FPL GW18 Tips – Transfer Trends and Best Transfer Combinations

After a long and much-needed break, welcome back to the Transfer Trends series. This blog looks at popular transfer trends and determines the best transfer combinations ahead of FPL GW18. With everybody getting a free wildcard, there are seldom any high-priority transfers in the market. However, there are always a few transfers which can help FPL managers improve their teams.

Link to all our FPL GW18 blogs including Fixtures to target, Predicted GW18 Lineups, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, transfer trends, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW18 Tips | Transfer Deadline

FPL GW18 Deadline: 28th December, Friday 6:15 PM BST, Friday evening deadline

Top Transfer Ins and Outs ahead of FPL GW18

So far, the most transferred-out player in the game has been Jesus. He didn’t feature in GW17 and is expected to be out till February. Reece James is also another player who 80k managers have lost the faith in after he picked up a knock and was subbed off at the 50th-minute mark.

The Top Transfers In have Mitrovic on top with more than 240k managers bringing him in already. Ivan Toney and Marcus Rashford also performed brilliantly, thereby being brought in by many managers.

FPL GW18 Tips – Best Transfer Combinations

Transfer Combination 1:

James (5.8m) to Shaw (4.8m)

The best transfer combination ahead of FPL GW18 is Reece James to Luke Shaw. Reece James came down at the 50th-minute mark during their game against Bournemouth due to a knee injury. Graham Potter had also reported earlier that his minutes are going to be managed ahead and we might see some rotation risk involved with him. This makes him a less appealing option, even in their double gameweek, as there are fewer chances that he starts both games.

Chelsea’s statement on James’ injury – “Reece James underwent assessment earlier today, scan results confirmed a setback with Reece set to be ruled out for up to a month”, club confirms

At the same time, Manchester United have been performing well and also have decent fixtures lined up. In the previous match, they had an xGC of just 0.71 and managed to keep a clean sheet as well. Luke Shaw, at the price of 4.8m provides incredible value to jump on United’s defence.

Underlying Numbers

Luke Shaw over the last four Premier League matches had an Expected Goal Involvement of 0.65. His attacking returns in the previous game looked a little less likely as he started the game as a Left Centre Back. However, he still managed to get 2 Bonus Points and is a player who would attract bonus points when the team manages to keep a clean sheet. Therefore, given his upcoming fixtures, his points potential continues to be high.

Fixture Analysis | Man United

Luke Shaw seems to be a good pick for the long term as well with Manchester United having a decent run of fixtures all the way up until GW23. This was also one of the reasons why many FPL managers had him in the squad for GW17. Wolves and Bournemouth, both are teams who tend to be on the lower side of scoring goals making it easier for United to keep a clean sheet. Both teams recorded an xG in the bottom half of the table in GW17.

Further Read: Best Reece James Replacements ahead of FPL GW18

Transfer Combination 2:

Wilson (7.4m) to Mitrovic (6.9m)

The next transfer combination is Newcastle’s Callum Wilson to Mitrovic. Going into GW17, Wilson was doubtful to start the game against Leicester and was not even in the squad as well. Even for GW18, his minutes are not certain and are chances that he might be phased back into the team. With a lot of other options in the forward position being available, a lot of managers are looking to replace him ahead of FPL GW18.

The perfect transfer seems to be Mitrovic in his place. Mitrovic has maintained an incredible record so far and also doesn’t seem to discriminate against tougher oppositions. He has managed to score even against the traditional top six and is the most reliable striker after Haaland in the game right now.

Underlying Numbers

Average Statistic per 90 mins	Callum Wilson	Aleksandar Mitrović
Expected Goals	0.73	0.69
Shots	3.17	5.13
Shots on Target	1.25	2.03
Expected Assists	0.12	0.19
Attempted Assists	1.13	0.98
Big Chance Created	0.11	0.41

The table also shows how better Mitrovic has been this season. Both the strikers have been immense so far and provide incredible value. However, Mitrovic has been on a different level so far. Mitrovic has the second most goal attempts this season, just behind Nunez and ahead of Haaland. He is also ranked 7th in terms of penalty area touches among the forwards. It can also be seen in the player heatmap below.

Fixture Analysis | Fulham

The double for Fulham in GW19 against Leicester and Chelsea makes Mitrovic a must-have for this run. As we have seen previously in the season, the opponent barely matters to him, the double provides him with the opportunity to go big. Apart from that, he faces Southampton in GW18, who are 12th for expected goals conceded over the last four matches. Even Leicester have been conceding a lot of goals, they conceded three goals against Newcastle in GW17.

Further Read: FPL GW18 Differential Picks to Consider | FPL GW18 Preview

Transfer Combination 3:

Maddison (8.2m) to Mount (7.5m)

The third transfer combination on this list is yet another James (Maddison) to Mason Mount. Many managers have removed Maddison already due to his injury concerns, and Mount could be the perfect replacement in place. Chelsea after playing Nottingham Forest, have a double Gameweek in GW19. Therefore, targetting the doubles and also looking at Chelsea’s form, he could deliver big in the upcoming Gameweeks.

James Maddison has seen a knee specialist and will not play against Liverpool on Friday. Brendan Rodgers said, “[Maddison] was with our doctor getting some special advice in London so I’ll wait to hear from them later on. He hasn’t trained with the squad.”

Underlying Numbers

Average Statistic per 90 mins	Mason Mount
Expected Goals	0.05
Shots	1.63
Shots on Target	1.09
Expected Assists	0.08
Attempted Assists	1.36

Although Mason Mount doesn’t have the best underlying numbers, he still manages to get into good positions and rack up a few goals and assists. He has 20.4 minutes per FPL point over the last four Gameweeks. He is a threat from set-pieces and always has the potential to score a wonder goal from 30 yards away as he did against Bournemouth. Currently, in this bracket, he is the best option to go for, along considering Maddison’s injury and Foden being a victim of Pep’s roulette.

Fixture Analysis | Chelsea

Chelsea have an amazing run of fixtures which includes their double in GW19 against City and Fulham. City indeed have a good defence and would make it difficult for Chelsea to score past them. However, big games like this usually end in unpredictable results. Mount could be a really good option for the next couple of gameweeks, including the double in GW19.

Let’s take a look at the defensive rankings of Chelsea’s next three opponents, barring Man City as we know that they are one of the best defences in the league based on the underlying numbers.

Defensive Stats (Rank)	Shots Conceded	SiB Conceded	Shots from Set Piece conceded	Big Chances Conceded
nfo	16th	20th	14th	17th
ful	9th	14th	19th	16th
CRY	10th	13th	20th	11th

All the teams here have conceded many shots and chances from set-pieces, which makes returns for Mount more likely. All the defences over Chelsea’s next run are quite leaky and tend to let in a lot of goals. Therefore, taking a punt on Mount could be worthwhile over this period.

Further Read: FPL GW18 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

Conclusion – FPL GW18 Tips

• Saving a transfer this week is not the worst idea out there. It could help plan for the double in GW19
• Manchester United attackers like Rashford and Martial are great differentials to own, and could also help you gain ranks.
• Try to keep a Chelsea defender in your team as they could rack up a lot of clean sheets in the upcoming Gameweeks.
• Spurs wing-backs, Botman, and Dunk all could be great differential to replace Reece James.
• And lastly, keep the future double Gameweeks in mind, before making any transfers.

Thank you for reading this blog and have a great season ahead!

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW18

FPL GW18 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
FPL GW18 Tips – Transfer Trends and Best Transfer Combinations
Top FPL Gameweek 18 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Best Reece James Replacements ahead of FPL GW18
FPL GW18 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down Key Dilemmas
FPL Gameweek 18 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW18 Scout Picks with Justifcation Based on Stats
FPL GW18 Differential Picks to Consider | FPL GW18 Preview
Predicted GW18 Lineups of All 20 Premier League Teams
Players close to a suspension ahead of FPL GW18

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