FPL GW17 Differential Picks to Consider | FPL GW17 Preview

FPL GW17 is here in just a few hours of time and in this blog, we quickly look at some of the best differentials to own in the coming weeks that will help you try and boost your rankings over the busy Christmas period.

Before going further, Do vote in this week’s FPL GW17 allaboutfpl captaincy poll. The same will be available in the captaincy analysis and metrics blog written by@AK_FPL1. The metrics has a 15/16 record this year. Last week the metric predicted Salah as the best captaincy candidate and he returned once again in GW16. Stay tuned for the GW17 Captaincy metric to see who tops it. Link to all our FPL Gameweek 17 blogs.

[Total_Soft_Poll id=”26″]

The results and the captaincy metric blog will be published soon based on the votes.

FPL GW17 Differential Picks

Bukayo Saka vs West Ham(H) TSB:8.8%, £6.2

Bukayo Saka has had an up and down season so far. However, in the last few weeks he’s looked like the player he was last season. The Arsenal man has registered a goal and an assist in the last four matches. But he has been unlucky to say the least to have not had more returns.

Now you could argue than Odegaard, who has scored in each of his last three matches and is £0.8 cheaper than his compatriot is a better option. But we believe that in the long run Saka will give way more returns than the Norwegian. Let’s look at some data to back this up.

Stat	Saka	Odegaard
Mins Played	443	393
Shots	9	9
SIB	8	6
Goals	1	3
Assists	1	0
xG	1.62	0.8
xA	1.67	1.09
BC	3	0
BCC	3	1
Points	20	25

As we can see, Odegaard is overperforming his numbers while Saka is underperforming his. Besides, Saka is more certain to keep his place in the starting eleven as compared to the Norwegian who could potentially lose his place to Smith- Rowe if and when he is fit.

Arsenal have a really good run of games coming up in the festive period. In the next 4 matches, both their away games are ranked 2 in the FDR charts and the other two games are at home, where the Gunners normally play well, regardless of the opposition. Therefore, now is a good time to bring back some of their assets, we believe Saka is the safest and the best option.

Key Stat- Bukayo Stats

• Saka has an xG of 3.43 this season, second highest among his compatriots, behind only Aubameyang(6.59)
• The youngster has played more key passes(25), has more assists(4) and has created more big chances(5) than any of his teammates.

Further Read: FPL GW16 Saturday Fixture Wise Review and Players who Caught our Eyes

Phil Foden vs Leeds United(H), TSB: 5.9%, £8.0

Foden has always been a great FPL asset and now that he’s back in full fitness and with lower ownership makes him an amazing shout to be in our teams for FPL GW17.

Man City face Leeds, Newcastle, Leicester, and Brentford in the next four games. Four defences that are not good and going without a Man City attacker especially Foden is a risky business.

Foden’s stats are a league on its own, the young English attacker has an average of 2.36 shots and 1.37 shots on target per 90 this season with an xG of 0.39/90. This number is certainly going to go up when he’s starting regularly. Pep confirming that Gundo is struggling with a back problem only strengthens the case for Foden and even if he’s benched in one of the four games(Leeds, Newcastle, Leicester, and Brentford) the overall upside is too hard to ignore.

Further Read: FPL GW16 Fixture Wise Review | Players that Caught our Eye

Note: We have included couple of Aston Villa players in our differentials article. Aston Villa have a COVID outbreak in their team, but as it stands the fixture vs Norwich should go ahead. Wait till deadline before you make your moves for Villa players so that we get the confirmation. Follow us on Twitter where we will be updating the live updates on this.

Latest update: Villa have 2 unnamed players tested positive but the fixture should go ahead as it stands.

Gerrard: “We were all retested this morning and we’ve got a couple of cases on the playing side and we’ve got a couple of cases on the staff side. They are isolating now so we send our best wishes to them.” Marvelous Nakamba is out of the trip to Norwich on Tuesday. #AVFC

— Ben Dinnery (@BenDinnery) December 13, 2021

Ollie Watkins vs Norwich(A), TSB: 7.4%, £7.6

Suddenly with a dearth of forward options due to COVID, suspensions, lack of form for players like Antonio. Watkins has emerged as a hot prospect with a favorable Christmas fixture run. He is currently the fourth most transferred-in player and the only tough game in the next five games is when they face Chelsea.

Watkins is an FPL player you wouldn’t have to worry a lot after bringing him to your team. He is nailed to start even during the fixture crunch. He has played 90 mins in all games since returning from injury in GW4. Over the last six weeks in spite of facing tough oppositions, he has registered decent numbers.

Watkins numbers in the last six games

Goals: 2
Shots: 7
On target:  2
Big chances: 3
Shots inside the box: 7
xG: 1.20
Key passes: 8
xA: 0.55
FPL points: 24 

Only Pukki, Ronaldo, and Dennis have scored more points amongst forwards in this period. Although Norwich have tightened up well under Dean Smith, The Ex-manager of the villains, I fully expect Villa to win this game comfortably.

Fixtures wise after Norwich, Villa face Burnley in GW18, Leeds in GW20, Brentford in GW21 which are all exciting fixtures for Watkins and Villa. Watkins have decent form and good fixtures makes him the ideal forward for the upcoming few weeks.

Further Read: FPL GW16 Saturday Fixture Wise Review and Players who Caught our Eyes

Matty Cash vs Norwich(A), TSB: 3.7%, £5

Matty Cash has certainly caught our eyes with the Villa fullback showing his full attacking and defensive strength under Gerrard.

Cash has the second most touches in the opposition penalty box(42) amongst defenders this season, his 12 shots inside the box is also the highest amongst fullbacks. His touch map inside the box and shot map directly correlate, which you can see from the below maps. Out of the 17 shots he has taken so far this season, 12 have been from within the box.

Now with Chelsea defensive having a slump in form with just one clean sheet in the last six games, Cash could be a good switch especially if you’re in a double-up. This move will help you save funds and also get a highly attacking defender who is owned by only a few managers. The only downside is that Cash has been on four yellow cards and one more before GW20 will see him miss a game.

Further Read: FPL GW16 Fixture Wise Review | Players that Caught our Eye

Ultra Differential Pick for FPL GW17

Rayan Ait Nouri vs Brighton(A) TSB:0.9%, £4.3

Wolves were extremely unlucky in the last two games to say the least, against Liverpool and Manchester City respectively. They were undone by a late winner against the Reds, from the right side almost instantly after Ait Nouri was subbed off. The defender had played an integral part in keeping Salah and co at bay. Meanwhile, against the champions too, Bruno Lage’s men were hard done by as Pep Guardiola’s men won 1-0 following a controversial penalty. In this game too Wolves’ left wing-back stood out from the rest of his teammates.

Since his emergence into the starting eleven in GW9, Ait Nouri is the sixth highest point scorer in FPL with 40 points, behind only Cancelo(41), Van Dijk(42), Gabriel(43), Rudiger(45) and James(54). In fact that time, Wolves have conceded just 6 goals, the joint second best in the league, behind Spurs, who have given away 5 goals. However, the North London side has played two games lesser than the West Midlands side in that time.

Wolves have the fourth best defense in the league in terms of goals conceded. The inclusion of Ait Nouri into the eleven has played a major role in this. They had conceded 8 goals in first 8 matches. With his presence, they have let in only 4 goals in 8 matches. The other two goals in this time they have given away after he was subbed off.

Now, the young Frenchman is not just a good defender, he is also very good going forward. In fact, despite playing significantly lesser amount of minutes his xA of 0.84 is very close to that of Nelson Semedo, who has 0.91. Furthermore, this xA is the highest among Wolves since Gameweek 9.

Pro Tip: Ait Nouri is the perfect FPL option. He is cheap, he plays for a team that concedes very few goals, plus he’s nailed on to start. So we suggest you bring him in ahead of FPL GW17 and keep him long term.

Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 17:

FPL GW17 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Trends and Captaincy
FPL GW16 Fixture Wise Review | Players that Caught our Eye
FPL GW16 Saturday Fixture Wise Review and Players who Caught our Eyes
What is FPL CUP? What are the rules? How to win the 2021/22 FPL CUP?
2021/22 FPL Chip Strategy: What to do with the Elusive Boosts

We have also made an elaborate guide covering every rule and chip available in FPL for the 2021/22 FPL Season ~ 2021/22 Fantasy Premier League Season Rules, Tips | The Ultimate Guide

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Link to all our FPL Gameweek 17 blogs.

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