Form & Fixtures Analysis Ahead of FPL GW9 | Team and Players to Target

In this FPL GW9 analysis article, let’s deep dive into form and fixtures using some scatter charts and try to solve our transfer dilemmas. All stats were taken from the Fantasy Football Scout Members Area.

Before going further, Do vote in this week’s FPL GW9 allaboutfpl captaincy poll. The same will be available in the captaincy analysis and metrics blog written by @AK_FPL1. The metrics has a 7/8 record this year. Last week the metric predicted Salah as the best captaincy candidate and he returned once again in GW8 with a double-digit haul. Stay tuned for the GW9 Captaincy metric to see who tops it. Link to all our FPL Gameweek 9 blogs.

[Total_Soft_Poll id=”18″]

The results and the captaincy metric blog will be published soon based on the votes.

We won’t be using the popular stat Expected Goal Involvement (xGI) which is Expected Goals (xG) + Expected Assists (xA) because it values goals and assists equally which does not make much sense from an FPL perspective as FPL rewards goals and assists differently, 6, 5 and 4 points respectively for defenders, midfielders and forwards for goals and 3 points for assists. So we would be using Non-Penalty Expected Attacking Points (np xAtt Pts) instead. It could be defined as follows.

np xAtt Pts for defenders = xG*6+xA*3

np xAtt Pts for midfielders = xG*5+xA*3

np xAtt Pts for forwards = xG*4+xA*3

A major caveat with using a small sample size of data is the greater impact of the strength of opponents. In an effort to contextualize the data, I would be using color-coding in all the graphs where the colors of the plots represent the difficulty of fixtures in GW 1-8.

Team performance between FPL GW 1-8

Before diving into player data, let’s see how the teams have fared so far with the help of a scatter chart with xG per game plotted on the x-axis and xG Conceded (xGC) per game on the y-axis. The white dashed lines represent the league average.

FPL Defenders Analysis

We have seen how good (or bad) the defensive numbers are for all teams from the above graph. What about the potential for attacking returns though? Are the fixtures good enough to capitalize on? For that, let’s look at another scatter chart with fixture difficulty ranking for the next 5 GWs (according to FFS Season Ticker) plotted on the x-axis & np xAtt Pts per 90 on the y-axis. * indicates that the particular defender has played less than 270 minutes in total.

Takeaways and best FPL defenders to target going into FPL GW9

Chelsea defence : time to worry?

Chelsea kept 5 clean sheets so far, conceding just 3 goals. However, they had an xGC of 10.48, with 9 teams doing better. This is how their shots conceded map compares to Manchester City’s, who are comfortably the best defence in the league.

It is only fair to say that Chelsea have been fortunate at times and saved by Mendy’s heroics (xG prevented of +3.1) at other times. That said, they kept a league-high 16 clean sheets in 27 games since Tuchel took charge. And the fixtures are there for the taking. So, I wouldn’t worry too much about the underlying numbers when picking a Chelsea defender, but I would be wary of a double-up.

Who to pick, though?

Rudiger (£5.8) offers naildonness, but next to nothing in terms of attacking threat or bonus points. Though Azpilicueta (£6.2) is good for bonus points and has offered some attacking potential lately, it would likely dry up, having to play as CB now that James (£5.5) is back. Christensen’s (£5.1) prospects do not look good now that Chalobah (£4.8) is also in the mix. Alonso (£5.9) seems to have lost his starting place to Chilwell (£5.7). So, it’s between Chilwell and James in my opinion.

Chilwell vs James

Though James’ numbers look better than Chilwell’s, both have played only around 200 minutes and such a small sample size should be weighted lightly. So, let’s also look at last season’s data after Tuchel took charge.

Though it seems that they are equally good for starts, it’s worth noting that many of James’ benchings came during that period of Tuchel’s initial fling with Hudson Odoi. In my opinion, he has far less competition than what Chilwell has on the other flank. Though Chilwell did crush James for attacking numbers last season, I was hoping that the presence of Lukaku could massively improve James’ output, given the kind of crosser he is. However, Lukaku’s injury doesn’t help. What’s also worrying is the substitute appearances and potential 1 pointers, blocking the auto-sub and that tilts my opinion in favor of Chilwell.

As you can see from the team performance chart, Manchester City are in a league of their own for defensive numbers, with an xGC of just 4.78 and keeping 6 clean sheets in the process. In my opinion, Cancelo (£6.3) is the best City defender to pick. He has great attacking potential and seems fairly nailed now, having started all games so far. Also he was subbed on only once in the league last season. So, we may not have to worry about 1 pointers on the occasion of a benching. Dias (£6.2) offers a safer route, being the most nailed in that backline, but with limited attacking threat. Both Cancelo & Dias are good for bonus points. Laporte (£5.5) offers great threat from setpieces. Though Stones (£5.3) is now back in the mix, I think it is Laporte’s place to lose, given the kind of performances he has put in and his importance to City’s build-up. I would avoid Walker (£5.6) since he is not as nailed as Dias & has negligible attacking threat when compared to Cancelo. Also, I would rather double-up on City defense than Chelsea for reasons discussed before.
Trent’s (£7.5) numbers are insane and should be an automatic choice in my opinion.
Shaw (£5.4) is an easy sell given Manchester United’s sloppy form and terrible fixtures and the availability of better options from Man City & Chelsea.
Jansson (£4.7) & Pinnock (£4.6) offer great threat from setpieces in a good looking Brentford defence.
Livramento (£4.3) offers a decent attacking potential and has a kind run of fixtures if you need a cheap bench player on a wildcard. In case of budget constraints, Manquillo (£4.0) has got some attacking threat, but I don’t expect Newcastle to keep a clean sheet anytime soon.

Further Read: Popular Player Comparisons Ahead of FPL GW9 ~ James vs Chilwell

Takeaways and best FPL midfielders to target going into FPL GW9

Let’s look at a scatter chart with fixture difficulty ranking for the next 5 GWs plotted on the x-axis and np xAtt Pts per 90 on the y-axis. * indicates that the particular midfielder has played less than 270 minutes in total.

TAKEAWAYS

There should be no betting against Salah (£12.8) who is in the form of his life. Though Jota (£7.5) is neck to neck with him for per 90 stats, I would sell now that Firmino is back from injury and back among the goals.
Foden (£8.0) has been putting up some good performances and has now started three league games in a row. His ability to play multiple positions (LW, LCM, false 9 and RW) and Torres’ injury should further help with the minutes. He is my pick among Man CIty midfielders. De Bruyne (£11.9) could be a great differential if you wanted to change the team structure with the premium forwards failing to return lately.
Mbeumo (£5.5) has been posting great numbers, playing up front in a good looking Brentford side and has some great fixtures coming up. On some setpieces as well. He has been terribly unlucky to have not scored more, having hit the woodwork SIX times. Yeah, you read that right!
Raphinha’s (£6.6) numbers are good despite Leeds’ sloppy form and he has the fixtures to capitalise on. He and Mbeumo are the best budget midfielders in my opinion.
Son (£10.1) now has 4 goals & 2 assists in 7 appearances and has good underlying numbers. I wouldn’t worry too much about overperformance (2.41 xG) when it’s Son, who is arguably the best finisher in the league. In fact, his underlying numbers are better than last season which was his personal best in terms of FPL points. Kane breaking the duck and hopefully getting back to form would only improve Son’s already good prospects. Though the next 3 fixtures (whu MUN eve) are still scorable, the fixture run from GW 12 is too kind.
Though Gallagher (£5.7) still ranks high up the chart, his numbers seem to have fallen off a cliff lately, with zero big chance involvements in the last 4 games. He has also lost setpiece duties. That said, I would hold with Newcastle up next. In his defence, the fixtures have been hard.
Elyounoussi (£5.5) has posted some insane numbers and the fixtures are kind, but minutes could be a worry now that Stuart Armstrong is back from injury.
I would avoid Gray (£5.8) and Townsend (£5.7) because the underlying numbers aren’t that good and I expect that to drop even further once DCL and Richarlison are back, with them hogging most of the chances. Townsend would also lose penalties to DCL.
Benrahma’s (£6.6) numbers have declined lately, with no big chance involvements in the last 3 games. I would look to sell. That said, it may not be a bad idea to hold for the next 2 fixtures (TOT avl) which looks scorable, if you have other fires to put out.
The underlying numbers don’t look that good for Saka (£6.4) and Smith-Rowe (£5.4) and I am not that convinced of the Arsenal attack. If I were to pick one, I would rather go with the cheaper one, with nothing much to separate them based on stats. Pepe (£7.1) has the numbers, but he is in and out of the team.
I would sell Sarr (£6.3) given Watford’s terrible form and fixtures.
I would also look to sell Greenwood (£7.6) given United’s sloppy form and terrible fixtures and the competition now that Rashford is back.
Normann (£4.5) has posted some decent numbers. He is on some setpieces as well. In case of budget constraints, wildcarders could look at Brownhill (£4.4) for that cheap midfield spot.

Further Read: FPL GW9 Budget Midfielders Analysis | Best Jota And Benrahma Replacements

Takeaways and best FPL forwards to target going into FPL GW9

Let’s look at a scatter chart with fixture difficulty ranking for the next 5 GWs plotted on the x-axis and np xAtt Pts per 90 on the y-axis. * indicates that the particular forward has played less than 270 minutes in total.

TAKEAWAYS

Kane positioning vs Newcastle ~ FPL Forwards to look at ahead of FPL GW9

It was only Newcastle (no offense to the fans, but the defence is abysmal), but it was refreshing to see Kane (£12.1) back among the goals. More importantly he was the farthest player up the pitch (as seen from the average positions above from Sofascore), after dropping annoyingly deep in most of the previous games. A potential candidate to replace Lukaku or Ronaldo, but I like the prospects of Vardy a tad more at the moment.
Firmino (£8.8) tops the chart! However, it should be weighted lightly given the small sample size of 214 minutes played. One to monitor for sure.
Though Ronaldo (£12.5) ranks high up the chart, it is fair to say that his numbers are skewed by the Newcastle and West Ham games, after which the Portuguese has failed to register a big chance involvement in 3 games. Not in any way questioning the calibre of the player, but I don’t trust United at the moment to come good, given the terrible fixtures. I would sell.
Antonio’s (£8.1) numbers are great as expected. The next 2 fixtures (TOT avl) seem very much scorable, after which the fixtures turn for the worse. However it’s worth noting that he had a np xG per 90 of 0.7 and xA per 90 of 0.12 against the traditional big 6 in the previous 2 seasons. Fixture proof?
Sitting atop the PL scoring charts with 7 goals, Vardy (£10.6) deserves more attention from us. It’s worth noting that there has been a massive overperformance on his xG of 3.97 and contrary to popular perception, he hasn’t always been an elite finisher like Son, scoring 125 league goals from an xG of 117.24 since 2014/15 according to Understat. In comparison, Son has 85 goals from 60.4 xG in the same period. However, Vardy had similar hot scoring streaks in the past and we could very well benefit by jumping on the Vardy train.
Wilson (£7.3) was back from injury and back among the goals. His numbers are great but the fixtures don’t inspire much confidence.
Toney (£6.4) could be a great set & forget option – talisman in a good looking team, posting good numbers and is on penalties. Something that he has been lacking is genuine goal threat, but I think that would improve as I expect him to play further up front in the easier fixtures coming up.
It’s a small sample size, but I would be tempted to go with Hwang (£5.6) over Jimenez (£7.6) if I were to get a Wolves forward.
Many of us have been caught out by the benching of Adam Armstrong (£6.0). Though it’s ideal to wait another week to assess the situation I don’t have much hope after Borja (£5.0) scoring and striking up a good partnership with Redmond. Wildcarders could even take a punt on Borja as their first sub in my opinion.

Thanks for reading. Good luck for GW9. May the arrows be green. Follow me on Twitter @enthusiastfpl

Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 9:

FPL GW9 Transfer Trends Analysis | Popular Transfer Combinations
Popular Player Comparisons Ahead of FPL GW9 ~ Kane vs Lukaku vs Vardy, James vs Chilwell, Hwang vs Toney vs Armstrong
FPL GW9 Budget Midfielders Analysis | Best Jota And Benrahma Replacements
FPL GW8 Fixture Wise Stats And Eye Test-Based Review

We have also made an elaborate guide covering every rule and chip available in FPL for the 2021/22 FPL Season ~ 2021/22 Fantasy Premier League Season Rules, Tips | The Ultimate Guide

Link to all our FPL Gameweek 9 blogs.

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