FPL DGW32 – Analyzing Spurs Assets Ahead of the Double Gameweek

This FPL GW32 Spurs special blog is written by FPL Architect. He is an FPL writer now writing weekly threads on Twitter and weekly articles here on allaboutfpl.com. He likes to combine eye tests and stats when making FPL decisions. He is also currently ranked 11,945 and is poised for a strong finish. Do give him a follow on Twitter and check out all of his blogs here.

FPL GW32 is another DGW, this time for Spurs. In this article, I will therefore analyze what expectations we can have on Spurs this week, and what players are the best to own.

The FPL DGW32 article will cover:

• Fixtures
• Offence
• Defence
• Differential

DGW32 Fixtures for spurs

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Spurs’s fixtures this week look good on paper, as they face Everton (A) and Southampton (H). Below you can see some stats for Everton showed in average per game over the last six games.

Goals: 0.67

xG: 1.27

On target attempts: 2.83

Goals conceded: 0.83

xGC: 1.13

On target shots conceded: 4.50

So, what can we conclude by looking at these stats? We can clearly see that a clean sheet for Spurs is not going to be highly likely, if Everton can manage to perform closer to their xG. If Everton keep wasting chances a clean sheet for Spurs is not impossible at all but if they start delivering as expected, we must lower our expectations on Spurs defenders.

If Everton have underperformed offensively their defense has rather overperformed, considering the difference between xGC and actual goals conceded. However, we do know that Harry Kane and Heung Min-Son don’t need great chances to score right now, for example, Son has scored 14 times this season from an xG of 9.35, so we can expect delivery from the duo against any defense.

Now let’s do the same with Southampton:

Goals: 1.33

xG: 1.60

On target attempts: 5.17

Goals conceded: 2.17

xGC: 1.77

On target shots conceded: 5.00

Southampton’s attack has also underperformed lately although they have still managed good numbers. This is a game with even lower clean sheet chances for Spurs, considering the more impressive attacking stats of Southampton. They average over 5 shots on target per game and it may be hard for Hugo Lloris in the Tottenham goal to keep all of them out.

Offensive wise I expect a lot from Spurs in this game. Southampton have conceded over 2 goals per game recently and with Kane and Son’s earlier mentioned ability of overperforming their xG, this game has goals in it.

One small warning though. The game against Southampton is only 4 days before the cup final against Manchester City and we can therefore expect rotation from José Mourinho. However, I doubt that key players as Kane and Son will be rested given their importance for the team. Yet it might affect the overall performance of Spurs, so watch out on that one.

Spurs attack analysis ahead of FPL DGW32

To analyze the Spurs attack I have looked at some stats, showed in averaged per game over the last six games.

Goals: 1.83

xG: 1.60

Attempts: 9.83

Mins/attempt on target: 25.7

As we can see the Spurs stats are good, but not extremely good. For example, there is a big difference in xG compared to Manchester City (1.60 vs 2.39) but that doesn’t mean that we will not see goals from Tottenham.

The most attractive part of the Spurs offense for me is the level of finishing ability from Kane and Son. They have overperformed their xG the entire season, which is sustainable given how good they are when it’s time to shoot. The chances they get don’t have to be great, they are still able to score from many of them.

Looking at what options we find in the offensive parts of Spurs, two are way better than the others. Of course, I’m talking about Harry Kane and Heung Min-Son, who have dominated the league this year when playing together. Harry Kane has 32 goal involvements this season, Son 23, which makes them extremely good FPL options. I would strongly recommend owning both for the DGW and preferably captain one of them too.

Regarding captaincy, I hold Harry Kane as the better pick, mainly because he is on penalties. I believe he will be the most captained player this week but for players in need of making up lost ground, Son is a good differential captain. If you still have your Triple Captain-chip left, this is a particularly good opportunity to play it.

Spurs Defense analysis ahead of DGW32:

To analyze the Spurs defence I have looked at some stats, showed in averaged per game over the last six games.

Goals conceded: 1.33

xGC: 1.52

Shots conceded: 11.83

Mins/shot on target conceded:  25.7.

These stats are not that good considering the level we expect Spurs to be at, so I’d like to start this segment with pointing out that investing in Spurs defenders is a gamble, and I’m not convinced it will pay off.

Tottenham face Everton and Southampton, as mentioned earlier, which means that they will face strikers as Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Danny Ings, players you can’t afford to give a big number of chances. Spurs haven only kept one clean sheet in their last 5 games (all competitions), a number that doesn’t impress many.

I understand that bringing in Spurs defender can be tempting given their DGW, but I really want to make you aware of the fact that you shouldn’t have too high expectations. Buying a defender with a free transfer could pay off, but I would not advice making a move for a hit.

However, if you are going to buy a Spurs defender Sergio Reguilon is the best choice. He is the most offensive defender in the team and could provide attacking returns (he has managed 4 assists this season) even if you lose the clean sheet.

Differential pick from spurs for FPL GW32

I have a differential recommendation for people bringing in Spurs players, Lucas Moura. The Brazilian has been involved in 7 goals since GW23, which is a good number considering the low price (£6.6m) and ownership (2.1%) of Lucas Moura.

Here are some more stats regarding Moura showed in average per game over the last 6 games.

xG + xA: 0.24

Goal involvement %: 30%

Goal attempts in box: 0.33

Big chances created: 0.33

Spurs will obviously score goals this week and if it’s not only Kane and Son involved, it’s likely to be Lucas Moura. He is therefore a good differential punt if you are chasing, mainly as an alternative to Son. His lower price presents an opportunity to afford more premium players in other positions too.

This was everything from my Spurs analysis article, I hope you found it interesting and that it helped you decide on a few players! here is a link to my Twitter account @FPL_Architect.

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW32:

History Of Fantasy Football And Origin Of FPL
FPL History: Highest Scoring FPL Players Each Year Since The First FPL Season in 2002/03
FPL Tools guide for managers: Free and Paid

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW32 Deadline?

Our team of good writers are working relentlessly as we strive to deliver good FPL good content. Stay tuned for our, Differential picks(10% TSB), Our star writer Nima’s team reveal, strategy and tips, FPL GW32 Captaincy analysis, and Matchups blogs. All the blogs should be out soon ahead of an early Friday night FPL GW32 Deadline.

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