Welcome to the last captaincy metrics blog of the season let’s take a look at the Top FPL Gameweek 38 Captain Picks and see who finishes top on our successful metrics.
The metrics had a 30/38 “returns record” last season and so far has a 31/37 “returns record” this season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week. Metrics total points so far: 694 pts(24+10+12+34+34+18+12+46+12+4+6+26+14+10+2+26+12+10+16+34+40+20+4+4+8+22+14+24+24+14+28+32+4+48+12+10)
Link to all our FPL GW38 blogs including Fixtures to target, Captaincy metrics, Differentials, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW38 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW38 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Salah has the most votes this week in the captaincy poll with 37% of voters choosing him as their ideal captaincy choice this week. Salah is followed by Kane who has a strong record in GW38 and is playing Leeds away from home. Haaland who generally tops the votes in most weeks is only third amidst concerns over his xMins. Man United duo Rashford and Bruno are 4th and 5th respectively in this week’s captaincy poll.
Further Read: Top FPL GW38 Differential Picks and Punts(<10% TSB) with Stats and Analysis
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 38 Captain picks
Haaland finishing on top of the individual numbers isn’t something new but this time around he had competition from Salah and Rashford. Salah’s xG of 4.19 in the last six games was only 0.21 less than Haaland’s xG of 4.39. Meanwhile, Rashford and Haaland had the same number of big chances(9) with Haaland having just one more shot inside the box(19) than Rashford(18).
Kane and Bruno are 4th and 5th but have also posted great numbers, Bruno in fact has created a whopping 22 chances in the last six games which shows his assist potential.
Further Read: FPL GW38 Scout Selection- Top Picks and Players to Target
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Three different teams top the different metrics in this table with Liverpool having the most shots in the box(57), Man City having the most big chances(19) and Man United having the highest xG(13.68) in the last six games.
Only rarely do we get to see Man City actually not top this table!
Further Read: FPL GW38 Free Hit Guide- Players to Target and Best Drafts
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW38
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use Drafthound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Liverpool have the best odds with a whopping 90% chance of scoring at least one goal and a 48% chance of scoring 2+ goals vs Southampton.
Man United are close behind in second place with a 87% chance of scoring at least one goal and a 42% chance of scoring 2+ goals vs Fulham.
Man City are behind Man United with a 83% chance of scoring at least one goal and a 33% chance of scoring 2+ goals vs Brentford.
Spurs are last with a 77% chance of scoring at least one goal and a 29% chance of scoring 2+ goals vs Leeds.
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 38 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 38 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week. I have then averaged the Two Ranks to churn out the Average Rank Factor, which I have used to determine the Safest yet Explosive option.
Kane has the highest Anytime Returns Projections at 75%, while his Projected Points stand at 8.3 for the week.
Salah has the second highest Anytime Returns Projections at 68%, while his Projected Points stand at 7.6 for the week, giving him the second spot.
Bruno has an Anytime Returns Projections at 66%, while his Projected Points stand at 6.7 for the week, giving him the third spot ahead of Rashford and Haaland.
Rashford has an Anytime Returns Projections at 61% and Projected Points at 7.0, which puts him in fourth place.
Haaland has an Anytime Returns Projection at 58%, and the Projected Points at 5.4 this week, giving him the last spot.
Further Read: Top FPL GW38 Differential Picks and Punts(<10% TSB) with Stats and Analysis
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 38 Captaincy metric analysis
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
Salah tops the captaincy metrics with a CRF of 8, and Rasford is close behind in second with a CRF of 9.
Bruno finishes third this week ahead of Haaland with a CRF of 12, while Haaland is in fourth place with a CRF of 14.
Kane comes last with a cumulative rank factor(CRF) of only 15!
That’s the end of the last captaincy metrics blog of the season, thanks for all the love and support. Good luck for the final gameweek of the season!
Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW38
Top FPL GW38 Differential Picks and Punts(<10% TSB) with Stats and Analysis
Top FPL Gameweek 38 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW38 Scout Selection- Top Picks and Players to Target
FPL GW38 Free Hit Guide- Players to Target and Best Drafts
FPL Gameweek 38 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW38 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
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