This FPL TGW35 blog is written by @fplchimpparadox. He’s a huge Arsenal fan & obsessed with everything FPL with overall finishes: 1xTop 0.5%| 2xTop 1%| 4xTop 5%| 5xTop 10% and an All-Time Rank of 60k. Follow him on Twitter and check out his articles on allaboutfpl.com here.
It’s here, we have a Triple Gameweek. Officially announced on Wednesday. What transpired during GW34 has made TGW35 even more exciting.
With Man United v Liverpool being postponed last week, the PL have decided to reschedule it for next week giving United a triple game week with fixtures against Aston Villa, Leicester, and Liverpool. Liverpool will now double in GW35 playing against Southampton and Manchester United. Liverpool will also have a game in GW36. Manchester United will blank in GW36.
In this article, we look at the top 3 transfer trends ahead of the TGW. Unsurprisingly, we can see the transfer trends show people targeting players from DGW teams. Southampton, Crystal Palace, Leicester, Everton & Aston Villa all feature in top 5 transfers IN. While Leeds, Man City, West Ham & Liverpool make up the top 5 transfers out.
Even though we have confirmation of the TGW, wait until as close as possible until the deadline before making your transfer.
FPL Transfers Gameweek 35 Deadline – Friday 07th April at 18:30 BST
This Transfer Trends series focuses on analyzing the top 3 transfer combinations within the topmost transferred IN and OUT players.
Top transfers in and out ahead of FPL TGW35
DGW players dominate the top 5 transfers in this week. 102k managers have bought James Ward-Prowse – the most transferred in player so far. 88k managers have bought Wilf Zaha, while 79k have bought Iheanacho – the most transferred in FWD so far.
Calvert-Lewin is just behind Iheanacho in the list. 78k managers have bought the Everton man ahead of DGW35. Ollie Watkins takes the final spot in the top 5, with 65k buys so far.
Bamford is the leading man on the chopping block this week. 149k managers have sold the Leeds forward so far. Gündogan comes in 2nd on the list. 87k managers have sold him, with a further 63k selling Cresswell. John Stones features for a 2nd week, 70k managers have sold him so far.
Diogo Jota also features in the top 5 transfers out this week. 72k managers have sold him so far, but this was before confirmation of the Liverpool DGW35.
The 3 transfer combinations we’re focusing on are; Gündogan to Ward-Prowse, Bamford to Calvert Lewin, and Jota to Zaha.
Combination 1: Gündogan To Ward-Prowse
First up, the combination that features the most transferred in player, James Ward-Prowse. The most transferred in player, meets the 2nd most transferred out. 57.3% of Gündogan sellers have bought Ward-Prowse this week.
Over the last 6 weeks, Gündogan has only played 123mins. Man City blanked in GW29 & 33. Gündogan completed 90mins once in the 4 matches he could have played between GW29-34, returning 2points. It makes sense to sell him.
Like Man City, Southampton blanked in GW29 & 33. Ward-Prowse played 90mins in all 4 matches in this time, returning 16points. The 44th highest scoring MID in this timeframe.
Looking at the last 3 weeks, is different though. Ward-Prowse is the 9th highest scoring MID between GW32-34 with 15points. An assist against Spurs and a goal against Leicester, both from set pieces (corner and penalty) contributed to the points.
It’s this reliability on set-pieces that makes him an attractive transfer. In DGW35 Southampton are away to Liverpool and home to Crystal Palace. In their last 4 matches, Liverpool have conceded in their last 3. Of their 2 home matches, they conceded in both, versus Aston Villa & Newcastle. They’ve also conceded the 2nd most Big Chances (9) in their last 3 games (GW31-33).
Crystal Palace don’t fare much better of late. In the last 5 weeks, they rank 1st for Big Chances Conceded (15). They also rank joint 2nd for shots conceded in the box. No clean sheets in their last 4 matches and 9 goals conceded in this time show their defensive weakness.
Further Read: Buy, Hold, Sell Player Analysis Ahead of FPL GW35
Combination 2: Bamford To Calvert-Lewin
The second combination we’re focusing on is Bamford to Calvert-Lewin. The transfer trends show 56% of Calvert-Lewin buyers have moved from Bamford. It’s easy to see why Bamford is the most sold player this week. In the last 6 weeks, Bamford has only scored 1 goal. In the same period, Calvert-Lewin also scored 1 goal, playing 50% less games.
Looking at the stats below, we can see Calvert-Lewin’s general goal threat v Bamford has been better in this period. He outperformed Bamford in a series of metrics based on stats per game started. The standout stats being Big Chances (1.33 v 0.83), Shots on Target (1.33 v0.50) and xG (0.60 v 0.34).
Who do Everton face in TGW35?
Everton face West Ham in their first match of DGW35. West Ham are pushing for a Top 4 finish, but have shown defensive issues in the last 6 weeks. 12 goals conceded the most by any side between GW29-34.
In the same time frame, West Ham rank 4th for Shots Conceded (92) and 3rd Shots Conceded on Target (34). They also rank 3rd for Shots from Headers Conceded (15).
It’s this last stat that will excite Calvert-Lewin buyers. West Ham are showing they are weak against headers, and Calvert-Lewin has scored the most headed goals this season (7).
Everton’s second match of TGW35 is away to Aston Villa. Villa are currently on a streak of 7matches without a clean sheet, dating back to GW27. In the last 6 weeks, Villa are 5th for Shots Conceded (86), 6th for Shots on Target Conceded (30) and 4th for Big Chances Conceded (14).
Calvert-Lewin missed GW31 & 32 through injury. Since his return in GW33, he’s again shown his goal threat. He is 5th for Big Chances (2) for FWDs and joint 1st for Headed Attempts (3).
Further Read: Analyzing The 4 Teams Doubling in FPL DGW35 and Having a Fixture in BGW36
Combination 3: Jota to Zaha
The final combination we’re looking at is Jota to Zaha. So far we can see that 36.3% of Jota sellers have moved to the Crystal Palace talisman, Wilf Zaha.
This move is an interesting one. It made sense to make the move if Liverpool didn’t get a DGW35, but now that we have, Jota’s sellers might kick themselves.
In the last 6 weeks, Jota has scored 2 goals (from 4 matches played), where Zaha has scored once from the same amount of matches. What about general play and goal threat in this period?
As you can see from the comparison above, Jota outperformed Zaha in nearly every metric. Looking at key metrics, you can see Jota clearly outperformed Zaha – Big Chances (4v1), Shots in Box (14v3), Shots on Target (7v2), Shots (16v4) and Touches in Box (32v16).
This transfer trend is based off Zaha having a double in DGW35. On paper, Crystal Palace have the best double, so this is why Zaha looks like an attractive transfer.
Who do Crystal Palace face in TGW35?
In their first match, Palace are away to Sheffield United. Sheffield United are already relegated, after losing to Wolves in GW32. In the 4 weeks leading up to and including that match (GW29-32), their defensive record wasn’t the worst.
They ranked 10th for Shots Conceded (47), 9th Shots in Box Conceded (30), 8th for Shots on Target Conceded (18) and 11th for Big Chances Conceded (7).
In the two matches since relegation (GW33&34), their defensive performance has dropped. Ranked 3rd for Shots Conceded (37), 4th Shots in Box Conceded (22), 2nd for Shots on Target Conceded (15) and 2nd for Big Chances Conceded (6).
Crystal Palace travel to Southampton for their 2nd match of DGW35. Southampton are currently on a run of 17 games without a clean sheet – the worst in the league, finding themselves 3places above the drop zone.
In this timeframe (GW17-34), Southampton are 2nd for Big Chances Conceded (46) – only Sheffield United are ahead of them (50).
In the same period, Southampton find themselves top for Goals Conceded (40), with Sheffield United coming in 2nd (33). Although Sheffield United are in 2nd place, and played 1 game extra, Southampton have still conceded 7 more goals.
Given the defensive issues that both Sheffield United and Southampton have faced this season, you can see why people are making the Jota to Zaha move.
Now that we have confirmation that Liverpool will double in TGW35, people may slow down on this combination, but it could still prove to be a wise move.
l look forward to hearing your thoughts and discussing your transfers in the lead up to the Gameweek 35 deadline at 18:30 BST on Friday 7th May.
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Further Read: FPL DGW 35 – Chip Strategy, Tips, and Wildcard Team Reveal | FPLNima
FPL TGW35 Captaincy poll
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL TGW35:
Analyzing The 4 Teams Doubling in FPL DGW35 and Having a Fixture in BGW36
Best Possible Free Hit Draft, Combination & Team For FPL GW35
FPL DGW 35 – Chip Strategy, Tips, and Wildcard Team Reveal | FPLNima
Buy, Hold, Sell Player Analysis Ahead of FPL GW35
FPL Tools Overview, Comparison, and Feature Analysis
All that you need to know about FPL cup
History Of Fantasy Football And Origin Of FPL
FPL History: Highest Scoring FPL Players Each Year Since The First FPL Season in 2002/03
FPL Tools guide for managers: Free and Paid
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