FPL GW2 turned out to be a high-scoring one in spite of popular captaincy options Bruno and Salah both blanking. However, our GW2 captaincy metric had Mahrez at the top, and captaining him would have got you returns. The metric also has had a successful return rate of more than 90% since its debut towards the end of last year. We are back once again to analyze various numbers right from attacking, odds, projection, and team data. So let’s take a look at who’s the Top FPL Gameweek 3 captain picks according to our metric.
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FPL GW 3 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
[Total_Soft_Poll id=”10″]
After a very successful start to the season, it was always expected that Antonio will emerge as the top FPL gameweek 3 captain pick and the community poll confirms the same with 48% of them managers choosing him in our FPL Gameweek 3 captain picks poll. Son comes second in the poll with 15% of the votes. Last week’s captaincy favorites Bruno and Salah have had fewer takers due to tough games and them blanking last week. Interestingly Beharma and Mahrez too have fewer votes even though they are really exciting options.
Underlying Numbers of the Captaincy Candidates
Antonio has had a great two weeks and he tops the underlying numbers with 8 shots inside the box, 3 chances created, one big chances, and an xG of 2.45. Mahrez and Bruno are respectively second and third. Mahrez especially in second with an xG of 1.02 in spite of him not starting against Norwich showing how much chances he has been getting. Son expectedly comes fifth showing how little Nuno’s spurs team creates goal-scoring chances.
Further Read: FPL GW3 Differential Picks To Consider Ahead Of Gameweek 3 Deadline
Underlying Numbers of the Candidates Teams
Now moving on to the underlying numbers of teams from FPL GW1 and GW2. West Ham absolutely bosses this table with 27 shots, 9 big chances, xG of 5.36, and are first on the table. Man City are not far behind in second with an xG of 4.27. Man United are second for shots and third on xG on the list!
Further Read: FPL GW3 Transfer Trends Analysis | Popular Transfer Combinations
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW3
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
Since we do not have the data for newly promoted sides, and even if we did, they would be very unreliable because of the sheer difference in the quality of Championship and that of the Premier League, we have modified our approach for the start of the season.
We will use Drafthound’s Clean Sheet odds and the Odds of Conceding more than 2.5 goals. You can check out the same as well for free on Drafthound along with fixture analysis, predicted analysis, and more.
Arsenal who were outplayed by Chelsea in all departments are ranked with the poorest odds in GW3 meaning you’ll be better off captaining one of the City guys based on odds alone. Although Antonio is fourth don’t be put off by it, Crystal Palace still have a CS odds% of just 17% meaning WHU and Antonio/Berahama are expected to score.
Projections Rank
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
I have then averaged the Two Ranks to churn out the Average Rank Factor, which I have used to determine the Safest yet Explosive option.
Surprisingly Son comes on top of this list with an anytime returns odds of 68% and a points projection of 7.4. Vardy is second on the list and Antonio is third based on projections. Mahrez is fifth which is expected considering the chances of being benched which is a factor considered by the algorithms for predicting odds.
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 3 Analysis- Players To Buy | Hold | Sell Ahead Of FPL GW3
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 3 Captaincy metric analysis
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
Antonio tops the FPL Gameweek 3 Captain metric with a cumulative rank factor of just 9, however, Mahrez is close behind with a CRF of 10. Son and Bruno are there as well. Captaincy is going to be wide open this week and if you want to play it safe just Captain Antonio. Although Mahrez, Son, and Bruno are great options as well.
Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 3:
FPL GW3 Dream Team- Predicting This Week’s Highest Scoring Team
FPL Gameweek 3 Analysis- Players To Buy | Hold | Sell Ahead Of FPL GW3
FPL GW3 Transfer Trends Analysis | Popular Transfer Combinations
FPL GW3 Watchlist – Stand Out Players Who Impressed In GW2
FPL GW3 Differential Picks To Consider Ahead Of Gameweek 3 Deadline
Assessing The Eye Test Of 3 FPL Players Who Caught My Eyes In FPL GW2
How and When do we Fit Lukaku in our FPL Teams | Stats Analysis
FPL GW 2 Fixture Wise Stats Review | Key FPL Stats that Caught our Eye
FPL Gameweek 2 Fixture Wise Review From FPL Perspective | Eye Test
Check out our Rules and Basics Guide, FPL Chip Strategy, FPL Chips, FPL Team reveals, FPL History, team reveals, FPL Tools here.
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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 3?
We’ll be covering Gameweek three eye test analysis and review, fixture analysis, players to watch out for in FPL Gameweek 3, differential picks, captaincy metrics, transfer trend analysis, expected line up, press conference summaries, Buy, hold, sell analysis for FPL gameweek three, our expert panel team reveals and more. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for all our blogs and subscribe to our free newsletter through the link below. We’ll also be posting regularly about the same on our social media accounts so follow us on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook keep our notification ON.
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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