the highest scoring midfielders in FPL since his transfer from sporting in 2020. That being said, due to United’s woes this season, he is less of an essential than he has been in the past – sitting at under 10% ownership. The fact he played 120 minutes is concerning, but due to his importance to the team he’s still nailed on to at least start, if not play 90.

Despite being win-less in 4 in the league, United have dealt some huge blows to some big teams in recent weeks, drawing with both Liverpool and Arsenal in quick succession in the league and cup respectively. Bruno is averaging 0.39xG and 0.28xA/90, which is fairly decent, but lower than it has been in recent seasons, with his goal involvement total for the season sitting at 10 (4 goals and 6 assists). He has been deployed in both deeper and more advanced roles under Amorim, and has thrived in the latter, assisting against Liverpool and scoring against Arsenal in the last two games when deployed in the front 3.

Southampton are the worst team in the league, and it’s important to aggressively target the fixtures – Due to Dalot’s suspension in the FA Cup, it’s likely that Diallo will shift to RWB and that Bruno will occupy one of the three forward positions. It’s not a certainty, but it’s more likely now due to the suspension (yes FA cup suspensions do carry over to the prem).

Mbeumo, as mentioned, had an outstanding GW20, bringing home 19 points for the managers who held onto him for this long! That makes it 26 points in 2 games, having scored 7 points in GW19 against Arsenal. We know how important form is to Mbeumo, after he went on a crazy goal scoring run at the start of the season, bagging 8 in the first 9 games of the campaign. We’re hoping that he can continue this form going into GW21, in spite of the (on paper) challenging fixture that Brentford have against Manchester City…

Having said this, City had one of the worst defenses in the league in December, and Brentford are a bit of a bogey team for them, with the Bees doing the double over the Citizens in the 22/23 season – anything could happen, especially considering Brentford’s home record!…

Completing the midfield is Newcastle’s Murphy, who went from Championship with Sheffield Wednesday in 2020 to the Champions League with Newcastle in 2022, it’s been quite a journey for the english winger! He bagged the AAFPL Scout Picks team an assist in GW20, taking him to 10 goal involvements in 20 games so far this season. He was given a break mid-week, not even making the bench for Newcastle’s league two match against Bromley, so he should be well rested and ready to go against Wolves in GW21!

Murphy plays on the right wing for Newcastle, meaning he’ll be up against Ait-Nouri this week, the defender with the most goal involvements so far this season – he’ll have ample opportunity to get forwards and should be able to exploit the space that RAN leaves when he bombs forwards. Murphy is Newcastle’s most creative player, and is averaging 0.43xA/90 this season, delivering ball after ball into the box for Isak to finish off. Against Spurs in GW20 he created numerous chances for Isak, and delivered a sumptuous ball in the first half that Isak subsequently finished off.

Further Read: FPL Midfielders Watch: Top Assets to Target for Gameweeks 21-24

FPL GW21 Scout Picks – Forwards

We’ve gone for a strike partnership this week of Mateta (7.2m) and Isak (9.3m) – Haaland was a consideration, but he just misses out…

Isak retains his place for the 6th gameweek in a row, and this time he’s our captain! He scored again in GW20, taking his scoring run all the way up to 7 consecutive games. He could’ve had a couple more against Spurs too – accruing 1.41xG over the course of the match and failing to hit the target in a couple of decent situations.

His 0.73xG/90 is elite, but it’s his finishing that really catches the eye. While Newcastle do create numerous chances for him, his ability to beat 2 or 3 players then finish it off is incredible, and his versatility means that his goal catalogue makes for great viewing. Wolves have conceded the most goals in the league and have the fifth worst xGA. Despite Wolves’ new manager bounce they remain vulnerable defensively, and Newcastle are in such good form that I can only see this game going one way!

Isak is somewhat of an injury worry, but having been rested against Bromley we think he will have recovered in time for Wolves mid-week.

Finally we have Mr Boom Boom Boom Boom (Mateta’s in the room) himself, and as the song goes – “there ain’t no striker better than Jean-Phillipe Mateta!” Palace face Leicester who have conceded the 2nd most goals in the league, while Palace have been looking far more menacing in attack in recent games. Sarr was a consideration, either as well as or instead of Mateta, but we felt that Mateta was the best fit for this team, and that a triple up was perhaps too much…

Mateta is not a volume shot taker, which worried me at the start of the season, but he has proven that he can continue to score at a reasonable rate without taking 3+ shots per 90. He’s under performing his xG by 2 so far this season, but with Palace starting to pick up some momentum in recent weeks, now looks like a great time to hop on the Mateta bandwagon, especially considering their upcoming fixture run! The main reason we’ve gone for Mateta is their fixture against Leicester, as the foxes continue to be one of the worst defenses in the league.

Further Read: FPL GW21 Tips- Transfer Planning, Mbeumo and Munoz Thoughts

Full FPL GW21 Scout Selection Team

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW21:

FPL Gameweek 21 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW21 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Top FPL GW21 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)
Ultimate FPL Assistant Manager Chip Guide: Rules, Tips & More
FPL GW21 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More
India’s FPL No. 1 Jayanth Reflects on his Stellar 24/25 FPL Season
Upcoming FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 24/25 FPL Season
FPL GW21 Tips- Transfer Planning, Mbeumo and Munoz Thoughts
Matchday 21 Predictions and Prizes- Sleeper Pick’em League

Link to all our FPL GW21 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 21 of the 2024/25 FPL Season?

We’ll be covering differential picks, transfer targets, Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Scout picks, Gameweek preview, Captaincy metrics, FPL GW21 tips, and more. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for all our blogs. We’ll also be posting regularly about the same on our social media accounts so follow us on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook and keep our notification ON.