FPL Gameweek 16 Differential Picks to Consider ahead of Deadline

We are into the last week of FPL before we break for the World Cup. After this Gameweek, we will have unlimited transfers to make. As a result, it makes total sense to use up all the free transfers. Because we can change our squad again after this week, it is a perfect time to go for one week punts. In this article, we will provide you with our Top 6 FPL Gameweek 16 Differential Picks with <10% ownership with stats, justification and detailed analysis.

Note: The TSB mentioned is at the time of writing and is subject to change

Link to all our FPL GW16 blogs including Fixtures to target, Predicted GW16 Lineups, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, transfer trends, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL Gameweek 16 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)

Darwin Nunez vs Southampton(H), £8.9, TSB: 8.3%

Darwin Nunez registered 7 points last week against Spurs, as he picked up an assist along with 2 bonus points. Those were his first bonus points since GW1. In reality though, the haul could have been that much bigger. The forward had three shots in the box, created 1 big chance, and also hit the crossbar. On the whole, he has 2 goals and an assist in his last 4 starts.

Darwin is top for shots, shots in the box, shots on target, big chances, xG, BCC, xA, xPts per 90 among Liverpool players. Overall in the league, only Haaland can boast better numbers than the Liverpool forward.

Liverpool’s opponents, Southampton have kept only 1 clean sheet so far this season, the lowest tally in the league. The Saints have given away 24 goals, only three teams have given away more. They will be under a new coach this week as well, the perfect opportunity for Darwin to finally register that long-awaited big haul.

Further Read: FPL GW16 Preview – Breaking Down Dilemmas for Gameweek 16

Harvey Barnes vs West Ham(A), £6.9, TSB: 1.7%

Harvey Barnes scored in Leicester’s impressive 2-0 win against Everton last time out. That made it 4 wins in their last 7 matches. Barnes has scored in 4 of those 7 matches, including goals in each of his last two away games.

Barnes is top for shots on target, shots in the box, big chances, xG and way ahead in xPts too than any of his teammates. He has also scored in each of his team’s wins so far this season.

The midfielder has 2 goals and 2 assists against West Ham in his career. The Hammers have the second-worst tally in the league for % of chances conceded down the right side of their defense. Barnes would be looking to exploit that, just like Zaha did last week.

Further Read: Predicted GW16 Lineups of All 20 Premier League Teams Along With PC News/Injury Updates

Dejan Kulusevski vs Leeds(H), £8.0, TSB: 3.9%

Kulusevski came back from injury last week and registered an immediate impact as he got the assist for Harry Kane’s goal. Overall this season, he has 1 goal and 4 assists. He played only 30 minutes in the Carabao cup tie last night, so he should be relatively fresh for the weekend game.

Spurs also welcomed back Richarlison from injury in the Carabao cup, which means for the first time in 5 games they will be able to field a proper front three. This, therefore enhances the possibility of getting attacking returns for their attackers.

Meanwhile, Leeds have the fourth worst NPxGA in the league so far. They have also conceded the fourth most number of big chances, despite playing a game less than a lot of times. They are also one of only two sides to have not kept a clean sheet on the road this season.

Gameweek 8 was the last time Kulusevski played. As we can see, there is a clear difference in attacking numbers of Spurs since his injury. The Swede scored in his only league appearance against Leeds in his career in a 4-0 win for Conte’s men towards the end of last season.

Conte also dropped hints on starting Kulusevski vs Leeds in GW16 as quoted below-

“Good news! I liked the way Richarlison came in and the effort he made showed he has recovered. The same for Deki(Kulusevski) and I hope to have them start on Saturday. To pick them in the starting XI would be great for us, because it is an important game on Saturday. If we finished this cycle with qualification in the Champions League and a good position in the table it would be in my opinion really good.”

Further Read: FPL GW16 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide

Anthony Martial vs Fulham(A), £6.7, TSB: 0.7%

Anthony Martial has missed the vast majority of this season due to injury. However, when he has played he has been impactful. In the 128 minutes that he has played, he has registered 2 goals and 2 assists. The Frenchman returned from injury last week against Aston Villa, and is more likely to start ahead of Ronaldo for the trip to Fulham.

Fulham have conceded 46 big chances so far this season, which is 9 more than any other team. They also have the worst xGC, xCS and NPxGA in the league. Marco Silva’s men are fourth worst when it comes to goals conceded. At home, it is even worse as only Southampton have conceded more goals in their own backyard.

Fulham have given away the joint third most % of chances down the center. That is exactly where Martial operates. Meanwhile, the Frenchman also has 1 goal and 1 assist in his last two visits to Craven Cottage in the league.

Martial started in the Carabao cup game against Aston Villa and scored a goal indicating he’s in good touch, he was also hooked around the hour mark. Ronaldo missed out due to illness(Could be preserving himself for the WC) and Ten Hag was not definitive if he’ll return for the Fulham game which in all likelihood guarantees Martial a starting spot.

Further Read: FPL GW16 Preview – Breaking Down Dilemmas for Gameweek 16

Alex Iwobi vs Bournemouth(A), £5.6, TSB: 1.9%

Alex Iwobi has been a revelation for Everton this season. The Everton man has been a transformed player under Frank Lampard, in this changed position in the middle of the park. He has 1 goal and 5 assists so far. He has been in involved in 55% of the Toffees’ goals this season, the highest ratio in the league. Only once in his Premier League career he has got more assists in a season.

Iwobi has the third best xPts tally among Evertonians so far. He is second only to Pickford bonus points, has created the most number of big chances and has also played more key passes than any of his teammates.

Meanwhile, Bournemouth has been having a free fall all season at the back. The Cherries have conceded 7 goals in the last two matches in the league, games in which they had a 2 goal cushion and somehow found ways to lose. No team has conceded more goals(32) than the South Coast side.

Further Read: What is FPL CUP? What are the rules? | 2022/23 FPL Cup Guide

FPL Gameweek 16 Ultra Differential Pick(<1% TSB)

Kaoru Mitoma vs Aston Villa(H), £4.9, TSB: 0.1%

This young man has only started two games so far in the league. But, he has already made a huge impact. After registering an assist against Chelsea in his first start, Mitoma scored his first-ever league goal last week at Wolves. He also played a key role in one of the other goals in that game. Overall in the league this season, the Japanese international has 1 goal and 2 assists.

Mitoma continued his excellent form in the midweek Carabao Cup tie too as he scored a stunning goal in Brighton’s 3-1 triumph against Arsenal last night.

Despite playing just 309 minutes, Mitoma has already created 3 big chances, only two of his teammates have created more, however, they have played thrice as many minutes as the Japanese. Mitoma is top for big chances created per 90, key passes per 90, BPS per 90, xA per 90 among his compatriots.

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW16

Top FPL Gameweek 16 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW16 Preview – Breaking Down Dilemmas for Gameweek 16
FPL GW16 Scout Picks | FPLDaggaFC & AllAboutFPL
FPL Gameweek 16 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW16 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide
FPL Gameweek 16 Differential Picks to Consider ahead of The Deadline
Predicted GW16 Lineups of All 20 Premier League Teams
FPL GW15 Team Wise Review With Key Stats & Notes
FPL Stats Of Shithousery | GW15 Team Of The Weak
What is FPL CUP? What are the rules? | 2022/23 FPL Cup Guide

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