Gameweek 30 was a good GW in terms of all the usual suspects delivering for managers. Most of the popular captains returned too. However, if you owned Mo Salah, all we can say is hard luck mate. Nonetheless, we are in the final stages of the season. Big teams have three games in a week. FPL managers have got their work cut out in spotting that one ‘X factor’ who will be a significant difference to the ranks. In this blog, let’s look at the top six differential picks for FPL GW31 including one ultra differential pick(<=1% ownership)
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Top FPL GW31 Differential Picks (<10% ownership)
Ruben Dias vs Leicester(H), £6.0m, TSB: 6.8%
If you had watched the Champions League game between Bayern Munich and Manchester City you would have seen Ruben Dias putting in a masterclass. There were signs that the Portuguese is back to his very best, after a slump earlier in the season.
Meanwhile, if you watched Leicester play against Bournemouth last time out, you would have seen an attack that is completely toothless. In fact, since GW24, no team has scored fewer goals than Leicester City. The Foxes have scored only 4 goals in 8 matches.
Looking at Man City’s fixtures, there could be a lot of clean sheets on the horizon. In fact, they could keep 5 clean sheets easily in the next 6 matches.
City themselves have been very unlucky not to keep clean sheets in recent weeks. Since GW24, the champions have conceded only 4 big chances. They have an xGC of a mere 2.8. The team in second place has an xGC of 6.1. Therefore, clean sheets are likely to come eventually.
Since Ruben Dias returned to the lineup against Arsenal, Manchester City have won every game barring one ( Forest away,1-1). Dias has started each and every one of those matches. He also started in each of the Champions League games. Therefore, he is likely to start almost all the games.
Further Read: FPL GW31 Odds Preview: Goals, Clean Sheets & Predicted Points
Michael Olise vs Southampton(A), £5.4m, TSB: 1.2%
Olise was the star player of GW30. The young Frenchman registered 3 assists, along with bagging all 3 bonus points. The 14-point haul he got against Leeds was his highest ever in FPL. That tally of 3 assists to his overall tally of 2 goals and 8 assists this season. This meant that Olise has surpassed last season’s tally of 2 goals and 6 assists.
If we look at the numbers for Crystal Palace players, Olise clearly comes out on top for creativity. He has created far more big chances than any of his compatriots. He has made far more key passes than anyone else. As a result, unlike a certain Wilfred Zaha, Olise will get bonus points even if he gets one assist.
Roy Hodgson’s men have the best run of fixtures possible from now up and till the end of the season. It is imperative to pick players from teams that have something to play for in the latter parts of the season. The Eagles are still not safe from relegation and have plenty to play for. As a result, it is safe to assume that Palace players won’t be in the beaches any time soon.
Further Read: Best FPL GW31 Midfielders | Rashford & Maddison Replacements
Jack Harrison vs Liverpool(H), £5.7m, TSB: 2.9%
This pick might surprise a lot of you managers. But just give it a food for thought. Liverpool were fantastic at home last week against Arsenal. But Liverpool were fantastic at home against the Manchester clubs too, prior to last week. We have got to judge Liverpool as two different teams, home and away. Let’s look at the numbers:
| Liverpool at Home | Liverpool away | |
| Points | 31 (5th best in the league) | 13 (7th worst) |
| Goals conceded | 11 (3rd best) | 24 (8th worst) |
| Big Chances conceded | 36 (3rd worst) | 51 (worst) |
| SIB Conceded | 85 (5th best) | 135 (10th worst) |
| NPxGA | 18.8 (11th best) | 27.8 (3rd worst) |
So if we look at the table, two things are blatantly obvious. One, Liverpool are vulnerable on the road. Two, Liverpool’s defence is weak, regardless of whether the match is at Anfield or away from home. That is justified by the fact that the 87 big chances conceded by Klopp’s men is the second worst in the league, behind only Fulham(88).
Now let’s come to Jack Harrison. Harrison has 4 goals and 7 assists this season. 4 of the 11 attacking returns (2 G 2 A) have come in the last 4 GWs. In other words, since Javi Gracia took over as manager. In fact, only Isak(33) has more FPL points in this period than Harrison(32).
It goes without saying that Liverpool’s weakness is down their right flank. To put it in numbers, the Reds have conceded 26% of chances down that flank, the joint fourth worst in the league. As we saw last week, Martinelli had a field day down that flank. Who is to say that Harrison won’t?
Further Read: FPL GW31 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Alexander Isak vs Aston Villa(A), £6.7m, TSB: 6.2%
Newcastle United were struggling for form, goals and points. That is when Alexander Isak decided to intervene. The Swedish international has started 4 of the last five games and he has scored 5 goals in that period. The Magpies have won each and every game.
As stated earlier, we got to pick players from teams that have something to play for. Newcastle are among the top of that list. As we look at the fixtures, 4 of their 6 games have an FDR rating of 2. Now is the best time to bring in their assets into your teams.
If we look at the per-90 stats of the top strikers in the league, Isak is right up there. He is almost on par with Harland in terms of impact. In fact, he has got more bonus points per 90 than the mighty Erling Haaland.
Meanwhile, Aston Villa have registered few clean sheets of late. However, numbers suggest that their defence is not that great. Since GW17, Aston Villa have the fourth-worst tally in the league for NPxGA. They have also conceded 55% of the chances down the center, the joint fifth worst in the league. As we know, that is exactly where Isak operates.
Further Read: FPL GW31 Odds Preview: Goals, Clean Sheets & Predicted Points
Alexis Mac Allister vs Chelsea(A), £5.5m, TSB: 8.2%
If you were an owner of Mac Allister last week, we feel really sorry for you. He could have gotten a much much bigger haul. That haul could come this week at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea are one of the most out-of-form teams in the league right now. The Blues have failed to any of their last 4 games in the league.
Chelsea could be without the services of Kalidou Koulibaly, who injured himself during the Champions League tie at Real Madrid. Reece James, Thiago Silva, and N’golo Kante are likely to be rested. As a result of which Frank Lampard’s men could go in with a much-changed line up this week against Brighton.
The Seagulls have the form and stats to take full advantage of Chelsea’s potential lack of priority. The Seagulls have the second-best xG in the league since GW17. Mac Allister has the 4 best xG for all players in FPL since GW23. Essentially, since he moved to the number 10 position.
Meanwhile, Chelsea concede 54% of their chances through the centre. That is the joint sixth-worst tally in the league. As we can see from the above graphic, that is where Mac Allister operates from. FPL managers might get their big haul after all. Make sure you don’t bench him though!
Further Read: Best FPL GW31 Midfielders | Rashford & Maddison Replacements
James Tarkowski vs Fulham(H), £4.2m, TSB: 4.5%
Here’s another left-field option for FPL managers who are looking to climb up the ladder. This is a potentially high-risk high-reward option. No defender has had more shots in the box than James Tarkowski since Sean Dacha took charge. Everton’s only source of goal threat seems to be set plays targeting the head of Tarkowski.
Meanwhile, Fulham have already conceded 9 goals from set pieces this season, the joint eighth-worst tally in the league. Besides, the Cottagers have scored only 7 goals since GW22, the fewest in the league. Everton, meanwhile, have lost only once at home under Sean Dyche and have kept clean sheets in three of the five matches.
The Toffees have conceded only 3 goals in the five home games under Dyche. That is the joint fourth-best tally in that period. Marco Silva’s men seem to have hit the beaches already. As a result, this might well turn out to be a gamble worth taking for FPL managers.
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW31
Confirmed & Likely FPL Double Gameweeks From FPL GW31
FPL GW31 Latest Injury News, Press Conference Updates and Predicted Lineups
Top FPL Gameweek 31 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL Gameweek 31 Transfer Tips- Players to Buy, Hold, Sell
FPL GW31 Odds Preview: Goals, Clean Sheets & Predicted Points
FPL GW31 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down The Key Dilemmas
FPL GW31 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Heatmaps
Top FPL GW31 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Best FPL GW31 Midfielders | Rashford & Maddison Replacements
FPL GW31 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide
FPL Chip Strategy Guide with Key Notes for All The Chips
FPL GW31 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
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K K Anirudh
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