FPL GW2 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of GW2 Deadline

The Fantasy Premier League is back with a bang as we got all the usual FPL happenings take place. Salah delivered just as he was bound to. But Kane and Jesus blanked, along with Liverpool defenders. Plus, the whole community is running after Haaland, who a week back needed time to adapt to our league. FPL is well and truly back folks. One week in, we already have a better idea of who to pick in our teams. If only FPL had the option of making unlimited transfers in GW2 as well. Nonetheless, we are back with our top 6 differential picks ahead of FPL GW2 deadline.

Link to all our FPL GW2 blogs including fixtures to target, predicted 11, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer trends, and more. Completely free to access as well!

Note: The TSB mentioned is at the time of writing and is subject to change

FPL GW2 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)

Patrick Bamford vs Southampton(H), £7.5, TSB:1.5%

One of the teams who impressed the most in Gameweek 1 was Leeds United. Jesse Marsch’s men looked every bit the attacking side they once were under Bielsa. The Whites, led by Patrick Bamford beat Wolves comfortably by 2-1 in Molineaux.

Bamford got the assist for the winner against Bruno Lage’s men, which ended up being an own goal. The Englishman carried on from where he left off in the last pre-season game, where he registered 2 goals against Cagliari.

In Gameweek 1, only Haaland(4) and Darwin(3) had more big chances than Patrick Bamford(2). One of the big chances he missed was a miraculous save made by Sa. On eye test, the striker seems to have regained the form he had in the 2020-21 season.

Bamford registered 17 goals and 11 assists in the 2019-20 season, getting 194 FPL points in the process. We’re not saying he is going to repeat that feat. However, stats suggest that he can become a reliable FPL asset again.

Patrick Bamford- Key Stats

• Three goals in his last three starts against Southampton
• Five of next six games has an FDR rating of 2

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Aaron Cresswell vs Nottingham Forest(A), £5.0, TSB: 3.4%

Aaron Cresswell has been one of the most consistent performers in the Premier League in the last couple of years. He has registered 2 goals and 15 assists in the past two campaigns. The Hammers take on Nottingham Forest in FPL GW2, a team that impressed the least last week.

The newly promoted club conceded more shots than anyone else last week. They also had the worst xGC(2.49) of all teams in GW1. On top of that, only Manchester United(5) conceded more headed attempts than Forest(4). We all know how good Cresswell is with his crossing. Cresswell assist, Antonio/Scamacca header is very probable.

While at one end they struggled to keep their opposition at bay, they also found it very hard to create goal-scoring opportunities. They could only manage an xG of mere 0.1. Therefore, it is safe to say that the chances of the Hammers keeping a clean sheet is very high.

Meanwhile, each of West Ham’s next three games have an FDR rating of 2. That is exactly what they would have hoped for after running into the Haaland storm.

Aaron Cresswell – Crunching Numbers

• Among defenders priced £5.0 or below, only Ryan Sessegnon(6) created more big chances than Cresswell(5)
• Cucurella(21) the only other defender in the aforementioned category to have got more bonus points than Cresswell(17)

Further Read: Predicted GW2 Lineups of All 20 PL Teams

Ilkay Gundogan vs Bournemouth (H), £7.5, TSB: 1.2%

One of the players that stood out after Manchester City’s win at West Ham, apart from Haaland of course, was Ilkay Gundogan. The midfielder was instrumental in everything that Manchester City did at the London stadium. He played the key pass that led to the penalty, which in turn led to the opening goal.

Haaland admitted in his post-match interview that he should have gotten a hattrick, referring to Gundogan’s attempted assist. Only KDB(3) played more key passes in the game than the German(2). Furthermore, he also had four touches in the box, despite operating from a deeper position.

After City’s performance against the Hammers, a lot of managers are looking for that third asset from the champions. The likes of Grealish and Foden have been talked about. But as we can see from the above figure the touches Gundogan had in the box were more threatening than the other two.

There are two other things that make Gundogan a better proposition. One, Bernardo Silva’s imminent departure. It makes the German rotation proof, at least, as it stands. Two, he is 0.5 million cheaper than someone like a Foden.

City were seen playing a 2-3-5 Formation against West Ham with full backs Walker and Cancelo dropping in midfield alongside Rodri. This meant that Grealish and Foden were drawn towards the sidelines which reduces their FPL appeal and good positions in the box for the Left #8 in Gundogan. It is likely that Gundogan will be preferred against Bournemouth who play as a back 5 and sit deep. Should be a great differential pick for GW2 and also could turn out to be a FPL Gem if Bernado leaves the club.

Ilkay Gundogan- Key Stat

• Has two goals in six matches against Bournemouth

Further Read: FPL GW2 Fixtures & Players to Target | Best Matchups | FPL Paz

Jack Harrison vs Southampton(H), £6.0, TSB: 1.1%

Jack Harrison becomes the second Leeds player on our differential list. Why wouldn’t we pick him considering the fixtures they have and the opponent they are facing. Indeed, only Nottingham Forest conceded more shots and more shots in the box than the Saints in Gameweek 1. Furthermore, no other team conceded more goals than Ralf Hassenhuttl’s men did(4).

Southampton incidentally conceded 35% of their chances down the left flank. That is exactly where Harrison operates. A match made in heaven! Southampton has the tendency to concede a lot of goals and chances. If you had seen the freedom Ryan Sessgnon enjoyed down the left side you could easily relate to what we’re talking about. Harrison had the best xA(1) in GW1.

In FPL GW1, Jack Harrison created 7 chances, more than any other player. It is also his personal best in his career. He also created the joint most big chances(2) in the matchday. Furthermore, only five English players have created more chances than Harrison in the Premier League, since September 2020. Those players being Mount, Trent, Grealish, Shaw, and Ward-Prowse.

Further Read: Players in Focus Based on Stats & Eye Test Ahead of FPL GW2

Jarrod Bowen vs Nottingham Forest (A), £8.5, TSB: 6.6%

Jarrod Bowen was the joint fourth highest points scorer in FPL last season. Indeed his 206 FPL points was only bettered by Trent(208), Son(258), and Salah(265). That is exactly the reason why he is priced at £8.5. Yet, we FPL managers feel that he is overpriced.

As stated earlier, Nottingham Forest was bottom for most of the key defensive stats from GW1. Meanwhile, Bowen has a very good record over the years against Forest. He has registered 3 goals and 1 assist against these opponents in 7 matches, in the championship of course.

Bowen is almost in the same price bracket as the likes of Foden, Mount, Saka. While those players are one of the key players for their teams, Bowen is the top guy for West Ham. He was top for shots on target, goals, assists. He was second only to Fornals(10) for big chances created(9) among his compatriots.

Further Read: FPL GW2 Transfer Trends And Best Transfer Combinations & Tips

FPL GW2 Ultra Differential Pick(<1% TSB)

Danny Welbeck vs Newcastle(H), £6.5, TSB: 0.8%

Brighton arguably pulled off the best result from Matchday 1. Danny Welbeck played an instrumental role in helping the Seagulls beat his former club, Manchester United, at Old Trafford. Welbeck got the assist for Pascal Gross’ opening goal against Ten Hag’s men.

Welbeck was more or less involved in everything that Brighton did last week. Only Erling Haaland(5) registered more shots in the box than Welbeck(4). Furthermore, only Darwin(0.69) and Harrison(1) had a better xA than the Englishman(0.59).

Welbeck also registered more key passes than any other player last week. He really did have quite a game. But that doesn’t come as a surprise. Let us take a look at some numbers for Brighton players from last season.

Danny Welbeck was top for goals, shots on target, xG, big chances, shots in the box, points per 90 among his compatriots. In fact, he was the sixth best for big chances per 90 in the entire league.

Each of Brighton’s next 7 fixtures has an FDR rating of either 2 or 3. Plus he is priced only at £6.5. Therefore, he is an astute pick if you are looking to save some funds to ramp up the midfield.

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW2

Top FPL Gameweek 2 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW2 Transfer Trends And Best Transfer Combinations & Tips
FPL GW2 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of GW2 Deadline
FPL GW2 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide
Players in Focus Based on Stats & Eye Test Ahead of FPL GW2 
FPL GW2 Preview: Breaking Down FPL Dilemmas for Gameweek 2
FPL Gameweek 2 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold and Sell
Predicted GW2 Lineups of All 20 PL Teams
FPL GW2 Fixtures & Players to Target | Best Matchups | FPL Paz
Set-Piece & Penalty Takers Of All Premier League Clubs
FPL GW1 Review Based on Eye Test & Stats | FPL Trybe
FPL GW2 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
How Premier League Footballers fared as FPL Managers in FPL GW1?
FPL Stats of Shithousery | GW1 Team of the Weak

Link to all our FPL GW2 blogs including fixtures to target, predicted 11, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer trends, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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