How and When do we Fit Lukaku in our FPL Teams

Romelu Lukaku is back in the Premier League and it means we have another crucial FPL asset to discuss about. Lukaku is priced at 11.5m which clearly means he is classified as a premium player and he cannot be transferred into your team without making sacrifices in other areas and that’s why the timing of getting Lukaku in your FPL team becomes very crucial.

Let me be very honest, you will have to do a very good job to fit in 3 premium players from a bunch of Salah, Bruno Fernandes, Kane, Son, and Lukaku in your team if you do not want to sacrifice on Alexander Arnold or even Robertson; hence how you manage the timing of your big premium players is likely to define your season this year.

Let’s dig into some stats for Lukaku and take a closer look at his performance in the last 7 years with Everton, Manchester United, and Inter Milan in the respective leagues.

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Lukaku stats analysis from previous seasons at Everton, Manchester United and Inter Milan vs Top6, 7th to 14th and Bottom 6

Everton:

Lukaku scored 53 goals at Everton from 334 shots in his last 3 seasons at Everton, his xG during this period was 49.2.
13.2% of those goals were against top 6 sides, 45.3% were against teams who finished 7th 14th and 41.5% were against teams who finished in bottom 6
He took nearly 12 shots to get a goal against top 6 sides but he took less than half of those shots to score against teams who finished 7th and below
His xG numbers are also in line with goals and shots taken by him.

Manchester United:

Only 1 of the 28 goals scored by Lukaku at Man United has come against a top 7 side (because Man United had to be excluded as they finished in the top 6). 75% of the combined xG numbers for his 2 seasons have come against either mid-table teams or teams struggling to survive. On an average, Lukaku needed just 4 shots to score against a bottom-placed team whereas against mid-table teams, he needed less than 3 shots to score, but he took 34 shots for the only goal he scored against a top 7 side.

Inter Milan:

Inter Milan clearly knew how to use Lukaku and his numbers clearly prove that. Lukaku scored 47 goals at Inter and 25% of his goals and xG came against the top 7 sides. Lukaku’s shots/goal number also improved while playing against top Italian teams, he needed just about 5 shots to score against them, the number didn’t change by a lot when he faced mid-table teams, but once again he needed just 3 shots to score against bottom 6 teams.

It is very evident that Lukaku played with a midtable Everton side and even at Man United, the style of play didn’t suit his strengths hence his numbers against top teams have taken a huge toll, but even in such situations, he managed to score freely against the teams outside top 6 or 7.

At Inter, Lukaku looked brilliant throughout, but once again, 75% of his goals came against teams outside the top 7. Lukaku’s already improved numbers against top sides in Inter’s jersey can still improve further at Chelsea but the potential to damage the mid and bottom table sides is something we cannot ignore and needs some serious consideration.

So, when do we get Lukaku in our FPL Teams?

Lukaku has already started firing from his first game and if not for that brilliant save by Leno, he would have given double-digit returns right from his very first game this season.

One of the things that I observed in the Chelsea vs Arsenal game, was Chelsea’s full-backs, they are absolutely buzzing at the moment and there is a good chance that Chelsea’s current setup will allow them to have a more and more attacking output which is likely to impact Lukaku’s BPS.

James got 3 bonus points from the Chelsea vs Arsenal game and he absolutely deserved it, If Alonso and James continue to involve in Chelsea’s goals (which looks very likely at the moment), they are going to give some serious fight to Lukaku for those bonus points. We didn’t see this happening at Man United until Shaw’s recent resurgence and it doesn’t happen a lot at Spurs either, hence we may get to a Liverpool-like situation where fullbacks can nick those bonus points from the forwards, hence please beware of this possibility.

As long as Lukaku is scoring in single digits, those points can still be offset by some of the cheaper forwards in the game like Calvert-Lewin or Ings, but the moment Lukaku starts getting involved in 2-3 goals, he will become a must-have FPL asset.

Chelsea’s fixtures improve massively from GW7, they face Southampton, Brentford, Norwich, Newcastle, and Burnley from GW7 to 11 and if not earlier, this has to be the time to have Lukaku in your team because as the historical data suggests, Lukaku’s output should improve massively from this period.

How can we fit Lukaku in from FPL GW7?

Easiest way to do this, is by offloading Bruno Fernandes after GW6 as Man United will face Everton, Leicester, Liverpool, Spurs, City, Chelsea and Arsenal from GW 7 to 14;
As Liverpool will face Man City and Man United in GW 7 and 9, you can drop Salah from your team, have Jota to cover Liverpool’s points (provided he continues to get regular minutes);
Another riskier option of having Lukaku is by offloading both Bruno and Salah after GW6 and getting Son and Lukaku; Spurs have easier fixtures after GW6 except for GW10. You can also consider Kane if he is still a Spurs player by that time, Spurs clearly have good fixtures around that time but are we ready for starting XIs without Bruno AND Salah??

Whichever option you choose, you will require more than 1 transfer to get Lukaku in, hence keeping your Wildcard till GW7 should be helpful; or at least try to have 2 free transfers saved for that GW unless you are ready to take some hits.

So, if you have decided to get Lukaku in your team, start planning for it well in advance.

Good luck!

Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 3:

FPL GW 2 Fixture Wise Stats Review | Key FPL Stats that Caught our Eye
FPL Gameweek 2 Fixture Wise Review From FPL Perspective | Eye Test

Check out our Rules and Basics Guide, FPL Chip Strategy, FPL Chips, FPL Team reveals, FPL History, team reveals, FPL Tools here.

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