FPL GW30 Differential picks to consider ahead of FPL GW30 Deadline

After two weeks of boredom, FPL is back again, as we head into the business end of the 2020/21 season. A lot of managers are using their wildcard right now or planning to use it in next week or two. Now is the time to break away from the template and start looking at some differential options for your teams to make a move in your leagues. Here is a look at the best differential picks for this week and beyond, ahead of FPL GW30 deadline.

Note: The ownership and price given is at the time of writing, and is subject to change thereafter.

FPL GW30 Differential Picks:

Marcos Alonso vs West Brom(H) £5.7, TSB: 2.5%

Alonso has been a cult hero in FPL, so to speak. In the past few seasons, very few defenders produced attacking returns as frequently as the Spaniard did for us FPL managers. This season up and till now has largely been underwhelming for the Chelsea defender. However, from FPL GW30 onwards, we feel that the Alonso of old is going to return.

Having gone out of favor under the previous regime, Alonso has once again established himself as a regular in the team since the arrival of Thomas Tuchel. The German’s decision to play with wingbacks has meant that Alonso has got an opportunity to play in his best position, and that has been vindicated.

Since GW21 onwards, when Alonso made a return to the eleven, he has had 13 shots on goal, 10 of them inside the box. No defender has had a better tally in that time. This is in spite of him starting only two thirds of the matches. Furthermore, the Spaniard has created 3 big chances, only Trent, Lowton and Creswell have created more. It is safe to say that a massive haul is around the corner!

Will Alonso start regularly?

One of the problems in picking Alonso is to know whether or not he is going to start. It has been crystal clear as to which games in which Tuchel prefers to play the Spaniard over Chilwell. Tuchel prefers the latter against opposition that has fast and tricky wingers, such as Leeds, Manchester United and Liverpool.

The next 5 fixtures for Chelsea are against teams that lack such wingers and also they are teams that generally sit back, barring Brighton. In between times, Chelsea face Porto twice and Manchester City in the FA Cup, games in which Chilwell is likely to feature based on the evidence we have. So, for the next 5 GWs Marcos Alonso is a primed asset to have in FPL.

Fixtures: WBA(H), CRY(A), BHA(H), WHU(A), FUL(H)

Further Read: Chelsea’s Transformation Under Tuchel and the FPL assets to consider for the run-in

Riyad Mahrez vs Leicester(A) £8.1, TSB: 7.4%

Riyad Mahrez goes into FPL GW30 as the most in form player in the league. Indeed, since GW24, no player has scored more points than Mahrez(54). In that time, the Algerian has 4 goals and 4 assists, including a massive 18 point haul the last time he stepped on to the field, against Southampton.

While some of the other Manchester City players had to play 3 games during the international break, Mahrez just had one game, in which he scored too. This probably means the Algerian is rather safe to be in the starting eleven, although second guessing Pep is rather challenging.

In FPL GW30, Mahrez goes up against his former employers, Leicester City. The 30-year old has enjoyed facing the foxes since moving on. He has been involved in 4 goals in his last 3 matches against Brendan Rodgers’ men, including a goal and an assist in this season’s fixture at the Etihad.

Further Read: Teams and Players to Consider for the Final stretch of FPL Season | FPL GW31 ~ GW38

Luke Ayling vs Sheffield United(H) £4.4, TSB: 2.6%

It will be an understatement if we were to say that Luke Ayling has been unlucky in FPL so far this season. In fact, a lot of his stats mirror that of Stuart Dallas, only for Ayling to have 0 goals and 0 assists, while his compatriot has 5 goals and 3 assists.

Player	SIB	Shots on target	Big chances	xG	Touches(Box)	BCC	xA	xPts	Points
Dallas	12	12	4	3.39	45	3	2.55	138	122
Ayling	12	4	1	1.35	56	3	2.51	126	72

In the championship last season, Ayling did register 4 goals and 4 assists. So, he is more than capable in front of goal. Before the international break, Ayling did find the back of the net with a beautiful header, which was chalked off because Tyler Roberts was offside by a smidgen. It is about time his luck changes!

In FPL GW30, Leeds take on Sheffield United, a team that has scored the fewest amount of goals in the league. This, coupled with the improving form of Leeds defensively means that Ayling, at the very least is likely to keep a clean sheet.

One other point to note is the fact that both Koch and Llorente are fully fit, that would mean that Ayling doesn’t have to fill in at CB anymore.

Further Read: FPL GW30 Attacking and Defensive Matchups | FPL Fanatix

Diogo Jota vs Arsenal(A) £6.7, TSB: 4.9%

In what has been a very difficult season in the league for Liverpool, Diogo Jota has been one shining light for the champions. Prior to his injury, Jota had 5 goals in 8 PL matches, and was a prominent feature in a lot of FPL squads.

Since his return from injury Jota has hit the ground running once more. He scored the winning goal in Liverpool’s last league game, against Wolves. During the international break too, the Liverpool man has been on fire. He scored 3 goals in 2 matches for Portugal.

Amidst all the struggles Liverpool have had in recent times, they have put together a run of results away from home. Klopp’s men have won 4 of the last 5 away league games, scoring 9 goals in the process. They have also won two games (each by 2-0) in the champions league away from home in that time. It is fair that Jota’s chances of a haul in FPL GW30 is enhanced more as the game is at the Emirates.

Last time out: The reverse fixture between Arsenal and Liverpool marked Jota’s debut for the Merseyside club. He came off the bench and scored to help seal a 3-1 win for the champions.

Further Read: The best Fixtures to target for most attacking points in FPL GW30

Kai Havertz vs West Brom(H) £8.2, TSB: 2.8%

Another Chelsea player who seems to have benefited from Thomas Tuchel’s arrival is Kai Havertz. The German has finally found himself a position that suits him. The false nine/ Front man in which he has played in the last few matches has enabled him to show glimpses of what he can do in front of goal.

GW27 was the first time in which Havertz was deployed as a striker. Even though he has only played two league games in that position so far, all the stats clearly shows that attacking returns are not very far away. The German continued his good form in the international break as he registered 1 goal and 1 assist in 3 matches for his country.

Stats per 90	Shots	Shots on target	Big chances	xG	Touches(Box)	SIB	xA	A	Points
GW1 – GW26	1	0.31	0.23	0.13	2.62	0.77	0.06	0.31	3.46
GW27- GW29	3	2	0.50	0.52	6	3	0.15	1	6

The key things to note are the increase in number of touches in the box and the number of shots in the box. This clearly suggests that he is getting himself in better positions in front of goal. Tuchel suggested that he likes Havertz in high positions. It is likely that the German will continue to play in this position, especially considering the lack of form and fitness of Abraham.

Further Read: Best Three FPL GW 30 One Week Punts to Consider

Ultra-Differential Pick for FPL GW30(<1% TSB):

Chris Wood vs Southampton(A) £6.2, TSB: 0.9%

Throughout his career in the Premier League with Burnley, Chris Wood has been a reliable goal scorer. He has notched up double figures in each of the previous 3 seasons, including 14 goals in 2019/20 season. However, this season Wood has rather underperformed.

Since his return from injury, however, Wood has looked more of his old self, and so have Burnely as a team. In the last three matches Burnley have got 5 points against difficult opposition( Leicester- D, Arsenal-D, Everton-W). Wood has scored 2 goals in those matches.

Wood has established a reputation as one of these streak players. Burnely’s fixtures starting from FPL GW30 till the end of the season is largely favorable, the New Zealander may well go one of those hot runs again!

Fixtures: SOU(A), NEW(H), MUN(A), WOL(A), WHU(H), FUL(A), LEE(H)

Further Read: FPL GW30 Captaincy Analysis, Metrics & Top Picks | AK FPL

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW30:

FPL GW30 Captaincy Analysis, Metrics & Top Picks | AK FPL
FPL GW30 Attacking and Defensive Matchups | FPL Fanatix
The best Fixtures to target for most attacking points in FPL GW30
Best Three FPL GW 30 One Week Punts to Consider
Chelsea’s Transformation Under Tuchel and the FPL assets to consider for the run-in
Teams and Players to Consider for the Final stretch of FPL Season | FPL GW31 ~ GW38
History Of Fantasy Football And Origin Of FPL
FPL History: Highest Scoring FPL Players Each Year Since The First FPL Season in 2002/03
FPL Tools guide for managers: Free and Paid

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW 30 Deadline?

Our team of good writers are working relentlessly as we strive to deliver good FPL good content. Stay tuned for our, Man City FPL assets analysis, Our star writer Nima’s team reveal, and Matchups blogs. All the blogs should be out soon ahead of a Saturday morning FPL GW 30 Deadline.

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