GW9 saw many FPL managers hit the 100-point mark for the first time this season. Thanks to massive Haaland Haul and Differential Picks like Maddison, Bowen, Foden, and Trossard all coming into the party. Getting in this those differentials would help you get huge green arrows and catch up ranks. In this blog, we’ll look at the Top 6 FPL GW10 Differentials including one Ultra Differential pick with <1% ownership for GW10.
Note: The TSB mentioned is at the time of writing and is subject to change
Link to all our FPL GW11 blogs including Wildcard Guide, Fixtures to target, Predicted 11, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, transfer trends, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW10 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)
Ollie Watkins vs Nottingham Forest(A), £7.2, TSB: 2.1%
10 points from the last 5 games despite playing 90 minutes in all these games, What does Watkins do here? The end product always doesn’t tell the entire story. In the last 2 games, Watkins looked really good on the eye test and was in good positions. He also had good underlying numbers in the last 2 games with 5 shots on target, 3 big chances and xG-1.28 despite getting no returns.
He could be a great Differential option for GW10 and beyond with nice fixtures and a good fixture vs Fulham in GW12 when both Arsenal and City blank. Watkins GW10 opponent Forest have conceded have conceded the 2nd most goals(21), Most shots on Target(53), 2nd worst xGC(14.27) in the league this season.
Watkins stats over the last 2 GWs(among forwards):
- Non-Penalty xG: 1.29(Joint 2nd)
- Big chances: 3(Joint 2nd)
- Shots on Target: 5(Joint 2nd)
- Shots inside the box: 7(2nd)
Match up alert-
Watkins next 5 opponents- Forest, Chelsea, Fulham, Brentford, Newcastle rank 2nd, 10th, 3rd, 4th, 6th for chances conceded from the center this season. Watkins should make use of this in the coming weeks.
Further Read: FPL GW9 Review- Key Stats and Notes
Jarrod Bowen vs Fulham(H), £8.1, TSB: 4.1%
After having a poor start to the season with 0 goals and 0 assists from the first 7 games, Jarod Bowen is up and running with a goal, assist and 14 points vs Wolves in GW9. At just 4.1% ownership he is one of the Differential Picks to consider ahead of GW10. West Ham attack always attack better and perform better at home compared to away(32 point vs 24 points last season). This is also suggested by the below numbers as they have double the xG at home compared to away despite playing City, Brighton and Tottenham in 3/4 home games this season.
West Ham Attack- Home vs Away
- Matches- 4 vs 4
- Expected Goals(xG)- 3.53 vs 1.70
- Minutes per chance- 7.4 vs 8.4
- Shots inside the box- 32 vs 26
Bowen’s GW10 opponent Fulham are arguable the worst defensive side in the league at the moment.
Fulham’s defensive woes(League Rank)
- Expected Goals Conceded- 16.01(1st)
- Shots inside the box conceded- 86(3rd)
- Big chances conceded- 26(1st)
- Shots on Target conceded- 43(4th)
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 10 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold and Sell
Roberto Firmino vs Arsenal(A), £7.9, TSB: 3.9%
Firmino has silently been one of the most in-form players in the league with 8 goal contributions(5 goals, 3 assists) from last 3 starts with 43 FPL points averaging 14.33 FPL Points/game. To add to this, Klopp has switched to a 4-2-3-1 formation in the UCL game vs Rangers compared to the usual 4-3-3 in which they operate. This should not only mean more assured minutes for Firmino but also more direct attacking threat from the Front 4 rather than the usual Front 3.
From the 6 games he has played this season, he has xG-3.37, 16 shots inside the box, 6 big chances, xA-1.31, 2 big chances created which are really good numbers for a 4% owned forward.
Roberto Firmino in his last 3 starts-
- Minutes- 232
- Goals- 5
- Assists- 3
- FPL Points- 43
Matchup alert-
Roberto Firmino’s favourite opponents are Arsenal- In his last 8 games vs Arsenal, Firmino scored 8 goals, 3 assists.
Firmino was also rested for the midweek CL game vs Rangers. If you want to go for a cheeky punt who also has a good fixture in GW12, Firmino might well be the right one.
Further Read: Predicted GW10 Lineups of All 20 Premier League Teams
Tyrone Mings vs Forest(A), £4.3, TSB: 4.0%
Villa have 2 clean sheets from their last 2 games and are looking like a more settled unit at the back. At just 4.3 million, he is one of the best budget enablers in the game who should help you get the costly picks.
One major advantage of going with Mings is that you can start in both GW10 vs Forest, GW12 vs Fulham(when both City and Arsenal blank). Forest and Fulham rank 16th and 19th for Open Play xG this season and there could be 2 clean sheets coming your way.
Further Read: FPL GW10 Fixtures & Players To Target | Best Matchups | FPL Paz
Timothy Castagne vs Bournemouth(A), £4.4, TSB: 1.3%
Leicester defense has been very poor this season conceding in the most goals(22) among all teams this season. It is a matter of attacking the fixtures. Their upcoming fixtures show promise- Bournemouth(A), Palace(H), Wolves(A) in 3 out of the next 4 games who rank 20th, 19th, 18th for Expected Goals this season.
Castagne already has 1 goal, 1 assist from 7 games and there could be more which goof fixtures in the coming weeks.
Matchup alert-
Bournemouth rank 1st for Chances conceded from Left Flank(41) and Crosses conceded from left flank(138) in Premier League this season. Castagne usually operates in higher positions on the this flank as seen in the image. Maddison and Castagne could have a proper feast against Bournemouth here in GW10.
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 10 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold and Sell
Ultra-Differential Pick for FPL GW10(<1% TSB)
Anthony Martial vs Everton(A), £6.9, TSB: 0.9%
Martial had a great preseason under Ten Hag scoring 3 goals and registering an assist in 290 minutes and was set to be the first-choice striker for the season. Unfortunately, injuries have not been kind to the Man United forward and so far he has played only 76 minutes in the league against Liverpool and Man City but has registered 2 goals and an assist which is quite impressive. Martial is the best option Ten Hag has got currently and ETH would put him straight into the starting 11 vs Everton, with the United attack creating a decent amount of chances, Martial should be amongst the goals.
Fun Fact: In the 2019/20 season in which he played as a striker Martial registered 200 points from 17 goals and 9 assists. If he’s fit and firing he could well have similar returns like that season.
Scored the penalty even when Bruno Fernandes was on the pitch vs Manchester City
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW10
FPL Gameweek 10 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold and Sell
FPL GW10 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of GW10 Deadline
FPL GW10 Transfer Trends | Best Transfer Combinations & Tips
FPL GW9 Review- Key Stats and Notes
FPL GW10 Scout Picks | FPLDaggaFC & AllAboutFPL
SPITCH Matchday 10 Preview | Top Picks, Tips & Team Reveal
Predicted GW10 Lineups of All 20 Premier League Teams
FPL GW10 Fixtures & Players To Target | Best Matchups | FPL Paz
FPL Stats Of Shithousery | GW9 Team Of The Weak
FPL GW10 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
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Srinivasan S
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