Top FPL GW23 Differential Picks to Consider ahead of Deadline

It’s an exciting and busy period in FPL with a double gameweek and a double/blank gameweek coming up in the next three Gameweeks. FPL Managers are busy planning on how best to navigate the upcoming gameweeks alongside working on the chip strategy for the remainder of the season. It’s very important for your team to consist of a mix of players who offer you points in the short/medium/long term to go with your overall strategy and in this article, we will provide you with our Top 6 FPL GW23 Differential Picks with <10% ownership with stats, justification, and detailed analysis.

Note: The TSB mentioned is at the time of writing and is subject to change

Link to all our FPL GW23 blogs including Fixtures to target, Double and blank gameweek news, Predicted GW22 Lineups, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, transfer trends, and more. Completely free to access as well!

Top FPL GW23 Differential Picks <10% ownership

Eddie Nketiah vs Brentford(H), Man City(H), TSB:9.9%

Ever since the Jesus injury after the World Cup, Nketiah was roped in to start games. Since then, he has been on song with 4 goals, 32 points from 6 games with excellent underlying numbers as well. Only Erling Haaland(0.88) has better xG/90 in the league than Nketiah(0.81) since the World Cup break. With Jesus just back on the grass, he surely won’t be rushed and risked for the GW23 games atleast. Nketiah has better-underlying numbers than Arsenal counterparts Saka, Odegaard and Martinelli too. Despite these excellent numbers, Nketiah is surprisingly still less than 10% owned and makes the cut for the Differentials article!

Nketiah per 90 minutes Rank since World Cup(GW17)

• Shots inside the box- 2nd
• Expected Goals- 2nd
• Big Chances- 3rd

Further Read: Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks From FPL GW23

Benoît Badiashile vs West Ham(A), £5.0, TSB:0.7%

Badiashile has settled into the Chelsea defence quite nicely with the blues keeping a clean sheet in each of the three games he has played so far since his debut. He’s the 2nd highest-scoring Chelsea player in the last three games(20 pts) with only Kepa(29 pts) outscoring him.

From the initial few games, it’s clearly visible that Badiashile is an excellent passer(251, 2nd highest amongst Chelsea assets for successful passes from GW20) and comfortable with the ball which bodes well in terms of BPS. In the three games, he has recorded a BPS score of 80 which is the 3rd highest amongst Chelsea assets, just 1 BPS behind fellow defender Thiago Silva. His 28 BPS points in GW20 earned him 2 bonus points as well.

Chelsea don’t have a double in GW23/25 but also don’t blank in GW25 and importantly also don’t blank in GW28(vs Everton(H)). They are also highly likely to double in GW29 as well which makes Badiashile an excellent option to consider from an improving Chelsea defence. Even if you own Kepa, a double-up is certainly something that you can consider.

Since the restart, Chelsea have conceded an xGC(Expected goals conceded) of 6.87(3rd best in the league) keeping 4 clean sheets in 7 games(Joint 2nd best) which shows that they are regaining their defensive stability.

Also, Badiashile has also not been added to Chelsea’s UCL squad(Due to max 3 players rule) which means he’ll be nailed and well-rested to start in the PL games.

More on budget defenders in our FPL GW23 stream, the video will directly play from the defenders segment.

Jack Grealish vs Aston Villa(H), Arsenal(A), TSB: 1.6%

Jack Grealish is a great option to consider ahead of GW23 to attack the Double if you are not able to afford the likes of Mahrez/De Bruyne. He comes in at just 6.8 million and has 1 goal, 3 assists from 6 games since the World Cup break. Grealish is more direct and more involved inside the box after the World Cup break as seen from the below numbers. He almost takes Doubles the Shots inside the box post the World Cup break compared to before.

Grealish- GW1 to GW16 vs GW17 to GW22(Per 90 mins stats)

• Expected Goals- 0.20 vs 0.29
• Shots- 1.30 vs 2.18
• Shots inside the box- 1.14 vs 2.00

He is just owned by 1.6% managers and could fill as a surprise Differential pick if you are lacking the funds!

Further Read: When to Use Your FPL Chips? FPL Chip Strategy Explained

Zinchenko vs Brentford(H), Manchester City(H), TSB: 8.8%

Arsenal are among the Top 2 defensive sides in the league with respect to most of the numbers- Goals Conceded, Expected Goal Conceded, etc. With 5 fixtures from the next 3 Gameweeks and excellent fixture run post that(as seen below), An Arsenal defender should surely be in your plans. Arsenal also don’t blank surely in GW28 which makes the case event more stronger. FPL GW28 is a week where the FA Cup QFs happen which makes some teams blank. Why not pick the Arsenal Player of the Month for January who is in good form and is also less owned!

Matchup alert- Zinchenko

Since GW17, Brentford are ranked Top for crosses conceded down the Right flank. This is where Zinchenko operates and is good at delivering crosses if given the space. Who knows, There might be a Zinchenko assist, Nketiah Goal in GW23 to bag a Double Haul for our Differential Picks!

Further Read: Exploring the Best Arsenal FPL Trio for DGW23 onwards

Callum Wilson vs Bournemouth(A), TSB: 4.4%

Wilson has a goal and an assist from the last 3 games and is slowly getting back to his best. Over the last 3 games, Wilson had good underlying numbers: xG- 2.2, 4 Big chances, 11 shots inside the box. If you already have Nketiah & Haaland as part of your front three and have a luxury transfer to make, Wilson is an excellent 2 week punt. It is to be noted that Newcastle blank in GW25 and Wilson is a good pick only if you are considering short term or 2 weeks. Their next 2 opponents- Bournemouth and Liverpool are in terrible defensive form as seen by the below stats.

Wilson’s next two opponents Defensive Rank- Since GW17

Opponent	Goals Conceded	Mins/xGC Rank	Big Chances Conceded
GW22 vs BOU(A)	19th	19th	17th
GW23 vs LIV(H)	19th	16th	20th

Further Read: FPL GW23 Odds Preview: Goals, Clean Sheets & Predicted Points

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Max Kilman vs Southampton(A), TSB: 2.0%

Another defender on the list and this time it’s a defender who doubles in GW25. Kilman is in a very similar profile to Badiashile. He’s a guaranteed starter from the Wolves defence having played all 90 minutes in every PL game for Wolves this season. Although he doesn’t offer a lot of attacking threat, he’s an excellent asset in terms of BPS due to his strong passing capabilities. He’s second for BPS(351) and Bonus points(9) amongst Wolves assets.

Since GW17 When Lopetegui took over as manager, Wolves have conceded only 6 goals in 6 games(Only 5 teams have conceded fewer goals during the period). Out of the 6 goals conceded, 3 of them came in one game against Man City away where Haaland scored a hattrick.

Wolves have a double in GW25 vs Fulham(A) and Liverpool(A) but also have two good fixtures in GW23(vs Southampton, 4 goals in last six games, 2nd lowest amongst all teams during the period) and GW24(vs Bournemouth, (vs Southampton, 1 goal in last six games, Lowest amongst all teams during the period) which makes them an excellent team to consider going into GW23. They could also have a fixture in GW28 if Leeds lose to Fulham in their FA Cup 5th round game(We’ll know this before the GW26 deadline)

Strongly considering getting in Kilman this week!

Clean Sheet Odds:

📌GW23 vs SOU ~ 36%(6th Highest among SGW teams)
📌GW24 vs BOU ~ 48%(3rd highest)
📌GW25 vs FUL, LIV ~ 28%(5th highest), 13%

Data from @drafthound. Check full CS, Goal scoring odds👇https://t.co/t6QuvfRHVv pic.twitter.com/UCqhd35ewG

— ALLABOUTFPL (@allaboutfpl) February 9, 2023

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW23

FPL DGW23 Man City Assets to Target | Starting Odds & Rankings
FPL GW23 Scout Picks- Stats & Justification for each pick
Top FPL Gameweek 23 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Top FPL GW23 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)
FPL GW23 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down Key Dilemmas
FPL Gameweek 23 Transfer Tips: Players To Buy, Hold & Sell
Exploring the Best Arsenal FPL Trio for DGW23 onwards
Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks From FPL GW23
When to Use Your FPL Chips? FPL Chip Strategy Explained
FPL Teams & Players to Target from DGW23 to DGW25
FPL GW23 Odds Preview: Goals, Clean Sheets & Predicted Points
FPL GW23 Predicted Lineups, Press Conference Updates, Injury News
Top 10 FPL Triple Captain Hauls – FPL History
FPL GW23 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide
FPL GW23 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
FPL Stats Of Shithousery | GW22 Team Of The Weak

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