FPL DGW26 Matchups & Fixture Analysis | The Why of #FPLMariner’s Metrics + The Little Prince Pick of the Week

This blog is written by Gabriel also known as FPLLens on Twitter. Do drop him a follow on Twitter and stay tuned for his matchups blogs as he’s now a resident writer here at allaboutfpl.com.
Welcome to FPL DGW26 Matchups; my weekly think piece where I use my coaching lens to explore matchups in the #PL to gain some insight to navigate our FPL decisions.

Please check this, and so many other resources out at www.allaboutfpl.com and follow@allaboutfpl. He has been so generous with his platform and has now signed superstar @FPLNima as an editor!

This week FPL Matchups was an unplanned collaborative task. There are appearances from @FPLMariner of course with his metrics, @JTSnelling with Kane insight, @JordievdLaan, who writes for the fantastic @FPLConnect blog, with eye-opening thoughts on Son, and @FPLFoxy. You won’t regret following any of them.

This week I will be looking at the most desirable assets for the DGW according to @FPLMariner’s metrics. These are the statistical tools I use most in FPL. A lot of hard work really paying off for everyone’s benefit. To give you an idea of the success of his metrics, his captain metric has a 76% hit rate and is averaging 16 points/wk. It is projected to finish with 605 points this season. Compare to your own captain picks at your own risk. I will also be using his FDR specified for attack because defenders got spanked in the community poll.

My goal with this week’s DGW26 article is to identify potential tactical reasons the metrics like these players, and hopefully see if any of them stand out above others from a coaching perspective. 

These articles, and Mariner’s metrics, are explained and discussed in detail on #NetThatHaul. Please find us and join us here for our live shows: NET THAT HAUL with FPLMariner – YouTube. 

The starting point then this week is much different than weeks past. Rather than begin with what my eyes have been absorbing in recent weeks, we will begin with the stats. Mariner’s metrics are a snapshot of the previous 6 GWs, but I have taken the liberty of using different periods of time depending on team situations. 

Players put under the lens ahead of FPL DGW26

1. Bruno Fernandes vs Chelsea(A), Crystal Palace(A)
2. Gundogan/ Kevin De Bruyne vs West Ham United(H), Wolves(H)
3. Harry Kane vs Burnley(H), Fulham(A)
4. Jamie Vardy / Harvey Barnes vs Arsenal(H), Burnley(A)
5. Dominic Calvert Lewin / Le Petit Prince vs Southampton(H), WBA(A)

Bruno Fernandes vs Chelsea(A), Crystal Palace(A)

Bruno tops Mariner’s captaincy metric and with good reason. He consistently tops haul %, and never blanks for long. His xGI in the last 4GWs is 4.44 (4^th), he’s created 5 big chances (1^st), and has 3 assists (2^nd) and 4 goals (2^nd) during that time. 

Looking at Bruno’s matchup through the FDR, I’m surprised the CHE fixture is only slightly on the difficult side, keeping in mind 0.0 is a neutral matchup. This is surprising because CHE have the lowest xG (2.41) in the last 4 GWs; remember the metric looks at the last 6 GWs.

Despite displaying good stats against some of less than fearful attacks of TOT, SHU, NEW, & SOU, CHE still conceded in 2 of those 4 matches, so there may be a decent probability of a return in this match.

Bruno’s second match is against CRY and it is very favorable indeed, and Mariner’s metric has it as the most favorable attacking fixture of the GW. CRY have an xGC of 7.8 over the past 4 GWs (19^th).

Over the last 4 GWs Bruno has amassed a whopping 45 points. Prior to this run, Bruno had scored 15 points in his previous 5 matches. The one thing I can pinpoint that happened in that time is that Pogba got injured.

Pogba has not started the last 4 matches while he recovers from a thigh injury. We have looked at this Pogba/Bruno correlation before and identified some problems with the space and movement of the two players.

The touch heat map shows us that Bruno is less involved in the middle of the field when Pogba plays. That area lights up when Pogba is not playing. Bruno plays much more on the periphery when Pogba is playing to not crowd the space from where Pogba likes to drive with the ball or send through-balls from deep.

Since Bruno does not have the freedom to come across the middle as much, he mostly stays on the left. This observation begs the question what Bruno’s intention is when coming across the field. The following maps are a chances created heat map and xG shots map. They give some interesting insight into Bruno’s mind.

Bruno seems to create chances from the right side of central midfield, while his shots are taken from the center and left of central midfield. Bruno enjoys the freedom in midfield to move to the right side to create chances, and the left side to take chances.

While the location of each is similar with and without Pogba, the frequency certainly decreases when Pogba plays. With Pogba out, CHE seemingly not as difficult a matchup as we thought, and CRY among the easiest matchups of the GW, Bruno is a compelling captain selection.

Gundogan/ Kevin De Bruyne vs West Ham United(H), Wolves(H)

Gundogan was a very close 2^nd in Mariner’s captaincy metric with a score of 90. KDB of course does not make it on there due to lack of playing time. Mariner’s metric tells us that both WHU and WOL are slightly favorable matchups for MCI with ratings of 0.8 and 1.1 respectively.

It makes me wonder then, why WOL have been a difficult team for MCI recently. Watching the previous match, it seemed like KDB was a key gear in the machinery of the MCI midfield, but the stats tell a tale of minimal involvement given his potential and price. The stats were also down for Gundogan who seemed to have a fine game and seemed a threat.

The images below show balls that should have been played to Gundogan for an easy goal. These plays register no attacking stats for the midfielder despite demonstrating high goal threat.

While it was only one game back, I think we got an idea of how this midfield is going to be deployed. In GW 21, I wrote about how Gundo had been taking a more advanced position on the left side of midfield as indicated by the red box in the heat map.

The change in the last game was that KDB did not come back to the right side of midfield. The heat maps comparing Gundo and KDB last match shows KDB in sky blue and Gundo in black. KDB has parked himself in front of Gundo nudging Gundo a little deeper.

Watching the matches, we notice that Gundo does drop to link play, but he also gets in the box and becomes a goal threat. The stats last game do not show this goal threat, but the heat map hints at it. The touch heat maps show that he now makes runs through the middle without the ball and receives them again around the top of the box.

If we bring Mahrez and Cancelo into this picture, we see Pep’s midfield puzzle begin to take shape. Bilva is not included here because he plays very wide. I have kept KDB and Gundo colors and added Cancelo and Mahrez in red and green.

MCI first matchup, WHU presents as somewhat positive in the metric. They are a balanced defense with no immediately apparent weakness. I did notice, however, that they had conceded the 6^th most SIB in the last 4 (32). To surrender 8 SIB per game to a team like MCI who have the 4^th most SIB in the last 4, averaging over 9 SIB per match.

Over that time, Gundogan leads the team with 9 SIB. Could be a sneaky good matchup for him. Sterling could also see some action in that top corner of the box where WHU conceded chances. The metric certainly likes him with a rating of 87.

When facing an improved WOL side surely uplifted by the sight of Raul back on the training pitch, MCI may look to Mahrez and Bilva to create something against a side that has conceded the 5^th most chances from the left in the last 4 (14).

Despite not having the ideal matchup for Gundogan against WOL, the biggest risk with him is rotation after he played 90 minutes in the #UCL. The midfield rotational responsibilities is also something to monitor. KDB will get involved in a more attacking role, but how and at whose expense (if anyone’s) remains to be seen.

Harry Kane vs Burnley(H), Fulham(A)

Kane is a fascinating case because he is the most popular community pick.

He is also the lowest-ranked in the metric with a score of 79. This matches the FDR as an out-of-form TOT attack faces a deep BUR block with an FDR of -1.7 and a vastly improved FUL side with an FDR of -2.0. Not good initial signs for Kane despite his community popularity. 

Plowing through Spurs attacking stats is quite depressing. Over the last 4 GWs, they have achieved 3.5 xG (19^th), 1.99 xA (17^th), 23 SIB (16^th), & 5 BC (15^th). So why is Kane such a popular pick this GW? I believe it is because the eye test shows him involved in what little attack Spurs have, and Kane has a history of punishing smaller teams. Despite the team stats, Kane has a respectable 9 SIB in the last 4, unfortunately, however, only 4 of those have been on target. 

What I see lacking more than anything from Spurs is penetration. They seem content to break the midfield line, but not penetrate the back line or try to destabilize them. Kane and Son’s touch heat map show a concerning lack of touches in the box, specifically close to the 6-yard box.

Kane will face BUR first. BUR have been picked apart by possession teams, but Spurs will struggle against their deep block. BUR have only conceded 2 BC in the past 4 matches. They are famous for conceding chances, just not big chances. They also have the 3^rd lowest xG of 3.18 during that time. Spurs struggled to get a 1-0 win at Turf Moor earlier this season, and form is not in their favor this time around. This feels like a potentially frustrating game for Spurs.

FUL present a different challenge. Their defensive stats over the last 4 are better than BUR. They have conceded a league low 8 SOT in the last 4 GWS. Their xGC is 5^th best at 3.23 and what’s worrying for Kane is that FUL have only conceded 4 chances from the middle of the field, which is 2^nd best along with MCI and CHE. 

Kane is on a team in poor form, playing against teams in great defensive form. The answer to his popularity comes to me thanks to @JTSnelling. 

I guess these are the reasons to own Kane. To captain, or triple captain however, one would like at least one of form, fixtures, stats, or eye test to be working in their favor.

Kane and Spurs in general has been a very popular topic of conversation this week in the community. So much so that I had more help with the Spurs analysis from someone whom I met thanks to some good disagreements on Twitter. I am very grateful to @JordievdLaan for reaching out to me w/ this analysis on Son, and how that affects Kane. He has a keen mind for the game and is well worth a follow.

Jordie suggested I look at the passes received, and the shots heat maps for Son, comparing GWs 1-17 and 18-25. Let’s take a walk through Jordie’s thought process here.

Jordie notes that Son was more of a goal threat earlier this season because he would receive the ball in the inside channel and drive at the space between the RB and the RCB. Son would create indecision between the RB & RCB and driving at this gap allowed him to amass 32 SIB over that time. To quote Jordie, “His xG has never been amazing but due to him being an exceptional finisher he was a clear and obvious pick during the first weeks of the season. He averaged 0.364 xG per 90 from GW1-18. However, since GW19, he averages only 0.166 xG per 90.”

The shots heat maps shows us how Son could pepper the goal w/ SIB from almost anywhere in the box. Recently, however, he is being confined to the top right of the box where he cuts in and shots speculatively.

Isolating Son also Isolates Kane. It is when defenders have to shift towards Son, that Kane is most effective. The potential introduction of Bale to the starting lineup could provide the destabilizing element needed for Kane to flourish. It remains to be seen if Mourinho releases Son from the wing and allows him to come back inside.

Jamie Vardy / Harvey Barnes vs Arsenal(H), Burnley(A)

Vardy and Barnes come in at 82 and 81 respectively in the captaincy metric. The stat that seems to be differentiating them is the Returns Per Match. This stat in the metric is taken over the last 12 GWs rather than the last 6 for the rest. Vardy has a 0.75 RPM while Barnes has 0.67. Surely Barnes would surpass Vardy in the metric if that stat were taken from the last 6 GWs because of Vardy’s absence. It may even favor Barnes when comparing last 6 matches played. 

LEI have scored 5 goals in the 2 matches Vardy has started since returning from hernia surgery. Maddison with 2 on 0.34 xG, Vardy with 1 on 1.46 xG, and Barnes with 2 goals on 1.01 xG. What is striking about the stats is that Maddison only has an xA of 0.08 since Vardy’s return. 

Translating these stats into a heat map, it becomes apparent how much less Maddison has been involved since Vardy’s return.

I would not, however, conclude that Maddison being less involved recently means his loss will have a minimal effect on Vardy and Barnes. Last week I wrote about Harvey Barnes and his positioning as it relates to Maddison. If we include Vardy’s positioning, we begin to see the Rodgers puzzle take shape.

The reason this is so important is because it is the interplay of Maddison and Vardy that opens space for Barnes to provide returns. When Leicester attack, Vardy either holds the defenders as close to the goal as possible or sits on the right side of the field to overload it and create a hole in the center for Barnes to fill. When Maddison is not playing, Vardy comes closer to Barnes and his involvement is therefore further away from goal. When Maddison plays, Vardy can get closer to goal and closer to the right side of the field to combine with him and to open the field for Barnes to use his speed from the right.

We see this when comparing the first 5 GWs to the last 20 GWs.

The 2 heat maps on the left are GWs 1-5 when Maddison was out. On the right we see GWs 5-25 played with Maddison. Take a close look at the difference in concentration of orange and difference in shape. Vardy is much more present on his right side when Maddison plays. He is also much more active in the box and near the 6-yard box. Barnes feels confident to hold more width when Maddison is playing, and this space created allows him to penetrate closer to the penalty spot when entering the box. See @FPLFox’s really comprehensive analysis here for images of LEI overloading the right side with Vardy and Maddison (and now Pereira) and creating space for Barnes:

There is no doubt the team will suffer without Maddison, but I cannot say exactly how because I am not certain how Rodgers will deal with the absence. Straight swap? 4-4-2? I just do not know. Maybe @FPLFox can give us an idea. Either way, LEI is a team that has proven itself to be adaptable this season. They have played a variety of ways this season and have had some impressive success. Without Maddison’s service, however, I think I prefer Barnes to use his speed to create moments on his own. Vardy seems more dependent on the perfectly timed ball, and that perfectly timed ball, may take a while to come without Maddison on the pitch. The fact that they are so close in the metric reminds me we are splitting hairs with these two, which is another reason I prefer the less expensive option in Barnes.

LEI play ARS and BUR in DGW26. Mariner’s FDR classifies those matchups as almost neutral at -0.1 and 0.1 respectively. ARS are a balanced defense that are statistically middle of the pack in most defensive stats. There is one stat that seems like an outlier and that is that ARS have conceded the 5^th most SIB in the last 4 GWs (33). Vardy has the most SIB in the last 4 GWs. This could be an interesting weakness to exploit if LEI can get Vardy the ball in the box.

I wrote about BUR and their favorable defensive stats earlier. Their deep block could make things difficult for LEI. Rodgers could instruct Vardy to drop and link play in a similar way to Kane, and have Barnes run in behind the way Son used to do. 

Much uncertainty in the matchups because of the unknown of the tactics.

Dominic Calvert Lewin / Le Petit Prince vs Southampton(H), WBA(A)

DCL makes it in the captaincy metric despite missing 2 of the last 6 matches so he must be in some good form. He comes in with an impressive 81 score tying Harvey Barnes. There isn’t much to say about him because we haven’t seen him much recently, but he has the 10^th best xG over the last 4 GWs (1.68) and has 2 goals and 2 assists in that time while only playing 118 minutes. With 4 BCs, and 6 SOT in those 118 minutes, DCL must be a consideration this week against SOU and WBA. 

I took a snapshot of GWs 17-21 and 22-25 to compare DCL, and EVE, out of form and in form. The passes received heat map shows us that DCL travels the field looking for the ball when the team is not in good form. These are GWs where he is not getting service at the tip of a very blunt spear.

The xG shots maps show us how much lower the xG of his opportunities is when he is not able to park himself at the top of the box the way he did in GWs 22-25. This increase in xG of his shots is very encouraging for a player who began the season labeled the next Pipo Inzaghi.

The FDR lists SOU at 0.9, so a relatively favorable fixture. WBA interestingly clocks in at -0.4 for EVE, almost neutral and worse than SOU. The SOU matchup is interesting because there are some confusing stats about them. SOU have the highest xGC Delta over the past 4 GWs (+4.64). This means they conceded 4.64 more goals than their xGC. The next highest is NEW with +2.97. The other interesting data point with SOU is that they do not seem to be conceding from the right side at the rate they had been earlier this season. In the last 4, SOU has conceded a median 11 chances from the right and only 2 fewer chances from the middle. The left side remains stingier with only 7 chances conceded, 3^rd best.

When facing WBA, I think Ancelotti will look to James Rodriguez to be the primary playmaker. WBA have shown a vulnerability on their left side with 14 chances conceded over the last 4 GWs, which is 5^th worst. Most other defensive stats have recently shifted towards neutral as a matchup.

Little Prince Pick of the Week

The Little Prince Pick of the Week is about someone overlooked or forgotten that I pick with my heart more than my mind. The FPL asset requiring a different lens to be seen.
“The most beautiful things in the world cannot be seen or touched, they are felt with the heart.”
Richarlison was a preseason darling of mine and he is finally catching fire. He is famously a streaky player and he is coming off 1 goal each against LIV and MCI. This production has coincided with Richarlison filling in at the 9 for DCL, and DCL is back. I would not be surprised if Ancelotti bring back his favored 442 and throws Richarlison up front with DCL at least in certain game situations to capitalize on his form and confidence. Richarlison running off of DCL could also allow DCL to park himself as a target at the edge of the box. Sadly, I am not set up to bring Richarlison into my team, but if he hauls, I’ll be flying nonetheless.

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL DGW 26:

FPL DGW26 Differential picks to consider ahead of FPL GW26 Deadline
FPL DGW 26 – Chip Strategy, Tips, and Team Reveal |FPLNima
All that you need to know about FPL cup
History Of Fantasy Football And Origin Of FPL
FPL History: Highest Scoring FPL Players Each Year Since The First FPL Season in 2002/03
FPL Tools guide for managers: Free and Paid

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FPL Lens

FPL Lens, otherwise known as Gabriel, is a B licensed coach and writes #FPLMatchups articles from a coach's perspective. He uses his 25 years of coaching experience to examine teams, players, and situations in the premier league with the aim of gaining some insight for FPL. His methodology begins with the eye test, and he will often use various types of heat maps to illustrate his points. Stats for him are always a good way to verify our experience of the game. He can be found on Twitter here: https://twitter.com/FPLLens

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