This blog is written by Gabriel also known as FPLLens on Twitter. Do drop him a follow on Twitter and stay tuned for his matchups blogs as he’s now a resident writer here at allaboutfpl.com
Welcome to a special FPL Matchups addendum for #GW25. This is an impromptu analysis that came almost as a challenge by @FPL_Banger. Viewers of #NetThatHaul have a weekly joke where they troll me because of my well-known disdain for a certain Harvey Barnes. My bias against Harvey runs so deep that I have not fully endorsed him as a top option at all this season. Barnes has returned in 7 of the last 10 GWs and I have failed to enthusiastically endorse him even against defenses like CRY and LEE.
This, therefore, is an exploration into my bias through my customary coach’s lens. I must admit that the concept of examining my bias using the lens I probably used to create it in the first place seems wrong, but I don’t really know what to do about it so let’s just get to it.
Harvey Barnes
In the first 2 GWs this season, Barnes came out of the gates trying very hard to fly with a league-high 10 shots in the box. A tally equaled only by King Mo Salah, and King Troll Richarlison (he was good at one point, I swear). Of those 10 shots in the box, he had 5 on target (1st) but he was 21st for xG at 0.86. This last stat epitomizes the Barnes experience for me. When I watch LEI, Barnes does not look dangerous even when he is in dangerous areas with the ball. Watching his lack of finishing skills was painful as a coach and a striker. The source of my bias.
My aversion to Barnes turned out to be the right call for most of the first 14 GWs of the season as Barnes provided returns in only 3 of the first 14 matches. Since GW15, however, this aversion has only blinded me to the potential of a reliable FPL asset. He has now returned in 7 of the last 10. Here are some xG shot maps depicting his season from a shots perspective.
The xG maps show the first 2 GWs where Barnes had 10 SIB w/ a relatively low xG, and then a range of GWs to show the progression of his shots until 14, and finally GWs 15-24 to compare the past with the present. The first 2 GWs Barnes was driving into pressure in the box too much.
A SIB is not necessarily better than a shot outside the box (SOB lol) if, for example, there is more traffic in front of you. GWs 1-6 show the same as 1-2, but we begin to see some SOB. GWs 1-14 we see a couple more SOB, and an increase in his xG shots. This seems like a good place for the age-old warning that correlation is not causation. That said, look at the splattering of SOBs in the last 10 GWs where he returned in 7 of 10.
Futbol is obviously not a one-man game so let’s take a look at another goal scoring element of this team. The Barnes – Maddison comparison has been done extensively. I therefore took a look at Vardy.
The first thing I noticed is that during the first 14 GWs Vardy returned 7 times despite missing 1 match. 5 of those 7 returns were double-digit returns. In the last 10 matches, Vardy has only started 5, and he has a mere two returns. His production seems to have an inverse relationship to that of Barnes.
Further Read: FPL DGW 25 – Chip Strategy, Tips, and Team Reveal |FPLNima
The Stats
In the first 14 GWs Vardy had 24 BCs to Barnes 8. Barnes did manage to score 8 goals from an xG of 5.34 during that time, but his min/xG was a paltry 338.6 compared to Vardy’s 112.6.
What’s interesting, is that during a period in the last 10 GWs the min/xG for Barnes remained almost unchanged at 338.2 min/xG. Vardy dropped to 180.9 min/xG. Still significantly better than Barnes but not helped by his unimpressive 6 SOT, and 5 of 6 big chances missed during that time.
The HeatMaps
The passes received heat map confirms how as Vardy disappeared to injury, Barnes rose to the occasion and became more focal to this offense.
Maddison missed some matches early on as he recovered from injury, and he spent some time on the right wing.
Playing in a more central, supportive role has actually given Maddison the opportunity to get in the box more and receive the ball around the top of the box, where he is most dangerous. Maddison is the one that has seemed unaffected by the switch between Vardy and Barnes.
It’s impossible to say if Barnes will take a back seat once Vardy regains form and begins bagging some of those big chances. This is a team with a young group of players on the rise and an aging talisman who the team needs very much. Sometimes there is a deference to the veteran talisman if he is in form, so he gets fed more, leaving less opportunities for others.
In this case, I think my bias is going to get the better of me once again. I will be keeping an eye on Barnes and he could be a Son replacement but my money, and my WC, is on Jamie Vardy. I will continue to fade Barnes but I will not continue to overlook him.
Further Read: FPL DGW 25 – Chip Strategy, Tips, and Team Reveal |FPLNima
Sidenote: Pereira in that unmarked area could be very interesting indeed.
I hope you enjoyed this bonus matchups edition. Me vs my bias. Thanks for spending your time here. Have a great weekend and, of course, may your arrows be green.
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL DGW 25:
FPL DGW 25 – Chip Strategy, Tips, and Team Reveal |FPLNima
All that you need to know about FPL cup
History Of Fantasy Football And Origin Of FPL
FPL History: Highest Scoring FPL Players Each Year Since The First FPL Season in 2002/03
FPL Tools guide for managers: Free and Paid
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