Top FPL GW15 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

With a quick turnaround for Gameweek 15, it is important to break away from the template with some lower-owned punts to catch up the ranks. In this blog, we take a look at the top six differentials(<10% TSB) to consider not just for FPL GW15 but also in the long term!

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FPL GW15 Differential Picks ( <10% ownership)

Phil Foden vs Aston Villa(A), £7.0m, TSB: 9.8%

Since GW4, Foden has started in 11 out of the 12 games. During the period only Haaland(944) and Walker(990) have played more minutes than Foden(901), it’s safe to say Foden is a regular starter for Man City now. The suspensions to Rodri and Grealish & injury concerns to Doku also mean he’ll be guaranteed to start vs Villa(A) in GW15.

In the last six games, Foden has registered an xGI of 3.15 which is third highest amongst midfielders with only Mbeumo(5.27) and Salah(4.79) ahead of him.

In the last six matches, Foden is also top for shots on target(9), second for shots(16) and shots inside the box(12), and joint sixth for big chances(4) amongst midfielders as seen above. Aston Villa last registered a clean sheet in GW6 and have since gone 8 games without a clean sheet.

Beyond GW15 as well, Foden has favorable fixtures apart from the blank in GW18. Foden could be a good option during the festive period if you can plan to manage the blank in GW18 effectively!

Matheus Cunha vs Burnley(H), £5.6m, TSB: 1.7%

Matheus Cunha has played all games so far this season and is a sure starter in the Wolves 11. In the last three games, he has picked up 2 goals and an assist for Wolves showing decent form. Wolves under Gary O’Neil play an attacking brand of football which bodes well for Cunha.

Wolves will welcome back Lemina and Gomes in midfield who missed GW14 due to suspension, Pedro Neto is also not too far away from making a return which improves the creativity of the Wolves side.

Burnley have conceded 32 goals so far this season which is the second-highest in the league only behind Sheffield United and their only clean sheet came against Sheffield United. The Clarets will also be without centre-back Jordan Beyer who is suspended for GW15. Wolves have good fixtures in GW16 and GW17 as well against Forest(H) & West Ham(A), again two teams who are not strong defensively.

The Wolves forward has a great matchup vs Burnley at home who have conceded a whopping 22 chances through the middle in the last six games which is the 5th highest in the league during the period.

Martin Dubravka vs Everton(A), £3.9m, TSB: 1.1%

Nick Pope was taken off during the win vs Manchester United due to a dislocated shoulder. It looks like the injury is serious and Pope could be out for at least some weeks.

Nick Pope injury update:

This provides us with a gift at 3.9 million in the form of Martin Dubravka. A 3.9 million starting keeper from the Top 2 defense in the league is too difficult to ignore. Newcastle despite the injuries have been in good form and getting good results.

Newcastle Defense Rank this season:

• Clean Sheets- 1st
• Expected Goals Conceded- 3rd
• Goals Conceded- 2nd
• Big Chances Conceded- 1st

Newcastle’s next 5 fixtures are really good- Everton(A), Spurs(A), Fulham(H), Luton(A), Forest(H). There is good scope for clean sheet in these fixtures as seen in the clean sheet probability by DraftHound.

If you have Areola as your Goalkeeper, it might be a good strategy to partner him with Dubravka as they rotate really well as seen below. Areola to Dubravka is also not a bad move as Dubravka has good clean sheet potential in the upcoming games.

There are rumors that Newcastle United can move for De Gea who is a free agent, depending on PL approval he can even be registered before the January window opens. It’s safer to replace Turner/Bench keeper with Dubravka incase Newcastle get De Gea. Dubravka should be safe for atleast 3-4 games in the worst case scenario!

Dejan Kulusevski vs West Ham(H), £7.0m, TSB: 1.9%

Kulusevski grabbed the headlines and put in a brilliant performance in the 3-3 draw vs Manchester City getting in a goal and assist. He also grabbed all 3 bonus points as well. In a slightly tactical change, Kulusevski is playing as a No.10 at times in the last two games for Spurs due to the unavailability of many players like Maddison. This has worked well in the last 2 games as he has looked really sharp and also puts himself in good creating/scoring opportunities.

Matchup alert:

Kulusevski will be up against a West Ham side who have kept only one clean sheet this season from 14 games. West Ham have also conceded 60 chances down the center this season which is the highest among all teams. This matchup combined with Kulusevski’s new role could work out well in GW15.

West Ham’s defense away from home is even more worse. They have conceded 14 goals from 7 away games(0 clean sheets) this season. In fact, West Ham have conceded 22 big chances from 7 away games this season- 4th highest among all teams. Only Luton, Aston Villa and West Ham have conceded more Big Chances away from home this season and all these teams have played 8 away games compared to West Ham’s seven.

Dominic Solanke vs CRY(A), £6.5m, TSB: 5.8%

Dominic Solanke could emerge as a great option for the festive period with Bournemouth in decent form and a good run of fixtures coming up for the Cherries including a home game against Luton in GW16 and a fixture against Forest(A) in BGW18

The Cherries forward has scored 7 goals and grabbed an assist so far this season, his NPxGI of 8.19 is fourth amongst forwards. Solanke has also started all games so far this season and has completed 90 minutes 12 times. It’s safe to say he’s nailed on to start week in and week out which is essential in this festive period where games come thick and fast.

Over the last three games, Solanke is joint top for big chances(6) along with Haaland.

Solanke stats in the last three games

GW14 vs Aston Villa(H): xGI-1.35, 3 big chance
GW13 vs Sheffield United(A): xGI-0.65, 1 Big chance
GW12 vs Newcastle United(H): xGI-1.31, 2 Big chances

Top FPL GW15 Ultra Differential Pick ( <1% ownership)

Willian vs NFO(H), £5.3m, TSB: 0.5%

Willian is a great differential option to consider with excellent fixtures, Fulham have the best attacking schedule from GW15-19. All four of Willian’s goal contributions(3 goals + assist) have come in home games and Fulham have three home games in the next four fixtures.

Forest poor form: Nottingham Forest have lost four of their last five games, conceding 10 goals in the process.

He was on the bench vs Liverpool but the benching should have been just to keep him fresh for the important games ahead during the busy festive period!

He’s also on penalties, scoring twice in GW13 vs Wolves at home. Willian’s penalty record is great, having scored all seven of his Premier League penalties. Only three others have better 100% records in the competition(Yaya Toure, Neves & Berbatov)

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW15

Premier League Players who will miss PL due to AFCON
FPL Gameweek 15 Transfer Tips: Two Players To Buy, Hold & Sell
Top FPL Gameweek 15 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW15 Scout Selection- Top Picks based on Stats and Matchups
Top FPL GW15 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW15 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
FPL GW15 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 23/24 Season 

Link to all our FPL GW15 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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