After a 6 week break, the Premier League is finally back. Depending upon your point of view, you may or may not like that the break with unlimited transfers has led to most squads shaping up with a similar core of players. However, we think that in observing and finding data and new trends post-break, there lies a great opportunity to get ahead of the pack! One single gameweek of data after a break with some players still returning from their World Cup journey – that’s nothing to make definitive conclusions or base moves upon. However, I’m going to try to bring some FPL Gameweek 18 transfer suggestions with a base of stats and with some thought into fixtures, squad structure etc.
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Link to all our FPL GW18 blogs including Fixtures to target, Predicted GW18 Lineups, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, transfer trends, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL Gameweek 18 Transfer Tips: Two Players to BUY
Martin Odegaard (6.4, MID, Arsenal)
You might be surprised to learn that Arsenal’s captain is currently their highest-scoring midfielder, ahead of both Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli. Odegaard continued where he left off before the break, driving Arsenal into the final third with impetus in a performance that saw him create 5 chances including 2 big chances and have 6 shots total despite landing 0 on target. He ended with an xA of 0.88 and xG of 0.34.
With this Arsenal team playing the way it is, it would be sensible to double up in attack and Odegaard is beginning to look like a great option for his all-round points potential and strong showing in the Bonus Point System.
Odegaard vs Saka vs Martinelli(Since GW9):
- xGI- 4.53 vs 4.53 vs 2.66
- Shots- 23 vs 13 vs 13
- Shots Inside the box- 11 vs 10 vs 9
- Big chances- 2 vs 3 vs 1
- Big chances created- 7 vs 2 vs 2
- FPL Points- 54 vs 48 vs 46
Odegaard has outperformed Saka and Martinelli in terms of underlying numbers and also FPL returns. Also comes at a lower price compared to his teammates Odegaard and Martinelli!
Further Read: Best Reece James Replacements ahead of FPL GW18
2) Aleksandar Mitrovic (6.9, Fulham, FWD)
A bit of an obvious pick and yet, I’m featuring him this week because I think it’s the best time to bring him in if you’re a manager who decided to wait and see on his fitness and were dealt a harsh blow for a seemingly sensible decision.
Mitrovic may have accumulated a chunk of his underlying numbers against 10 and then 9-men of Crystal Palace but the Serbian has been in red-hot form all year and is coming into a schedule of Southampton followed by a double gameweek. He notched up an xG of 0.83 and xA of 0.96 against Palace and is the penalty-taking talisman for an offensive Fulham side that have taken on every team they’ve faced this season.
His fixtures get more difficult soon and he’s 1 yellow card away from a ban(Players close to a suspension ahead of FPL GW18) in his next 2 games but given the fixtures, I believe he’s worth a pick especially for his next 2.
Further Read: FPL GW18 Differential Picks to Consider | FPL GW18 Preview
FPL Gameweek 18 Transfer Tips: Two players to HOLD
Darwin Nunez (9.0, Liverpool, FWD)
In a gameweek where nearly every single popular pick across the game managed some returns, it stings owners for Darwin to come away with a blank. However, he’s an easy hold at the moment. Darwin continues to get himself into elite goalscoring positions, a highly valuable ability and he’s earned some time before we can make a conclusion on him as a ‘weak’ finisher. He had a gameweek-high FOUR big chances against Aston Villa but missed all 4. He ended with an xG of 1.16 and xA of 0.06 en route his blank.
Further Read: FPL GW18 Tips – Transfer Trends and Best Transfer Combinations
2) Kevin De Bruyne (12.6, Manchester City, MID)
Another dull and safe ‘hold’ from me but for high value assets who’ve blanked, it bears saying. The Belgian looked incredibly good on the eye-test against Leeds. He had 3 shots and 4 key passes for an xG of 0.13 and xA of 0.63 – strong numbers for a player with a proven track record of overperforming his underlying xG and now supplying a forward that’s smashing hs xG as well. He’s also a City premium asset that I think will be less prone to rotation than their other popular assets and so I’d recommend holding onto him.
Further Read: Predicted GW18 Lineups of All 20 Premier League Teams
FPL Gameweek 18 Transfer Tips: Two players to SELL
Callum Wilson (7.4, Newcastle United, FWD)
Picked by a fair few teams due to being a clinical, penalty-taking forward for an in-form Newcastle United – Wilson missed out this week due to illness and based on comments made after the match, even though he will be fit, I feel like his minutes will be limited in the next gameweek before a likely start against Arsenal. Due to the quality of options available at just below his price which allows a 1-transfer-move, I believe its better to cut your losses on Wilson rather than hold on and hope he starts on his return to fitness this week.
Further Read: FPL GW18 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
2. Wilfried Zaha (7.5, Crystal Palace, MID)
It’s hard to pick ‘sell’ candidates that aren’t fairly obvious like James or not well-owned by engaged managers anyway like Walker and Perisitc – which leads me to suggesting Wilf Zaha.
He’s Palace’s talisman but both his and the team’s inconsistency combined with fixtures getting difficult after a plum fixture against Bournemouth as well as the sheer number of well-performing midfield assets lead me to suggest selling him after this gameweek’s game.
Assets like Rashford, Odegaard, Martinelli, Trossard, Mitoma, Mount etc could all have potential upcoming doubles and are priced around or below Zaha.
Very early doors but both Bailey and Digne had good numbers for Unai Emery’s Villa against Liverpool this week, a personal-favourite Karou Mitoma had 4 shots and 0.81 xG for Brighton, Robertson looked like a creative force while Salah and Haaland are evergreen in their underlying metrics – Some notes from the gameweek.
Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW18
FPL GW18 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
FPL GW18 Tips – Transfer Trends and Best Transfer Combinations
Top FPL Gameweek 18 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Best Reece James Replacements ahead of FPL GW18
FPL GW18 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down Key Dilemmas
FPL Gameweek 18 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW18 Scout Picks with Justifcation Based on Stats
FPL GW18 Differential Picks to Consider | FPL GW18 Preview
Predicted GW18 Lineups of All 20 Premier League Teams
Players close to a suspension ahead of FPL GW18
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