GW32 just got over but here we are closing towards another deadline with GW33 happening midweek. Man City who blanked in GW32 secured a comfortable win over Sheffield United in the FA Cup and now return to the fold which means Haaland is back as a captaincy option this week. In this blog, let’s look at the top five FPL Gameweek 33 Captain Picks and see who tops the captaincy metrics becoming the best captain choice according to our metrics.
The metrics had a 30/38 “returns record” last season and so far has a 26/31 “returns record” this season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week. Metrics total points so far: 560 pts(24+10+12+34+34+18+12+46+12+4+6+26+14+10+2+26+12+10+16+34+40+20+4+4+8+22+14+24+24+14)
Link to all our FPL GW33 blogs including GW33 Wildcard Drafts, Fixtures to target, Double and Blank game-week news, Captaincy metrics, Differentials, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW33 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW33 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Without any surprise, Haaland gets 60% of the votes and is the candidate with the most votes in our captaincy poll this week. Salah is second with 14% votes. Watkins who has been consistently returning in the last few games is third with 8% votes. Mitoma and Isak are 4th and 5th in the captaincy poll this week. The five players going into the metrics this week are: Haaland, Salah, Watkins, Mitoma, and Isak.
Further Read: How to Approach Man City FPL Assets for FPL GW33-38 by our Man City correspondent @4lex_mcfc
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 33 Captain picks
Haaland is in a league of his own with an xG of 5.31 and a total of 10 big chances in the last six games. Mo Salah is 2nd and has an healthy xG of 4.31 in the last six games. Watkins has the most shots inside the box(20) amongst all five options and is 3rd with an xG of 3.84. Isak is fourth with an xG of 3.10 and Mitoma tops the chances created metric amongst the five players(12) but is last with an xG of only 1.36.
Further Read: Top FPL GW33 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Newcastle are top for xG with a whopping 15.13 xG in the last six games with 21 big chances and 71 shots inside the box. Brighton are 2nd with an xG of 14.01 from 75 shots inside the box and 19 big chances.
Man City who mostly top this table are only 3rd with an xG of 13.88 this time. Liverpool are 4th with an xG of 11.96 and Aston Villa are 5th with an xG of 10.55.
Further Read: FPL GW33 Scout Picks with Matchups and Key Stats for All Picks
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW33
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use Drafthound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Haaland and Man City have the best odds(86% chance of at least one goal and 38% chance of more than 2 goals) even though they play league leaders Arsenal this week.
Brighton and Mitoma have the second-best odds(83% chance of at least one goal and 36% chance of more than 2 goals) and will face Forest away from home this week.
Salah and Liverpool who’ll be facing West Ham are 3rd with an 82% chance of at least one goal and a 29% chance of more than 2 goals)
Watkins and Aston Villa who’ll be playing Fulham at home are 4th with an 80% chance of at least one goal and a 29% chance of more than 2 goals)
Isak and Newcastle who’ll be facing Everton are last surprisingly with a 77% chance of at least one goal and a 25% chance of more than 2 goals)
Further Read: FPL GW33 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 33 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week. I have then averaged the Two Ranks to churn out the Average Rank Factor, which I have used to determine the Safest yet Explosive option.
Further Read: FPL GW33 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down The Key Dilemmas
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 33 Captaincy metric analysis
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
Haaland tops the captaincy metrics this week with a CRF of only 6. The lowest possible CRF score is 4!
Salah is a distant second with a CRF of 12, Mitoma is 3rd with a CRF of 13, Watkins is 4th with a CRF of 14 and Isak is 5th with a CRF of 15. Only a CRF of 3 separates 2nd-placed Salah and 5th-placed Isak!
Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW33
Confirmed FPL Double Gameweeks From FPL GW33
Top FPL GW33 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Top FPL Gameweek 33 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
How to Approach Man City FPL Assets for FPL GW33-38 by our Man City correspondent @4lex_mcfc
FPL GW33 Scout Picks with Matchups and Key Stats for All Picks
FPL GW33 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down The Key Dilemmas
FPL GW33 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide
FPL Chip Strategy Guide with Key Notes for All The Chips
FPL GW33 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Link to all our FPL Gameweek 33 blogs. Our blogs cover a wide range of topics including the best wildcard team, chip strategy, differentials, and more.
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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