How to Approach Man City FPL Assets for FPL GW33-38

In this article, our Man City correspondent Alex (@4lex_mcfc) covers all things Man City for the FPL run-in – for lineup predictions and starting odds, follow him on Twitter

We have once again reached the point in the season when everyone is ready to get hurt by Pep Roulette. With Man City having a Double Gameweek in GW34 (Fulham (A) + West Ham (H)) and another in GW37 (Chelsea (H) + Brighton (A)), along with a rather comfortable run-in schedule, many are looking to double or triple-up on City assets. The opportunity is clearly there, given the upside that City assets present – who should we go for to make the most of it?

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Man City’s Schedule

For reference, this is what City’s schedule looks like for the remainder of the season:

There’s no way to sugarcoat it, this run is congested. Between now and the end of the FPL season – starting with the all-important game against Arsenal – City will play 10 games in 33 days. Rotation will be very difficult to judge because on one hand, City need to win every single game, and on the other hand, load management will be key to keeping the squad fit and firing. On a game-by-game basis, we should be able to call out and predict some patterns, but judging rotation and specific minutes distribution in advance is a different story.

With that in mind, looking at this fixture run, I am more inclined to target City’s attacking assets than their defensive assets. I don’t see many (if any) teams limiting City to less than two goals, but I could see City conceding chances here and there. Couple that with the expected rotation across the board and I think it generally makes sense to prioritize City’s attack. I’ll touch more on this idea throughout the article.

Squad Analysis and Position-by-Position Breakdown

Since the World Cup, we have seen Pep deploy a system that operates in a 3241 (325/3223, however you want to refer to it) in possession and a 442/424/433 out of possession. In possession, one of the fullbacks tucks inside (parallel to Rodri) and the opposite fullback becomes part of a wide back-three. Of late, John Stones has most often been the fullback to tuck inside, with a back-three of Ake-Dias-Akanji. Up front, Haaland is central, with two wingers (two of Foden, Grealish, and Mahrez) most often pulled very wide outside of him. The two remaining midfielders (Bernardo/Gundo and Alvarez/KDB) occupy the half spaces, with the right midfielder (Alvarez/KDB) often pushing forward out of possession (parallel to Haaland).

At the back, the injury to Nathan Ake (to which we have no proper timetable for, at the moment) makes the backline slightly more difficult to predict. Aymeric Laporte is the like-for-like replacement, with the potential for Bernardo Silva, Rico Lewis, or Sergio Gomez to also fill that “fourth defender” role from the left side.

In midfield, the dynamic is relatively stable, with a favored pairing of Gundogan-KDB and Bernardo deployed as a tactical weapon, wherever Pep needs him on a game-by-game basis.

Up front, Phil Foden has just recently returned from an appendectomy and should be in contention to start from DGW34 onwards. I expect Foden to pose more of a rotation threat to Mahrez than Grealish – down to Grealish’s form and his importance to the functioning of the squad, with Mahrez more of a sporadic tactical option. Lastly, there’s not much to note about the robot. Haaland is fit and coming for every record out there.

At the moment, here is how I would judge the starting odds or “favorability” for the run-in (judged out of 100%, with # of predicted starts out of eight games in parentheses), position-by-position:

• Left Winger: Grealish 85%/Foden 15% (7/1)
• Striker: Haaland 90%/Alvarez 10% (7/1)
• Right Winger: Mahrez 50%/Foden 40%/Bernardo 10% (4/3/1)
• Left Center Mid: Gundogan 75%/Bernardo 25% (6/2)
• Right Center Mid: KDB 80%/Alvarez 20% (7/1)
• Defensive Mid: Rodri 95%/Gundogan 5% (8/0)
• Right Back/Inverted Defensive Mid: Stones 80%/Lewis 10%/Walker 10% (7/0/1)
• Left Back/Inverted Defensive Mid: Laporte 50%/Ake 30%/Lewis 10%/Bernardo 5%/Gomez 5% (4/3/1/0/0) (Assuming Ake returns from injury around early May)
• Central Center Back: Dias 90%/Akanji 10% (8/0)
• Right Center Back: Akanji 90%/Stones 10% (7/1)
• Goalkeeper: Ederson 99%/Ortega 1% (8/0)

Erling Haaland Q & A

Before we get into the trickier Man City FPL decisions, let’s touch on Erling Haaland. Of course, there should be no questions about whether to own him at this point, but there are a few points of inquiry…

Q: Can we expect Haaland on penalties moving forward?

In City’s FA Cup semifinal, Riyad Mahrez took the penalty when both players were on the pitch. This comes after Haaland missed a penalty against Bayern Munich a few days earlier. After the semifinal, Mahrez revealed that the penalty situation is fluid – sometimes he will take them and sometimes Haaland will take them. In my opinion, Haaland will take the majority of penalties from here on out for City, but we shouldn’t be surprised if Mahrez takes another at some point.

Q: Should we captain Haaland in FPL GW33?

Yes, I think so. For one, as important of a match as this is for both teams, Arsenal’s defense has simply not been great since Saliba got injured (they have conceded an average of 1.72 xG/game across their last 5 PL games). Couple this with City’s attacking power at home, along with a near-guaranteed 90-minute feature for Haaland, and there isn’t much of a question about it for me. It also helps Haaland’s case that there isn’t a standout alternative – maybe Ollie Watkins home to Fulham, maybe Mo Salah away to West Ham, but neither of those shouts fill me with as much confidence as Haaland does.

Q: Should we captain Haaland in FPL DGW34?

Now this is a slightly trickier question than the GW33 captaincy conversation, though my answer is still yes. The main worry most people will have is minutes – will Haaland get rested in either fixture considering the upcoming semifinal against Madrid? For me, I don’t think we’ll see anything out of the usual in DGW34. I would back Haaland to start both and if City lead, potentially get subbed off sometime between 60 and 75 minutes. Haaland could bag a brace or more in both games and I don’t think anyone would be surprised.

The caveat to this argument is that there are viable alternatives (whereas that is not so much the case for GW33). Brighton attackers, United attackers, or even someone else from City will all be thrown around in the community as potential captaincy alternatives. Look, they are all great options (and if you feel strongly about one of them and/or you need to take a risk to chase some upside, then go for it), but Haaland is simply on a different level. Yes, there will likely be assets that outscore him in DGW34, but do you back yourself to get that call right? For me, captaining Haaland is the logical option.

Q: For those with Triple Captain remaining, should we use it on Haaland, and if so, when?

Similar to my response to the last question, if you feel strongly about an alternative or need to make a risky play to try to make monumental gains for one reason or another, then you can look elsewhere. However, if we are talking about what is most logical, then I would say to Triple Captain Haaland in DGW34. As I said, I don’t think his minutes will be an issue, and both fixtures have haul potential. Fulham are very weak in defense and have nothing to play for, and West Ham are solid in defense, but that’s offset for me by how good City and Haaland are at home. Unless something changes between now and the DGW34 deadline, I would be Triple Captaining Haaland if I had the option to do so.

Man City Attacker Analysis

Now, onto the picks where we get to have some real fun. After Haaland, City have five attackers worthy of FPL consideration, in one way or another. It’s safe to say that several of those picks will have a massive FPL performance between now and GW38, but nailing down who and when is an extremely difficult task. Here are my thoughts on the matter…

If you want a City attacker who should tick along with consistent attacking returns, the ever-so-popular Jack Grealish (7.2 m MID) is your pick. He is incredibly fundamental to City’s attack and his role rarely changes. In the nine matches since GW22, Grealish has played >60 minutes in every single game (with an average of 81.8 Mins/game and four 90-minute appearances). In that same period, he has returned in six of the nine games, with two double-digit returns.

Grealish’s biggest critique, both as a player and an FPL asset, has been his lack of quality in the final action. Yet this has recently improved, both from the eye test and in terms of returns. I wouldn’t expect him to return every game now, but to me his recent performances give me enough confidence to back him as a good FPL asset. In the final eight games of the season, I’d expect Grealish to start seven (even with Foden back). He may not have the ceiling of some of his teammates, but he should remain a stellar, reliable selection throughout the run-in.

If you want a City attacker who has the potential to explode in a short period of time (DGW34 or DGW37, for example), there are three options to choose between: Kevin De Bruyne (12.1 m MID), Phil Foden (8.0 m MID), and Riyad Mahrez (7.3 m MID). Each of them offers something slightly different, but I wouldn’t view any of them as an FPL asset to start and expect to return every GW between now and GW38 – let me explain.

The main thing we have seen all season is with Haaland in the squad, the other City attackers receive far fewer chances. For instance, many will have fond memories of KDB’s four-goal performance against Wolves late last season, but we have to remember he was the focal point of the attack in that game. Simply put, that will not happen again as long as Haaland (and Alvarez, to a lesser degree) is in the squad.

With the system City have deployed this season, the bulk of attacking chances that don’t fall to Haaland fall to the wingers. This is because Haaland’s presence often sucks defenders towards him (centrally, in most cases), vacating space around him for the wingers (and sometimes the attacking midfielders) to produce in. When this happens, most often exploited with quick switches of play, the ball often ends up at the feet of Foden, Grealish, or Mahrez in the wide areas of the box – offering prime opportunities for goals and assists. In all competitions this season, only Haaland (48), Mahrez (15), Alvarez (14), and Foden (13) have double-digit goals.

With this in mind, if you are going to pick another City attacker for DGW34 or DGW37 alone, looking for goal threat, Foden and Mahrez are the main options. Minutes are the issue, of course, and I can’t speak to that with any confidence this far in advance, but keep a keen eye on Twitter predictions from myself (@4lex_mcfc), @ffscout_luke, and the hivemind predictions from @Jumpthewave, once we get closer to those deadlines.

If both Foden and Mahrez had the exact same minutes, and had to pick one of the two, then I would go for Foden. Given minutes, his goal threat is incredible – he sits at 0.90 G + A/90 in the PL this season.

So, what about KDB? Well, he is still a great pick. As I said, he doesn’t really have the potential for a quadruple return anymore (there aren’t many assets who can, to be fair), but his ceiling is still very high. After a rough patch post-World Cup, KDB has seemingly rediscovered his true form (with returns of 13, 9, and 8 points in the last three PL matches). He is absolutely incredible on bonus, so even though his assist potential is much higher than his goal threat, he can still return at a superb FPL rate.

The difficult aspect of owning KDB in FPL is his price. At 12.1 million, you have to make sacrifices to get him – sacrifices that I’m not quite sure are worth it for most managers. For me, he’s more of a circumstantial pick: if you can get to him fairly easily then go for it, but he’s likely not worth altering your entire team structure for. Plus, even if he is first-choice by a distance, we know he is someone who can and will be rested at times, given City’s grueling fixture run and his aging body.

So, I said that Foden and Mahrez are “the main options” when it comes to DGW34 and DGW37, but that is factoring in the issue of accessibility. If you can easily get to KDB (alongside Salah in a five-man midfield, ideally) or are on Free Hit in either of these weeks, then I would certainly be going for him. In most cases, I believe “settling” for Foden or Mahrez instead (as a short-term punt) is the more pragmatic option.

Lastly, let me touch on why Alvarez and Gundogan should not be considered as strongly as the others.

With Alvarez, minutes are the issue. Unless Haaland gets injured, he’s likely not worth a City spot (nor the headache of deciding to start or bench him). If you are working with a 352 formation for the run-in, and have enough funds to get Alvarez as your third FWD, I like the selection then. Otherwise, I’d stay away unless an opportunity presents itself.

With Gundogan, he simply isn’t at the level of the other options when it comes to ticking FPL boxes. Grealish is a better long-term pick, as their minutes are similar but Grealish’s goal threat is higher. KDB, Foden, and Mahrez are all better short-term picks, as they all have a bigger potential to haul). Therefore, Gundogan isn’t close to consideration for me.

Man City Midfielder Rankings

Man City Midfielders for GW33-38 (price considered)

1. Grealish (7.2 m) – Highest xMins, consistent role within the team, and consistent attacking returns, though he does have a relatively low explosive factor
2. KDB (12.1 m) – High xMins (though he will be rested at times), elite producer, decent goal threat, and amazing on bonus points, though he is too expensive for consideration in many teams
3. Foden (8.0 m)/Mahrez (7.3 m) – Very little to split these two, as both have uncertain xMins, but incredible goal threat and a high explosive factor when playing

Man City Midfielders for DGW34 (price not considered)

1. KDB (12.1 m) – I would expect him to start both, though keep a keen eye on predictions closer to the end of the week, and if he does, I would expect him to return in both fixtures… great floor and ceiling
2. Foden (8.0 m)/Mahrez (7.3 m) – Again, very little to split these two and play close attention to predictions, but I would confidently bet that at least one of them comes away with a double-digit return
3. Grealish (7.2 m) – A good pick by all means, but you really need him to start both games in order for him to be a great pick (and who knows when his rest comes)

Man City Defender Analysis

The Man City defense has been in fine form recently, stifling four of their last five PL opponents to less than 0.45 xG. With the upcoming fixture run (specifically DGW34-GW36) looking great for clean sheets and alternative defensive options dwindling, many will be looking to bring in a City defender.

Two things worth noting before assessing City’s assets, both having to do with the recent Leicester game:

For one, given the congested schedule, we could see early subs across the City backline. Against Leicester, Pep made three subs before the 60-minute mark, including subbing on Akanji for Stones. If you are going with a defender in FPL, you don’t want to worry about whether or not they can reach 60 minutes.

Second, though City’s recent defensive record has been great, after substituting key players against Leicester, they gave up 8 shots and 2.13 xG in the second half. Pep more or less said he learnt his lesson, but I would be wary of City conceding late goals if the lead is comfortable.

Moving onto the specifics of the City defense, a big question is the availability of Nathan Ake. The Dutch defender appeared to pick up a hamstring injury in the second half against Bayern Munich and days later, we are still without a clarifying update. Whether Ake is fit or not is not of great concern to City’s upcoming clean sheet potential, but it does quite drastically change the dynamic of the backline.

Given this uncertainty, if you are to go for a City defender, you have to go for the known quantities – players whose role won’t change much, regardless of Ake’s fitness. To me, there is quite clearly a hierarchy when it comes to City’s FPL defenders.

At the top of the list is Ruben Dias (6.0 m). He is City’s rock at the back, so I would expect him to start all eight remaining games (seven, at worst). His combination of defensive ability and leadership makes him an easy choice for Pep every single game. When we consider early subs, Dias is not one I would be worried about. He could be subbed for Akanji sometime or another, but I wouldn’t expect it – he has played 90 minutes in each of City’s last eight PL games.

My worry with Dias is that 6.0 million is too much for a defender with a relatively low ceiling. Over time, his consistency could pay off, but I’m sure there will be better options out there for cheaper (while also freeing up an extra City spot). Whether it’s Trent, Trippier, Shaw, or a Brighton defender, I would likely be setting my sights elsewhere.

After Dias, Stones and Akanji are the only other defenders I would consider.

Stones edges it over Akanji, due to slightly higher expected minutes and a more advanced role that could see him nick an attacking return here and there (as he did against Leicester). At 5.5 million, the price is slightly more reasonable than Dias, but once again, there are likely better picks out there. Similar to Dias, I think he’s a good pick, but I would strongly consider looking elsewhere.

Akanji is very similar and at 5.0 million he’s also attractive. I would guess that he starts seven of the remaining eight PL games, but he could very well play six, too – that slight uncertainty would put me off him. Like Stones, he should be a good pick, but not one worth going out of your way to get.

All-in-all, I don’t love any of City’s defenders for the run-in. Despite the good fixture run on paper, Pep’s management of games (regarding subs and late goals) makes me think that no City defender is worth the stress. They all have relatively low ceilings and block you off from tripling-up elsewhere (with Ederson or triple attack). Dias would be my pick of the bunch (and I would definitely go for him as the City defender on a Free Hit), but I don’t think he’ll surpass our expectations, especially given his price.

Is Ederson the Best GK for the Run-in?

All season long, I have been an Ederson FPL non-believer. Generally, he’s too expensive without a high ceiling to merit being the GK of choice. However, with just six FPL Gameweeks remaining, and two of those being Double Gameweeks for City, I think Ederson is a stellar pick for the run-in.

I’ll put it this way, for GW33-38, I don’t think Ederson will be the highest scoring GK, but I would be pretty shocked if he wasn’t in the top five – simply down to volume of fixtures. When we look at the alternatives, flaws arise with many of the other picks. At Brighton, the only team with more games remaining than City, no one is quite sure who the keeper of choice is at the moment. At Man U, who have the same amount of games as City, the defense is in a questionable place (with injuries and De Gea’s general performance). At Liverpool, Alisson is a great pick, but he blocks you off from a Liverpool triple-up elsewhere.

Outside of those options, it almost becomes a lottery, in my opinion. Unless some clarification arises surrounding the Brighton keepers, I would be happy to stick Ederson in my FPL team for the run-in.

If you have no chips remaining and wonder whether Ederson is worth a transfer in, it’s a tricky decision. If you were to do it, it has to be prior to DGW34 (if you wait longer than that, the margins become too small to make the move worth it). For most GKs, I think the move is quite marginally worth a hit, but it’s a close call that could go either way.

Man City Assets for Wildcard 33

For those on Wildcard ahead of GW33 (or DGW34), you have a prime opportunity in front of you. If you are to nail the correct City triple-up, you should fly up the ranks in the coming GWs. So, who do you go for?

Alongside Haaland, I would go for one or two Man City midfielders. You can go for one midfielder plus Ederson, and that is a more risk-averse path (a great option if you’re in a place to “shield” your rank), but I think it’s smart to leave the option for an attacking triple-up open. Plus, I already expressed my disdain for City’s other defensive options.

To me, the opportunity lies in going for double or triple attack and hoping you strike gold in DGW34, before reassessing for GW35-38 – the upside is there for the taking.

When deciding between the midfielders, a big part of my decision would be transfers. Are you looking to hold these assets through the end of the season or are you looking to rotate through various midfielders? Understanding whether these picks are for the entire run-in or just for DGW34 before shipping them out is a key factor.

As I said before, Grealish is my favorite pick for the run-in. If you want to lock a City attacker into your squad that you can start every Gameweek through GW38 alongside Haaland, he is probably your guy. You can expect him to start almost every game and tick along with returns.

If you want to do some “hokey cokey” midfielder rotation, then KDB would be my primary target. When you’re on Wildcard, many of the issues surrounding KDB as an FPL pick dissipate. Given sufficient Team Value, you could build that Haaland-KDB-Salah 352 I hinted at earlier (that’s where I would go on Wildcard). In this case, you could get KDB for GW33 and DGW34, then assess what to do with him beyond that. Maybe you downgrade him to a different City MID, maybe you make a double move to bring Kane in, maybe you hold him – your options are plentiful.

I would personally go for both, so Haaland + KDB + Grealish would be my City triple-up on Wildcard.

If either KDB or Grealish don’t appeal to you for whatever reason, you have alternatives. As I noted before, forgoing one of them for Ederson is a perfectly sound decision. There are plenty of other midfielders to pick from and Ederson is potentially the stand-out GK.

If you, like myself, want to leave the option for triple attack open, but don’t want one of KDB or Grealish, then you have to make the decision between Foden or Mahrez. Whoever you go with, what I would do is Wildcard with Haaland and Grealish, but leave the opportunity to bring in Foden or Mahrez just before DGW34. Not that we’ll get that much insight from the Arsenal game, but you never know what could happen. If us predictors back one of these two to start both in the double, then you want to get your hands on them.

If you really want to go for the upside, Haaland + KDB + Foden/Mahrez (buy in DGW34) would be my choice.

Further Read: FPL GW33 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide

Conclusion

Man City’s FPL assets are going to become a hot commodity once again, as they should be. With an incredible fixture run, including a sublime DGW34 and a nice DGW37, going without City assets is a prime opportunity passed up. Given the time of the season, it’s time to face Pep Roulette straight in the face, in my opinion.

Alongside Erling Haaland, City have plenty of options. In midfield, there are four standout picks, in defense, two more, and in net, we have Ederson. That’s a pool of seven assets to pick between, so selecting the right ones will be crucial.

For me, a City attacking double-up is necessary. Whether you go for the slow-and-steady Grealish, the explosive but pricey KDB, or the explosive but unpredictable Foden or Mahrez, going for one of them is key given their potential.

I would go for Grealish is you want to hold a City midfielder for the entire run-in, KDB if you can get to him and want a pick you could potentially move on after DGW34, and Foden or Mahrez if you want to chase the upside but don’t have the funds for KDB. In most cases, I think an attacking triple-up is also on the cards.

If you want to limit your City attackers to two, then I would go for Ederson before I go for Dias or Stones. While both defenders are good picks, neither offer the upside necessary to make them standout picks (and especially not priority transfers) over their alternatives.

Thanks for reading! If you have any further questions, please reach out to Alex on Twitter (@4lex_mcfc) – you can also find Man City lineup predictions and starting odds on his Twitter (GW33 prediction out Tuesday around 2 pm BST/9 am EST and DGW34 prediction(s) out Friday around 3 pm BST/10 am EST)

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW33

Confirmed FPL Double Gameweeks From FPL GW33
Top FPL GW33 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Top FPL Gameweek 33 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics 
How to Approach Man City FPL Assets for FPL GW33-38 by our Man City correspondent @4lex_mcfc
FPL GW33 Scout Picks with Matchups and Key Stats for All Picks
FPL GW33 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down The Key Dilemmas 
FPL GW33 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide 
FPL Chip Strategy Guide with Key Notes for All The Chips
FPL GW33 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

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