The Long wait is over. No more international breaks for the next 3 months or so. We now have 6 GWs coming up, in just over a month. This is the time of the season when lot of climbing and falling happens in FPL, given that fixtures come in thick and fast. It is vital to get each and every transfer spot on, bearing in mind the fixtures coming up in the festive period. In this blog, we take a look at the top six differentials(<10% TSB) to consider not just for FPL GW13 but also in the long-term!
Link to all our FPL GW13 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!
Top FPL GW13 Differential Picks (<10% ownership)
Reece James vs Newcastle (A), £5.3m, TSB: 4.4%
There hasn’t been a season where we have all not hedged our bets on Reece James, only for him to disappoint us with an injury.
With Reece James, more than the numbers, the above tweet where he talks about his fitness as it stands, matters more. Anyways, now let us get to the numbers!
Believe it or not, only 8 players have created more big chances this season than Chelsea’s Right back (8). This is inspite of him playing only 243 minutes so far this season.
| Name | £M | Appearances | Minutes | Key Passes | Big Chances Created | Assists | FPL Points |
| Trippier | £7 | 12 (0) | 1039 | 33 | 8 | 6 | 69 |
| James | £5.3 | 5 (2) | 246 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 10 |
| Kaboré | £4 | 11 (2) | 781 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 23 |
| Ajer | £4.5 | 10 (3) | 637 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 21 |
| Alexander-Arnold | £7.9 | 10 (1) | 781 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 38 |
| Pedro Porro | £5.2 | 11 (0) | 987 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 45 |
| Estupiñan | £5 | 6 (0) | 495 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 25 |
| Cash | £5.2 | 12 (0) | 1027 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 45 |
Among defenders, only Trippier (8) has created more big chances than James (5). The Former has played nearly 5 times the minutes as the latter. He also features in the top 10 (out of those playing 200+ mins) for shots in the box per 90.
Chelsea’s fixtures are about to take a turn. 8 of the next 12 fixtures are against teams in the bottom half of the table. Although, their next 2 games are against Newcastle and Brighton, these are two teams struggling with key injuries across the starting XI.
Chelsea’ s defensive stats
- Big chances conceded -22 (4th best)
- Goals conceded- 16 (joint 6th best)
- NPxGA- 13.8 (3rd best)
Chelsea are getting their key players back from injury. Following James, Lavia and Nkunku are also close to returning. The Blues have the best fixture run in the next couple of months. They may be the team to target soon. We suggest to jump on them early to be ahead of the curve, and James is the best defender to target, given the upside!
Odsone Edouard vs Luton (A), £5.5m, TSB: 4.0%
Odsone Edouard scored in Crystal Palace’s 3-2 defeat at the hands of Everton, at home in Gameweek 12. That took his goal tally for the season to 5, matching last season’s record already. That was also Edouard’s first goal since GW5.
| Edouard (with Eze in XI) | Edouard (without Eze in XI) | |
| Games Played | 8 | 4 |
| Goals Scored | 5 | 0 |
As we can see from the above table, the Crystal Palace striker is a different player when Eze starts, when compared to when he doesn’t start.
The Eagles have the best set of fixtures in the next three GWs. Luton, West Ham, and Bournemouth, are the worst, third worst, and fourth worst in the league, respectively for big chances conceded. The Palace striker could be a very good three week punt!
Pro Tip: Crystal Palace play Brighton(H) in Gameweek 18, which is a blank GW. So if you do have a fifth attacker in your squad and can afford to bench Edouard in GWs 16 and 17 when Roy Hodgson’s men play Liverpool and Man City, then Edouard can even be a long term pick.
Further Read: FPL GW13-18 Fixture Swing Analysis | Teams & Players to Target
Raheem Sterling vs Newcastle (A), £6.9m, TSB: 7.5%
Raheem Sterling scored 1 of Chelsea’s 4 goals against Man City last time out. That took his goal contribution tally to 8 (4 G 4 A) for the season. 5 of those (2 G 3 A) have come in the last 5 starts.
As stated earlier, the Blues’ fixture run is among the best in the league. Six of the next nine games have an FDR rating of 2. Opponents, Newcastle will be without two of their first-choice back 4, and indeed Lewis Hall- who is on loan from Chelsea.
Sterling is second only to Jackson for big chances and shots in the box among Chelsea players. He has had more double-digit hauls than any of his teammates.
There is a case to be made for picking Palmer over Sterling. However, each of the former’s goals have come from the penalty spot. Besides, we know the explosiveness that Raheem Sterling can offer, from previous FPL seasons.
| Gameweek | Big Chances | xG |
| 1 | 5 (3rd best) | 1.28 |
| 11 | 6 (best) | 4.04 (best) |
| 12 | 5 (2nd best) | 2.96 (2nd best) |
The above table is significant, as these are the only games in which Reece James started. His fitness significantly improves Chelsea’s attack. In games James has started, the Blues have registered 16 big chances in 3 matches, whereas they have only registered 24 big chances in the remaining 9 matches he hasn’t started.
Besides, since GW7, Pochettino’s men are top for xG and big chances in the league. But most significantly, the West Londoners have scored the second most number of goals (16), behind only Aston Villa (17), in this period.
Meanwhile, Chelsea’s FPL GW13 opposition Newcastle are one of Raheem Sterling’s favourites. The Englishman has registered 8 goals and 2 assists in the league against the Magpies. In all competitions, only against Watford and Bournemouth has he scored more goals!
Further Read: FPL GW13 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based On Eye Test & Stats
Dominic Solanke vs Sheffield United (A), £6.4m, TSB: 3.8%
Bournemouth picked up the standout result of GW12, as they ran out 2-0 winners over Newcastle at the Vitality stadium. Dominic Solanke scored both the goals for Cherries, and claimed all 3 bonus points, to register a 13 point haul.
The pair of goals against Eddie Howe’s men took the striker’s goal tally to 6, matching last season’s tally already. Given the fact that Bournemouth have a great run of games in the upcoming festive period, Solanke is the standout option among forwards in FPL.
The Cherries man has the third best record in the league for %GI ( % of goals involved in when on the pitch) with 64%, behind only Pedro Neto (69%), and Lyle Foster (71%). He also has the third best tally in the league for shots in the box (30), behind only Watkins (35) and Haaland (44).
The Englishman has the 14th best tally in FPL for xPts, above the likes of Alvarez, Maddison, Foden, and Trippier. Considering the fact no team has conceded more shots, shots in the box, big chances, goals than Sheffield United, at home, this is the right time to bring Solanke in!
Solanke is also ranked 4th for expected points among Forwards over the next three games based on the DraftHound predicted points model.
Top FPL GW13 Ultra Differential Picks ( <1% ownership)
Abdoulaye Doucouré vs Man Utd(H), £5.5m, TSB: 0.7%
It is not the first time we are putting the Everton midfielder in the list this season. We are sure it won’t be the last either. Because nobody seems to want him in their FPL teams. We have no idea why!
Doucouré registered a goal and an assist last time out against Crystal Palace, at Selhurst Park. That 12 point haul, meant that the Frenchman now has 6 goal contributions ( 4 G 2 A) this season.
| Name | £M | App | Mins | S | In | BC | xG | G | xGI | GI | KP | BCC | Pts |
| Salah | £13 | 12(0) | 1046 | 38 | 29 | 14 | 8.74 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 26 | 11 | 101 |
| Mbeumo | £6.8 | 12(0) | 1080 | 34 | 25 | 11 | 7.08 | 6 | 10.7 | 9 | 19 | 2 | 74 |
| Bowen | £7.7 | 12(0) | 1079 | 33 | 27 | 10 | 5.07 | 8 | 6.4 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 75 |
| A.Doucoure | £5.5 | 12(0) | 1038 | 20 | 16 | 9 | 4.59 | 4 | 5.4 | 6 | 16 | 1 | 52 |
| Sterling | £6.9 | 12(1) | 991 | 24 | 19 | 8 | 2.86 | 4 | 4.7 | 8 | 15 | 2 | 60 |
| Mitoma | £6.6 | 12(2) | 981 | 22 | 19 | 8 | 2.78 | 3 | 5.2 | 7 | 17 | 4 | 53 |
| Souček | £4.9 | 11(1) | 810 | 18 | 17 | 7 | 3.05 | 3 | 3.5 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 40 |
| Son | £9.7 | 12(0) | 983 | 31 | 22 | 7 | 4.55 | 8 | 6.7 | 9 | 19 | 5 | 82 |
| Palmer | £5.2 | 10(4) | 605 | 19 | 11 | 7 | 4.74 | 4 | 6.5 | 7 | 14 | 5 | 47 |
| Saka | £8.6 | 11(0) | 948 | 22 | 16 | 6 | 4.15 | 4 | 7.5 | 10 | 27 | 6 | 71 |
Everton’s midfielder has the fourth best tally in the league for big chances, among midfielders. In fact, only Jarrod Bowen (10) has had more big chances than Doucouré (9) from open play.
There is a reason why we believe everyone is sleeping on Doucouré, and in general Everton assets. That is the perception of Sean Dyche’s teams being this team that defends deep, and doesn’t create chances or score a bunch of goals.
| Team | Big Chances | xG | Shots |
| Everton | 33 | 19 | 167 |
| Spurs | 30 | 19.2 | 192 |
| Arsenal | 27 | 21.86 | 174 |
| Man Utd | 25 | 17.23 | 178 |
The above table absolutely dismisses that perception. As we can see, Everton’s stats are right up there with some of the best attacks in the league. The shots tally in the most important, as it indicates the sheer volume of attacking actions Everton take these days, under Dyche.
Here is how we would sum it up- In Doucouré you are getting the best asset from one of the best attacking teams in the league, at a price of £5.5m. Make of it what you will!
Further Read: Premier League Players who will miss PL due to AFCON
Anthony Elanga vs Brighton (H), £5.0m, TSB: 0.8%
Anthony Elanga scored in the 3-2 defeat at the London stadium a fortnight back. He now has 5 goal contributions (2 G 3 A) this season, matching his previous best tally. 3 of the 5 attacking returns have come in his last 4 appearances.
Four of Nottingham Forest’s next six games have an FDR rating of 2. More importantly, 4 of their next 6 games are at home. Forest, as we know, are much better at home than on the road. Steve Cooper’s men are unbeaten at home.
Whilst they have won 2 and drawn 3 of their 5 home games, they have lost 5 of the 7 matches on the road. Quite a stark contrast indeed!
| Name | £M | App | Mins | S | OT | In | BC | xG | G | xGI | GI | KP | BCC | xA | A | xPts | Pts |
| Awoniyi | £6.4 | 10(2) | 672 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 8 | 3.72 | 4 | 4.1 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 0.4 | 2 | 38.05 | 42 |
| Elanga | £5 | 12(6) | 652 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 2 | 1.09 | 2 | 2.5 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 1.4 | 3 | 32.55 | 39 |
| Boly | £4.5 | 10(1) | 770 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 1.11 | 1 | 1.5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 32.83 | 35 |
| Gibbs-White | £5.7 | 12(1) | 1012 | 18 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 1.36 | 0 | 3.1 | 3 | 22 | 3 | 1.76 | 3 | 38.22 | 33 |
| Wood | £4.9 | 10(8) | 247 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 2.1 | 3 | 2.2 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 23.83 | 29 |
| Toffolo | £4.4 | 6(2) | 392 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 0.7 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0.3 | 3 | 18.03 | 28 |
| Aina | £4.5 | 9(1) | 633 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.11 | 1 | 0.3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0.19 | 1 | 20.14 | 28 |
Elanga has registered more points than any other Forest player barring Awoniyi, in FPL. He is also joint top for shots in the box, and top for big chances created. He has achieved all this in nearly half the minutes as that of someone like a Gibbs-White.
It is, therefore, safe to suggest that Elanga is the best asset from Forest, in the potential absence of Awoniyi, who anyways is far more expensive.
Forest’s FPL GW13 opponent Brighton have conceded 20 goals so far this season- the 6th worst tally in the league. They are also yet to keep a clean sheet!
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW13
Top FPL GW13 Differential Picks To Consider Ahead Of Deadline
Top FPL Gameweek 13 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL Gameweek 13 Scout Selection- Based on Stats and Matchups
FPL GW13 Injury News & Press Conference Updates of All Teams
FPL Gameweek 13 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW13 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based On Eye Test & Stats
FPL GW13-18 Fixture Swing Analysis | Teams & Players to Target
Premier League Players who will miss PL due to AFCON
FPL GW13 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 23/24 Season
Link to all our FPL GW13 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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K K Anirudh
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