FPL GW31 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

The final international break of the season is over. We are now heading into the final part of the season in FPL. Eight GWs left for managers to climb up the ladder and satisfy their expectations or exceed them. It is always tough to pick the right players after a break as some of them are injured or tired or at risk of getting rotated. Having said that, we are here to help you guys with all that and more. In this blog, we bring you five of the best differential picks to consider for FPL GW31.

Before going further, Do vote in this week’s FPL GW31 allaboutfpl captaincy poll. The same will be available in the captaincy analysis and metrics blog written by@AK_FPL1. The metrics has a 25/30 record this year. Stay tuned for the GW31 Captaincy metric to see who tops it.

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The results and the captaincy metric blog will be published soon based on the votes.

Note: The TSB mentioned is at the time of writing and is subject to change

FPL GW31 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)

Kai Havertz vs Brentford(H)

Having struggled in the first one and a half years at Chelsea, Kai Havertz has finally seemed to have found his feet. Romelu Lukaku’s poor from in front of goal has proved to be a blessing in disguise for the German. He has 4 goals and an assist in the last 3 matches in the league.

The above graphic clearly indicates an upturn in form in recent weeks. Indeed, it is largely down to a change in position. The shots in the box and shots on target are the ones to look out for. This naturally has brought about more goals. Furthermore, the German has had 8.67 touches in the box per game in the last 4 GWs as opposed to 4.69 per game in the pervious 26 weeks.

It is not just in the league that Havertz has hit form. He also scored in the Champions League for Chelsea, along with scoring the winner in the FIFA Club World Cup final. Adding on to that, he has carried over his club form into the national team as well. The midfielder scored a goal and assisted another during the recently concluded international break.

Chelsea have a very good run of games coming up. Each of their next three games have an FDR rating of 2. Given their near perfect record against teams in the bottom half, now is the time to bank on the blues. Thomas Tuchel’s men have two favorable double gameweeks to be rearranged as well.

Kai Havertz- Key Stats

• Second most transferred player in FPL GW31
• Has as many goals in last three matches as he had in his previous 21
• Best points/90 and second best xG/90 since GW27

Further Read: FPL Chip Strategy For The Remainder Of The Season | All Scenarios

Andy Robertson vs Watford(H)

Andy Robertson is the fourth top-scoring defender in FPL this season, with 142 points. The Scot has more assists than any other player barring Alexander Arnold in the league. Both of them have 11 assists in the league going into FPL GW31.

The Liverpool left back started the season off very pretty slowly to say the least. He had only 1 assist in the first twelve gameweeks. However, since GW13, he not only has the most number of assists, he is also top for points in that time. All this despite missing three games during that period.

In the continuing absence of Trent Alexander Arnold, the onus is on Robertson to be the supplier for Liverpool. Klopp’s men do have some tricky fixtures coming up, however, one player we can always rely on as managers is Robertson. Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 6 of their last 7 matches. It is therefore safe to say that it is feasible to have their defenders regardless of the fixtures. Now to answer the big question- Should managers swap Trent for Robbo? we suggest they should as stats favor Robertson anyways!

Numbers game- Andy Robertson

• Most transferred in player for FPL GW31
• Second highest for big chances created since GW13
• Highest for BPS and bonus points since Gameweek 13

Further Read: Teams & Players to Target in FPL Between GW31-34 | Fixture Analysis

Riyad Mahrez vs Burnely(A)

Riyad Mahrez is a weird player as far as FPL is concerned for us managers. We know he is a points bank, and will outscore all players in his price range through the course of the season. Yet we always seem to pick him at the wrong time. Thanks PEP! Jokes aside, the Algerian is statistically having his best season since joining England. He has 29 goal contributions( 22 G 7 A) across all competitions, his joint best, matching the tally of 29 in the title winning season with Leicester.

Mahrez takes on his favorite opposition in FPL GW31. Against no other team has he scored more than he has against Burnely(8) across all competitions. To add icing on the cake, the Clarets seem to have a weakness down the right flank. Sean Dyche’s men are third worst in the league in terms of % of chances conceded down the right flank since FPL GW27, with 32%. This has coincided with an injury to captain Ben Mee, who usually operates in the left side of their defense. We know that this is where Mahrez operates, he can exploit this evident weakness to pile more misery on the Clarets.

Riyad Mahrez- Numbers game

• Eight goals and three assists in the last ten matches
• Highest points/90 among Manchester City players
• Tops the charts for BPS and Shots in the box among his compatriots
• Five of Man City’s next six fixtures have an FDR rating of 2.
• Manchester City vs Burnley aggregate score in last 9 matches is 32-1

Further Read: FPL GW31 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide

Jadon Sancho vs Leicester(H)

After a sub-par start to his Manchester United career, Jadon Sancho is starting to show signs of the player he was bought to be. The England man has started 6 of the last 7 matches, completing 90 minutes in five of them. This is his best run in the side since joining the club.

Sancho has 3 goals and 4 assists this season. 2 of the 3 goals and 3 of the 4 assists have come in the last 6 matches. As we can see from the above graphic, the stats in the last 6 matches vs those before are of stark contrast. Almost each and every single key stat has gotten better in the past half a dozen games.

Meanwhile, Ralf Rangnick’s men have an amazing run of the games coming up. Each of the next 3 fixtures have an FDR rating of 2, starting with FPL GW31’s games against Leicester. The Foxes are the second worst in the league in terms of % of chances conceded down the left flank. As we can see from the above graphic, that is where Sancho has been operating in recent weeks. Can he make most of Leicester’s Achilles heel?

Pro Tip: The Red Devils have winnable fixtures on the horizon, including a double gameweek. Furthermore, they don’t have any other competition distractions to worry about either. As a result, investing in their assets is a viable option.

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Aaron Cresswell vs Everton(H)

In all fairness, Aaron Cresswell has had a disappointing season by his standards. The fullback has 1 goal and 4 assists this season. He had registered 11 assists in the 20-21 campaign. Having said that, it has been a injury hit season for the West Ham left back.

Since coming back from injury in FPL GW21, Cresswell has played much better and has had 2 assists in the 9 games since. Only Alexander Arnold(6) and Robertson(4) have created more big chances the West Ham man(3) in that time, among defenders. He is also third best for bonus points among the defenders in that time, with 9, behind Robertson(11) and Cancelo(9).

West Ham ‘s next three fixtures are very promising. Each of them have an FDR rating of 2. In fact, five of their next eight games have 2 as FDR. For starters, David Moyes’ men take on Everton in FPL GW31, a team that has struggled on the road all season.

Everton have the worst record away from home this season, picking up a mere 6 points in 13 matches. They have given away 28 goals on the road, the third worst in the league. Meanwhile, the Toffees have an apparent weakness down the left flank, especially since Frank Lampard’s arrival. They have conceded the joint second % of chances down that side since the arrival of their new coach. The West Ham left back would look forward to take advantage of it.

Further Read: FPL GW31 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide

Ultra-Differential pick for FPL GW31:

Rodrigo vs Southampton(H)

Rodrigo hasn’t had the best of times since rejoining the Premier League. He registered 7 goals and 4 assists last season. Thus far this season, he has 5 goals and 2 assists. However, he has found the back of the net in each of the last two matches.

The Spaniard has been a key feature since the arrival of the new manager. The striker is joint top for shots(7) and shots in the box(6) among his compatriots in the four games under the new boss. In the continued absence of Bamford, his place is rest assured and therefore is a good bet for the next two matches at the very least.

Leeds take on Southampton at home in FPL GW31, a team that has a poor record away from home. The Saints have the third-worst defense in the league in terms of goals conceded(31), on the road. They also have given the joint most number of big chances away from home. Rodrigo has all the stats in his favor to continue his good run.

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Thanks for reading the ‘FPL GW31 Differential Picks’ blog. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for regular blogs. Also, follow our 60,000+community on Instagram, Facebook, and Twitter to stay updated on regular Posts and FPL updates. Link to all our FPL Gameweek 31 blogs.

Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 31:

FPL Chip Strategy For The Remainder Of The Season | All Scenarios
Teams & Players to Target in FPL Between GW31-34 | Fixture Analysis
FPL GW31 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide
AllAboutFPL FPL GW31 Scout Picks | FPLDaggaFC
FPL GW31 Transfer Trends And Best Transfer Combinations
Impact of FA Cup Results on FPL Gameweek 33 | FPL GW33 Fixtures

What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 31?

We’ll be covering Player Comparisons, Differential Picks, GW31 free hit and wildcard drafts, captaincy metrics, transfer trend analysis, expected line up, press conference summaries, Buy, hold, sell analysis for FPL GW31, and more. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for all our blogs and subscribe to our free newsletter through the link below. We’ll also be posting regularly about the same on our social media accounts so follow us on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook keep our notification ON.

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