FPL GW23 Odds Preview: Goals, Clean Sheets & Predicted Points

With the DGW23 Deadline fast approaching, we look to the Bookmakers and Prediction Models to give us an idea of which teams and players are expected to haul. A lot can be drawn from these probability and prediction models if we are able to break them down. In this article, we will perform the analysis on a team level as well as a player level by taking a deeper look at the FPL GW23 Odds.

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Teams with Haul Potential in FPL GW23

Man City & Arsenal

Unsurprisingly it’s the two teams with a Double Gameweek predicted to haul in DGW23, especially in their first games of their double! City have been given a whooping 52% chance of scoring more than 2 goals against Aston Villa at home which means their players could score big even before kicking a ball in the second game of the double. Arsenal also have been given a massive 40% chance of putting more than 2 goals past Brentford in the first game of their double.

Liverpool, United and Newcastle

Aside from the obvious, there are a couple of other teams the bookies tip to score well this gameweek. United face a manager-less Leeds again after having played them as the second game of the double in GW22 and are given a 31% chance to put more than 2 goals past them. Meanwhile, Newcastle also have a good chance at achieving that same result, with the bookies giving them a 29% chance to do so. A rather surprising inclusion is Liverpool who have not been as upbeat and inspiring in their performances so far. They face a rejuvenated Everton at Anfield over the weekend and the bookies seems to believe this is the time for the Reds to turn things around, giving them a 36% chance to put over 2 goals past their Merseyside rivals.

Teams Predicted to Keep Clean Sheets in FPL DGW23

Man City

With the highest odds to keep a cleansheet this Gameweek in their first game of the double, City tops the Cleansheet Odds for DGW23. Bookies have given them a healthy 55% chance to clean up against Villa at the Etihad, putting City as firm favourites to take that game down. Something to consider is the ongoing financial saga regarding City breaching some rules which could have an effect on their on field performance. It is hard to say what effect it will have, but still important to know that it could play into the players’ minds.

Newcastle & Arsenal

Closely behind the 55% odds that City have been given to keep a Cleansheet, Newcastle and Arsenal both have a 50% chance to keep a clean sheet in DGW23. Newcastle have been a solid defensive outfit since the restart, keeping 5 clean sheets in a row since the restart before finally conceding against West Ham last gameweek. They play Bournemouth in GW23 and the bookies believe there is a good chance we see them clean up against the Cherries. Arsenal play Brentford at home as the first game of their double in GW23 and they have been rock solid at the Emirates. They are top in the league for xGC at home and it is no surprise the bookies have them as favourites to keep a clean sheet against Brentford.

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Players with Haul Potential

Haaland & Mahrez

Addressing the City assets that top the Predicted Points metric by Drafthound, it is no surprise Erling Haaland is far above the rest at 14.6 points. He is the kind of asset that you just would not want to bet against, simply because he could net a hat trick in any given game. Captaining anyone else would highly unpopular and should be done at your own risk. Mahrez comes next and has better expected points that KDB and Grealish, sitting comfortably behind Haaland at 11.3 points. When we consider the hotly debated KDB vs Mahrez match up, a big chunk of KDB’s xGI comes from xA, while it is pretty evenly split between xG and xA for Mahrez. In other words, Mahrez is an asset that is a genuine goal threat, far more than KDB who mostly gets his returns from assists. It is therefore logical that the Drafthound model has Mahrez higher on the metric and potentially makes him the better asset despite the rotation risk involved.

Odegaard & Saka

Probably the two best Midfielders to own from Arsenal at this point, Odegaard and Saka top the predicted points for Arsenal. It is interesting to see that the Drafthound model has them higher on the metric despite Nketiah putting up better xG numbers since the restart. This could be due to the extra point for a cleansheet and for scoring a goal. Coupled with the fact that they have 2 games to have a go at these extra points, we can start to see the justification for these numbers. In their own right, Odegaard and Saka have been impressive since returning from the World Cup break and the have been quite unlucky not to pick up more returns. Drafthound has them at 11.3 and 11.1 predicted points respectively and there’s a good chance we see a nice haul from them this gameweek.

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW23

FPL DGW23 Man City Assets to Target | Starting Odds & Rankings
FPL GW23 Scout Picks- Stats & Justification for each pick
Top FPL Gameweek 23 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Top FPL GW23 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)
FPL GW23 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down Key Dilemmas
FPL Gameweek 23 Transfer Tips: Players To Buy, Hold & Sell
Exploring the Best Arsenal FPL Trio for DGW23 onwards
Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks From FPL GW23
When to Use Your FPL Chips? FPL Chip Strategy Explained
FPL Teams & Players to Target from DGW23 to DGW25
FPL GW23 Odds Preview: Goals, Clean Sheets & Predicted Points
FPL GW23 Predicted Lineups, Press Conference Updates, Injury News
Top 10 FPL Triple Captain Hauls – FPL History
FPL GW23 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide
FPL GW23 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
FPL Stats Of Shithousery | GW22 Team Of The Weak

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