It is good that we all took a break from FPL. The FA Cup was fun. However, it has led to more problems for FPL managers. Injuries to key assets like Trent and Bowen have caused a headache for managers, who had to deal with Son and Salah conundrum already. Nonetheless, it is a great opportunity to look at exciting players in order to move away from the template. In this blog, we take a look at the top six differentials(<10% TSB) to consider ahead of the FPL GW21 Deadline.
Link to all our FPL GW21 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW21 Differential Picks ( <10% ownership)
Diogo Jota vs Bournemouth(A), £7.8m, TSB:3.0%
Diogo Jota has been at his explosive best since returning from injury. The Portuguese international has registered 3 assists and 1 goal in 60 minutes of action, spread across three games.
The above image indicates a comparison of key stats between Salah and Jota across the past three seasons. The NPxG data is a clear indication of the fact that Jota is as big a goal threat as Salah is from open play.
| Player | 2023-24 | 2022-23 | 2021-22 |
| Jota | 75% | 33% | 48% |
| Salah | 60% | 41% | 54% |
As we can see from the above table, Jota’s big chance conversion rate is as good as Salah, if not better. We gotta bear in mind the fact that Salah takes pens. That makes his stats a little skewed!
Meanwhile, only Newcastle(7), and Chelsea(4) conceded more big chances than Liverpool’s FPL GW21 opponents Bournemouth In Gameweek 20. Furthermore, in the reverse fixture back in GW2, Jota registered a goal and an assist, getting 12 points in the process!
Liverpool could also potentially double in GW25 as well based on Carabao Cup & FA Cup results.
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 21 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Anthony Elanga vs Brentford(A), £5.1m, TSB:2.0%
Anthony Elanga is having an amazing season. The Former Manchester United man has already registered 10 attacking returns(4G 6A) in FPL so far, which is more than all of his previous seasons combined(3G 4A).
Since Nuno has taken over as manager, the youngster has been in even better form. He has registered 1 goal and 3 assists in the last 3 matches. Only 8 players have got more FPL points in this period than the Swedish international.
Nottingham Forest key stats comparison before and after Nuno’s arrival
| Metric | GWs 1-17 | GW18 onwards |
|---|---|---|
| Big Chances (Rank) | 127 (16th) | 7 (8th) |
| Goals (Rank) | 17 (18th) | 7 (2nd) |
| xG (Rank) | 18.93 (17th) | 4.95 (10th) |
| Shots in the box (Rank) | 127 (17th) | 24 (12th) |
In the first 17 GWs this season, Nottingham Forest had the third-worst record in the league for goals, fourth-worst tally in the league for xG, and big chances. A stark contrast to the tally post-arrival of Nuno as we can see from the above table.
The number of goals scored stands out, as Nuno’s men have faced tough opposition- in Man Utd, Newcastle, and Bournemouth in this period.
The Swedish international is top for goal involvements among Forest players this season. He is also top for shots in the box(27), and big chances created(9) among his compatriots. In a nutshell, you are getting the best asset of one of the most in form teams in front of goal, with a new manager bounce, at a mere £5.1.
Note: Elanga missed Forest’s FA cup tie due to a minor knock. We will not be hearing from Nuno before the FPL GW21 deadline. Do keep an eye on any potential news from the training ground!
Further Read: Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 23/24 Season
Pascal Gross vs Wolves(H), £6.4m, TSB: 4.3%
If we were to ask you a question at the beginning of the season, who is the best asset from Brighton, most people would have mentioned Mitoma, March, Estupinian, maybe even Dunk. Most managers wouldn’t have mentioned Pascal Gross.
Yet, here we are again, much like last season, with the German coming out on top among the Seagulls’ assets. In the 2022-23 season, Gross registered more points(159), more xPts(145.52), and more goal involvements(17) than any of his compatriots.
Data from Fantasy Football Hub. For Opta Stats, Player Comparisons, Predicted FPL Points, FPL Planner, Tickers, etc.- Subscribe with a 30% discount here.
Fast forward 6 months, and nothing has changed. The 32-year-old is top for goal involvements and Points, again. More importantly, he has started all but one of the matches when he has been fit. Besides, he has played 90 minutes in 12 out of the last 13 league matches.
Brighton have a dream run of games coming up. Seven out of their next eight fixtures have an FDR rating of 2. Now is the time to pile up on their assets, again!
Gross is second in the league for chances created(52) so far this season, behind only Bruno(54). If all this doesn’t is convincing enough, then we will leave you with one last stat- In this very fixture last season, Gross scored 2 goals in a 6-0 win for the Seagulls.
Further Read: Best FPL GW21 Midfielders | Salah & Son FPL Replacements
Pedro Neto vs Brighton(A), £5.6m, TSB:1.5%
Wolves may not have missed Pedro Neto so much, while he was out injured. However, us FPL managers have missed him dearly. After all, the Portuguese had registered an attacking return in each of his last 8 appearances before his injury!
Despite missing half the season, Neto still has the joint second-most assists(8) this season, behind only Watkins(11). Guess what, he came off the bench in the FA Cup tie against Brentford and got another assist. The young winger returns from injury at a time when Wolves have a decent run of games.
For starters, Brighton are yet to keep a clean sheet at home this season. Furthermore, Gary O’Neil’s men are unbeaten in their last 6 home games, winning 4 and losing 2. The remaining two games- Chelsea(A), and Spurs(A) may be trickier. Having said that, Spurs have the third-worst tally in the league for big chances conceded(55)
Note: Wolves have one more fixture, their FA Cup replay against Brentford before their FPL GW21 fixture. However, that will happen after the Gameweek deadline.
Further Read: Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 23/24 Season
Alejandro Garnacho vs Spurs(H), £4.8m, TSB: 5.1%
Alejandro Garnacho has arguably been Manchester United’s best player this season. The Argentinean international has amassed 5 attacking returns(3G 2A) so far this season. Each of them has come since GW13.
The 19-year-old has started every single match since GW11 onwards. In fact, he is the only Man Utd outfield player to do so! So much for festive congestion and team rotation( ignore the joke).
Data from Fantasy Football Hub. For Opta Stats, Player Comparisons, Predicted FPL Points, FPL Planner, Tickers, etc.- Subscribe with a 30% discount here.
Since Gameweek 11, only 3 players have had more shots in the box than Garnacho(25). In addition to that, his %xGI is sixth in the league in this period, for players who have played 400 or minutes!
Erik Ten Hag’s men have an attractive run of games coming up. Not only do they have 6 of their next 9 matches with an FDR rating 2, but also each of their six games are against teams who sit in the bottom eight for big chances conceded this season.
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 21 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Alfie Doughty vs Burnley(A), £4.4m, TSB: 2.3%
Alfie Doughty has arguably been Luton Town’s best player this season. The wingback has registered 6 attacking returns(5A 1G) in FPL this season. In fact, you could argue he has one of the stand-out defenders in the league!
Five of Doughty’s six attacking returns have come in the last five GWs. Besides, in this period, only Mavropanos(27), Trent Alexander-Arnold(26), and Senesi(26) have registered more points than the Luton man(25). We have to bear in mind the fact that Luton kept only one clean sheet in this period.
As we can see from the above image, Doughty is sixth-best in the league for xGI(3.00) among defenders so far this season. He is also third-best in the league for key passes(35) among defenders, behind only Trent(49) and Trippier(52).
Luton Town have a good run of games coming up. Two of their next four matches are against two of the fellow teams in the bottom three. Beyond that, 2 of their following 5 matches have an FDR rating of 2.
| Team | Goals conceded from Set Pieces | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 8 | 19th |
| Brighton | 5 | 10th (joint) |
| Newcastle | 5 | 10th (joint) |
| Sheffield Utd | 7 | 16th |
| Man Utd | 6 | 12th |
Each of Luton’s next five opponents are susceptible from set pieces. Doughty is second-best in the league for successful crosses from corners(20), and successful crosses from free kicks(6), behind only Trippier.
Luton may well have a double GW in the near future. Therefore, it would be wise to go early on Doughty rather than waiting until the ‘Double Trouble’ (ignore the pun) comes around!
Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW21
FPL GW21 Scout Selection- Top Picks with Stats and Analysis
Top FPL Gameweek 21 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW21 Tips & Preview – Transfer Priorities, Wildcard? & More
FPL GW21 Wildcard Guide- Tips, Players to Target and Best Drafts
Top FPL GW21 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL Gameweek 21 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW21 Transfer Targets and Watchlist
Best FPL GW21 Midfielders | Salah & Son FPL Replacements
Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 23/24 Season
FPL GW21 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Link to all our FPL GW21 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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K K Anirudh
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