Welcome back to another captaincy metrics blog, with Haaland still a doubt for FPL GW21 the captaincy decision is once again interesting. The popular FPL Gameweek 21 captain picks include Saka, Jota, Foden, Palamer and Watkins. Let’s see who amongst the five players tops the captaincy metrics this week, will it be Saka or would someone else be taking the top spot?
The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” last season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
This season the metrics has a 13/20 returns record
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Total metrics points: 308 points (26+4+14+40+12+12+4+30+16+16+2+32+14+14+4+26*+6+4*+6+32*)
Link to all our FPL GW21 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW21 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW21 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Saka comes out on top of the captaincy poll for FPL Gameweek 21 with 21% of the votes and he faces a Crystal Palace(H). Palmer is second in the captaincy poll with 21% of the votes and will be facing Fulham(H). Watkins comes 3rd with 16% of the votes playing Everton(A), Foden, and Jota round up the captaincy metrics options this week.
PS: Haaland is not considered for the metrics this week as there’s no indication that he’ll be fit to start vs Newcastle come Saturday. Man City’s next game after GW21 is only on the 26th of Jan vs Spurs in the FA Cup & he might be reintroduced in that game!
Further Read: FPL GW21 Scout Selection- Top Picks with Stats and Analysis
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 21 Captain picks
Saka who was back amongst the goals vs Fulham in GW20 takes the top spot, he has registered a whopping 20 shots inside the box, 5 big chances, and an impressive xG of 2.36 in the last six games. Saka also tops the chances created metrics amongst the five players, taking the top spot in all four of the metrics in this table(SiB, Chances created, Big chances total, xG)
Palmer is behind Saka with an xG of 2.13, but only 5 shots inside the box and 2 big chances in the last six games. He has also created 12 chances in the last six games.
Jota is a close 3rd registering an xG of 1.58 in the last six games along with 2 big chances, and 7 chances created.
Foden is 4th with just one big chance in the last six games and xG of 1.37, he has however created 14 chances which is the joint highest amongst the five players in the table
Only an xG of 0.78 separates Saka, Palmer, and Jota!
Surprisingly Watkins is last with only an xG of 1.11 in the last six games, he has also had only one big chance in the last six games.
Further Read: FPL GW21 Tips & Preview – Transfer Priorities, Wildcard? & More
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Liverpool’s dominance in the last six games can be seen in this table, the Reds have registered a whopping 15.22 xG during the period. They have also had 84 shots inside the box which is the highest and 19 big chances which is joint 2nd highest amongst the five teams in the table.
Chelsea are second in the table with an xG of 11.63. The Blues are also joint 2nd with 19 big chances in the last six games.
Man City are 3rd with an xG of 11.24, Man City are also joint top for big chances(20) over the last six games.
Arsenal are fourth amongst the five teams with an xG of 11.15 in the last six games, registering 20 big chances in the last six games. They are however top amongst the five teams for shots inside the box(74) during the period
Aston Villa are last only with an xG of 10.13 in the last six games.
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 21 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW21
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Arsenal have a 87% chance of scoring at least one goal and a 40% chance of scoring 2+ goals which ensures a top spot for Arsenal.
Liverpool & Man City both have an 86% chance of scoring at least one goal and a 38% chance of scoring 2+ goals which ensures they both take the joint second spot.
Chelsea are 4th with an 85% chance of scoring at least one goal and a 36% chance of scoring 2+ goals
Aston Villa are last with a 75% chance of scoring at least one goal and a 22% chance of scoring 2+ goals.
Further Read: Top FPL GW21 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 21 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Saka tops the projection rank table with an anytime returns projection of 56% and a 6.2 points projection in FPL Gameweek 20 vs Crystal Palace(H)
Palmer is 2nd with an anytime returns projection of 55% and a points projection of 5.7 against Fulham(H)
Jota is 3rd with an anytime returns projection of 47% and a points projection of 4.5 against Bournemouth(A). Watkins is also 3rd with an anytime returns projection of 45% and a points projection of 4.8.
Lastly, Foden finishes 5th with an anytime returns projection of 38% and a points projection of 4.5 ahead of facing Newcastle(A)
Further Read: Best FPL GW21 Midfielders | Salah & Son FPL Replacements
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 21 Captaincy metric analysis
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
Saka takes the top spot with a CRF of only 7, Jota is second with a CRF of 9.
Palmer is a close 3rd with a cumulative rank factor of 10. Foden is 4th with a CRF of 14 and Watkins takes the last spot with a CRF of 18.
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW21
FPL GW21 Scout Selection- Top Picks with Stats and Analysis
Top FPL Gameweek 21 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW21 Tips & Preview – Transfer Priorities, Wildcard? & More
FPL GW21 Wildcard Guide- Tips, Players to Target and Best Drafts
Top FPL GW21 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL Gameweek 21 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW21 Transfer Targets and Watchlist
Best FPL GW21 Midfielders | Salah & Son FPL Replacements
Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 23/24 Season
FPL GW21 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Link to all our FPL GW21 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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