Welcome back to another captaincy metrics blog, This week the captaincy decision seems to be between Haaland and Salah with Haaland playing Aston Villa(A) whereas Liverpool have Sheffield United(A). The other FPL Gameweek 15 Captain Picks include the likes of Darwin, Saka, and Son. Let’s see who amongst the five players tops the captaincy metrics this week, will it be Haaland again on top, or will Salah outrank Haaland?
The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” last season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
This season the metrics has a 11/14 returns record
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Total metrics points: 236 points (26+4+14+40+12+12+4+30+16+16+2+32+14+14)
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FPL GW15 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW15 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Salah comes out on top of the captaincy poll for FPL Gameweek 14 with 64% of the votes. Haaland is second in the captaincy poll with 13% of the votes. Saka is third with 10% of the votes and will be playing against Luton Town(A) in FPL GW15, Son and Nunez wrap up the top five in the captaincy poll this week.
Further Read: Top FPL GW15 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 15 Captain picks
Haaland tops our picks for Underlying Numbers. With 22 Shots Inside the Box, 11 Big Chances in total, and an xG total of 6.21, he leads the Attacking Stats factor for players in consideration. He has managed to edge out Mohammed Salah.
Salah comes in behind Haaland for Underlying Numbers. With 12 Shots Inside the Box, 9 Big Chances in total, and an xG total of 4.64 over the last 6 matches. He’s joint top for chances created with 17 chances created in the last six games
Darwin comes in third with 17 Shots Inside the Box, 8 Big Chances, and an xG total of 3.04. He has Shots inside the box than Salah.
Son with 9 Shots Inside the Box, 2 Big chances, and an xG total of 1.70, takes the fourth spot.
Saka who has been relatively silent in the league over the past few games is the last amongst the five players in terms of xG(0.47) with just 4 shots inside the box in the last six games. He’s however the joint highest for most number of chances created(17) amongst the five players in the last six games.
Further Read: FPL GW15 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Man City have the best underlying numbers of the teams in comparison to the last 6 games. A total of 67 Shots Inside the Box and 22 Big Chances, helps in boosting their xG to 13.51, which is the highest of all teams in question.
Liverpool are behind Manchester City and take the second spot with 66 Shots Inside the Box, 20 Big Chances in Total, and xG at 12.77.
Arsenal come behind Liverpool at 4th with 61 Shots Inside the Box, 15 Big Chances in Total, and an xG of 10.82.
Surprisingly, Spurs take the last spot with just 41 Shots Inside the Box, 10 Big Chances in Total, and an xG of 7.04
Further Read: FPL GW15 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW15
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Liverpool take the first spot due to Sheffield United’s poor defensive form, with a 93% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this Gameweek and a 62% chance of scoring more than 2 goals this Gameweek.
Arsenal are behind Liverpool with a 91% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this week, and a 55% chance of scoring more than 2 goals vs Luton(A)
Both Spurs and Man City have an 85% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this week and a 36% chance of scoring more than 2 goals taking the joint 4th rank.
Further Read: Top FPL GW15 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 15 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Erling Haaland has the highest Anytime Returns Projections at 70%, while his Projected Points stand at 7.7 for the week giving him the joint first spot.
Son has an Anytime Returns Projection at 68%, and the Projected Points at 7.8 this week, giving him the joint first spot.
Salah has an Anytime Returns Projections at 64% and Projected Points at 7.0, which puts him 3rd in this table.
Darwin has an Anytime Returns Projections at 60% and Projected Points at 5.5, which puts him joint 4th in this table.
Lastly, Saka has an Anytime Returns Projections of 52% while the Projected Points stand at 5.8 which puts him joint 4th along with Darwin.
Further Read: FPL GW15 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 15 Captaincy metric analysis
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
Haaland tops the metrics with a CRF of 7, finishing above Salah who ended up with a CRF of 8. The gap is really close with a CRF difference of only One.
Darwin is 3rd with a CRF of 10. Son and Saka finish fourth and last respectively with a CRF of 14 and 16.
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW15
Premier League Players who will miss PL due to AFCON
FPL Gameweek 15 Transfer Tips: Two Players To Buy, Hold & Sell
Top FPL Gameweek 15 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW15 Scout Selection- Top Picks based on Stats and Matchups
Top FPL GW15 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW15 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
FPL GW15 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 23/24 Season
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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