Doherty is reportedly set to miss the rest of the season following the knee injury suffered against Villa. Some of us would still have Tierney who is out for the season and Wolves defenders who would blank in FPL GW33. With most of us in the market for FPL defenders, let’s look at potential replacements. Do follow me on Twitter(@EnthusiastFpl)
All stats were taken from the Fantasy Football Scout Members Area.
State of Fixtures Ahead of FPL GW33
Before proceeding any further, let’s have a look at the fixture schedule by @BenCrellin.
TEAM PERFORMANCE
Let’s see how the teams fared so far with the help of a scatter plot with Expected Goals (xG) per game plotted on the x-axis and Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) per game on the y-axis.
Let’s also look at the last 10 GWs data to identify the recent trends.
Now that we have seen the team defensive data, let’s look at how the defenders fared attacking wise so far and how the actual performance differs from the expected performance with the help of a scatter plot with Non Penalty Expected Goals (NPxG) plus Expected Assists (xA) per 90 plotted on the x-axis and non penalty goals plus assists per 90 on the y-axis.
Further Read: How to Effectively Use Free Transfers Till The End of The FPL Season
Actual vs Expected Performance of Defenders (All-Season)
Now, let’s look at the last 10 GWs data.
Actual vs Expected Performance of Defenders (Last 10 GWs)
[Total_Soft_Poll id=”45″]
Premium FPL Defenders Analysis
It’s obvious that the trio of Trent (£8.4), Cancelo (£7.0) and James (£6.3) are miles ahead of the budget-friendly options, having posted elite underlying numbers all season. Though Cancelo is a tad behind the other two for attacking threat, he makes up for it in clean sheet potential.
Many of us would think that cutting costs at the back would enable significant upgrades elsewhere. Is that really the case though? Let’s look at the top 15 outfield players (minimum 1000 minutes played so far) for Expected Returns per 90 (xRet p90) which could be defined as
xRet (for defenders) = 6*NPxG + 3*xA + 4*xCS (Expected Clean Sheets)
xRet (for midfielders) = 5*NPxG + 3*xA + 1*xCS
xRet (for forwards) = 4*NPxG + 3*xA
Why, though? Simply because that’s how FPL rewards goals, assists, and clean sheets across different positions.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, Cancelo, James, and Trent make the top 10. It’s also worth noting that most of the players ahead of them have a minutes risk associated. The trio are FPL cheat codes in my opinion and I would look to bring in the one I don’t own rather than going for a budget-friendly pick.
Though Chelsea have almost nothing to play for, the UCL exit could mean less rotation and James’ upside is too big to ignore. Also, Chelsea have two doubles coming up and one of them could potentially fall in GW 34 should they beat Palace in the FA Cup semi-final.
I wouldn’t look at Rudiger (£6.2) as a nailed-on alternative. James has proved on numerous occasions that his attacking threat more than makes up for the occasional 1-pointers off the bench. He has 5.84 points per appearance as opposed to Rudiger’s 4.68.
With a kind run of fixtures coming up and a title race that’s red hot, I would prefer Cancelo over James in case you could only afford to get one. Though Laporte (£5.8) isn’t that far behind Cancelo for xRet p90,it’s worth noting that the latter also has a greater bonus points potential.
Cancelo’s minutes per baseline BPS (Bonus Points System) of 6.3 is better than anyone else in the Man City backline, meaning he is more likely to be among the bonus points whenever they keep a clean sheet. Also, I wouldn’t be surprised if Laporte gets an odd benching given Dias’ return from injury and Ake’s recent upturn in form. That said, Laporte is still a great pick that I would like to have alongside Cancelo, but not instead of him.
Robertson (£7.3) has produced the goods lately, the 0 points vs Man City being his only blank in the last 10 starts with four double-digit hauls in that period. However, it’s worth noting that his 5 assists in that period came from an xA of 1.77. Such an over-performance is unlikely to continue. Don’t get me wrong. He is still a good pick with impressive underlying numbers, but probably a tier below Trent, Cancelo and James. For comparison, Robertson has an xRet p90 of 2.27.
Further Read: Best FPL GW33 Free Hit Drafts to Consider | Free Hit Guide
Budget FPL Defenders Analysis
Let’s also look at the budget friendly options in case you already own the aforementioned trio or choose to avoid them. Though Reguilon (£5.1) has been posting great underlying numbers, minutes could be an issue now that Sessegnon (£4.3) is back fit and the latter seemed to be preferred by Conte before the injury.
Emerson Royal (£4.5) could be an option, being the only recognized right wing-back at Conte’s disposal following Doherty’s injury. The sample size is small, having played only 470 minutes in the last 10 GW, but there has been a significant improvement in his underlying numbers of late. He would be particularly appealing for those managers planning to Free Hit in GW 36 as Spurs have a difficult double (liv ARS) but good fixtures around.
Leicester are the only team that doubles in GW 33, 36, and 37, but their backline has been a rotation minefield as they seem to prioritize the Conference League. Their defensive numbers are terrible as well. I wouldn’t be looking at them unless they get knocked out of the Conference League, in which case Justin (£4.9) could be an option.
Palace have been posting good defensive numbers and could be particularly appealing for managers looking to Bench Boost in GW 37 and those planning to not use their Free Hit there. There is nothing much to separate between Guehi (£4.5), Mitchell (£4.5) and Andersen (£4.6). None of them offer any significant attacking threat.
Both Guehi and Andersen have a minutes per baseline BPS of 6.6 as opposed to Mitchell’s 7.1. Maybe, save the £0.1 and go with Guehi. In case you choose to go with Mitchell, wait for the pressers as he was taken off against Leicester as he “felt something on his calf”.
Newcastle have been posting impressive defensive numbers since the turn of the year. Though the double in GW 33 (LEI CRY) isn’t that good from a defensive standpoint, it’s worth noting that both the opponents play important cup games three days prior and have almost nothing to play for in the league, which could mean rotation against Newcastle.
However, the fixtures turn for the worse after GW 34. I would avoid unless you are looking for a short-term punt or you could afford to bench for the difficult fixtures, in which case Schar (£4.4) could be an option, offering some threat from set-pieces. Leicester, Palace, and Norwich are among the worst five teams in the league for xG Setplay Conceded. This could also bode well for Targett (£4.7) who is on corners from the right.
Despite back-to-back defeats and injuries to Partey and Tierney, I think it’s too early to write off Arsenal assets after consistently posting impressive defensive numbers for some time now, especially with a couple of doubles coming up. I would pick White (£4.6) over any Leicester or Newcastle assets. Though Gabriel (£5.4) offers some set-piece threat, he is a tad too expensive in my opinion. Cedric (£4.2) could be a cheap short-term option for those planning to Bench Boost in GW 33, depending on the updates on Tomiyasu’s injury.
With Shaw out for a couple of weeks, Telles (£5.0) could be a good one-week punt. Though United have been inconsistent at times, the underlying defensive numbers have been good under Rangnick, with only five teams having a better minutes per xGC since he took over. Telles is on a fair share of set-pieces as well. Only Leicester has more xG Setplay Conceded than Norwich all season. Also, no team has conceded more crosses from the right flank.
Matip (£5.0) offers a cheap route into an impressive Liverpool defence and has some threat from set-pieces. We could expect him to start every game until the title race remains hot.
Cash (£5.2) has been posting decent underlying numbers of late. Though Villa blank in GW 33, they have a couple of doubles coming up. Their underlying defensive numbers have also been decent. Cash could be an option if you wanted a replacement only in GW 34.
Burnley’s underlying defensive numbers have been terrible. Also, there is nothing to write home about the attacking threat offered by Tarkowski (£4.9) or Taylor (£4.4). I would avoid them despite the doubles coming up.
Though Walker-Peters (£4.8) and Livramento (£4.3) have been posting good underlying numbers, I would avoid, given Southampton’s terrible performances lately.
Thanks for reading. Good luck for GW 33. Do follow me on Twitter(@EnthusiastFpl)
[kofi]
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Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 33:
AllAboutFPL FPL GW33 Scout Picks | FPLDaggaFC
Best FPL GW33 Free Hit Drafts to Consider | Free Hit Guide
How to Effectively Use Free Transfers Till The End of The FPL Season
FPL Chip Strategy For The Remainder Of The Season | All Scenarios
Impact of FA Cup Results on FPL Gameweek 33 | FPL GW33 Fixtures
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