FPL DGW24 & DGW25 Matchups & Fixture Analysis | Four Teams That Double In GW24 & GW25 Put Under the Lens

This blog is written by Gabriel also known as FPLLens on Twitter. Do drop him a follow on Twitter and stay tuned for his matchups blogs as he’s now a resident writer here at allaboutfpl.com
Welcome back to a special DGW24 & DGW25 FPL Matchups BLOG; my weekly think piece where I use my coaching lens to explore matchups in the #PL to gain some insight to navigate for our FPL decisions.

As pass through gates of the upcoming barrage of DGWs, our thoughts turn to players and strategies to maximize the number of matches and fixtures. The big DGW is obviously in #GW26, and 24 and 25 may be dead end GWs for many of us. 

I have left out EVE from this analysis because DCL was the obvious option and he is now injured. I may go for Richarlison for one week, but there is now way I can recommend that course of action for others.

I will be looking at the 3-game matchups for the 5 teams that double in either DGW24 or DGW25. The idea behind this topic is to give people options they can punt on before wildcards are launched en. Most of the players are therefore short to medium term picks.

Four Teams Put Under the Lens Ahead of DGW24 & DGW25

1. Burnley
2. Leeds
3. Villa
4. Fulham
5. Southampton

Burnley vs CRY & FUL, WBA

The first thing that stands out regarding BUR in the next 3 matches is, of course, the anemic attacks they are facing in their next 3 matches.
CRY has created the 2nd fewest big chances in the last 4 GWs (4 BC) and has the 4^th lowest xG in that time (2.42). While it’s true that CRY are a different beast w/o Zaha, the talisman started in 3 of those 4 matches, scoring only in GW20.
WBA speak for themselves. With an xG of 16.25 in 23 games, it remains noticeably lower than BUR, who rank second last with 19.26. The chances created map for WBA compared to the team that has created the 10th fewest BCs is both sad and comical in a circus kind of way. A freak attraction.

This is the result of a possession-based team trying to adapt to the PL. For the most part, it does not work. Bielsa is a freak of nature.

FUL are 7^th worst for xG (3.91) and 7^th worst for BC (6) over the last 4 matches (3.91). These numbers aren’t terrible, certainly not as bad as CRYs numbers, so they warrant a closer look to try to better understand the risk of the matchup.

Fulham attack:

Fulham have generated 4 attacking returns in the past 4 GWs with 2 goals and 2 assists. They have registered in eye-opening 50 goal attempts over the past 4 GWs, which is on par with LEE for the 7^th most. #numerology.

The problem is that FULs attempts are not high probability attempts as noted by their xG and their unimpressive 2 BC over that time. Low probability shots against a keeper like Pope are a magnificent recipe for a clean sheet and bonus points for the GK.

There are a couple of ways, however, that I can see FUL perhaps having some success. The black circles in the heat map represent areas of the field where BUR concede chances, but FUL do not create much in those areas. From a matchup perspective, there is not much of an alignment to exploit.  The case for Pope strengthens.

The matchups that align are indicated in purple. The larger one is quite far away from the goal, and the smaller one is at quite an acute angle to the goal. The line is simply a guess of mine. I could see 2 areas of the field where the matchups align to connect.

I have focused on BUR defensive matchups because I do not believe their attack is anything worth considering since Wood will not be available. Wood would be a fun selection against the teams that have conceded the most, the second most and the 6^th most headed chances this season, but that is sadly not an option for us or for BUR. Expecting attacking returns from a BUR defender seems a bit unrealistic to me. Over the last 4, Tarkowski has the highest xG (0.39), Lowton has the highest xA (0.18), and Mee has the goal. They’re all pretty similar imo.

FULHAM vs EVE & BUR, SHU

There are too many other quality defensive options for us to be considering FUL IMO so my attention is focused on Lookman, and Decordova-Reid (BDR). Lookman has garnered more attention recently in the twittersphere, but he is only 1.2% owned vs 1.1% for BDR. What I like about BDR right away is that he is perhaps the cheapest FOR who starts almost every game and has some upside.
A look at the touches heatmap shows that Lookman gets many more touches as he is much more involved in the build-up, but BDR has slightly more activity in the box.

This idea is confirmed with a look at the passes in the final third. 

The final comparison to complete the trifecta is of course the shots heat map. This is where the tale begins to twist.

Here, the budget FOR has significantly more goal threat than the midfielder over the last 4 GWs. Interestingly, Lookman has 16 touches in the box to BDRs 14 over the last 4. Conversely, BDR 8 shots in the box over that time compared to Lookman’s 5. Remember the purple circle as it is relevant to the matchup.

Fulham begin with the toughest matchup, Everton. EVE will be a difficult matchup for FUL, but they have shown some signs of weakness lately. EVE have conceded the 3^rd most chances from the right, and the 3^rd most chances from the left in the past 4 GWs. This vulnerability on the flanks could benefit BDR if used wide as suggested by the previous touches heat map.

Burnley is perhaps the easiest fixture, but Pope is obviously a difference maker. I explained earlier why Pope was a good selection, which means the bright spot for FUL players must be taken with tempered expectations. If there is a bright spot, I believe it is BDR. The two heat maps show FUL chances created on the left and BUR chances conceded on the right. The circles indicate the area of the field where BDR has been getting his chances over the last 4 GWs. 

BDR has some sneaky potential this GW, but his lack of involvement in other areas of the team make him prone to playing limited minutes.

SHU have improved recently, even facing difficult fixtures. They conceded the 4^th most big chances in the last 4 GWs, but they’ve played MCI, MUN, and CHE in that time. Despite those opponents, their xGC is a respectable 5.82 in the last 4. Playing those 3 CBs, they only conceded 7 chances from the middle of the field. Again, there is hope, but temper expectations.

Southampton vs Wolves (GW24), Chelsea, Leeds (DGW25)

Evaluating SOU is difficult because of their recent outlying performances and red cards. Recent history does not give us an accurate representation of what this team truly has to offer. Last match I thought SOU continued to struggle defensively. Romeu was back, but he was barely a shadow in that game. SOU desperately need him healthy if they are going to continue with only 2 CMs.

Despite that, Danny Ings was nevertheless the 2^nd biggest xG underachiever at -0.72 xG∆. xG∆ is simply goals scored minus xG. SOU are slowly getting their players back, however, and they have added Minamino, who scored last match (albeit from an xG of 0.09). His effect on the team remains to be seen, but his presence on the left flank and in behind the front 2 is intriguing.

Comparing Adams to Ings confirms Ings is much more involved in everything SOU do. The touches heat map illustrates this idea nicely.

Seeing the touches heat map made me think that Che might be assigned to that area at the top right of the box, but that is contrary to what I saw on the field when watching the match. I resort to the passes received heat map to settle my confusion.

The passes received heat map is more in line with what I experienced watching the match. Che is involved more in linking play and creating some chances. His radar map from @understat confirms this by showing Adams w/ more KP/90 and slightly higher xA/90, while Ings has more goal threat.

SOU have 1 fixture in DGW24 and 2 in DGW25. Their first opponent in this stretch is WOL. WOL defense is good again. I have not seen them often enough to be confident of the cause of their improvement, but they do seem to have changed their style of play to a counter-attack style despite only generating 1 chance from a counterattack in the last 4.

Their defensive stats over the last 4 GWs are impressive. They are tied for the 2^nd fewest BC conceded over that time with 4. Their xGC is also 4^th best at 3.66 in the last 4. What piqued my interest in WOL defensive stats is that their chances conceded is not as elite; it is middle of the pack. What could be interesting for managers investing in Ings is where WOL concede chances.

I have highlighted 2 potential areas of the field where SOU could have some success based on recent trends from a chances created and chances conceded perspective. The circle represents the area of the field where Ings can do some damage (see Ings’ passes received heat map). The rectangle is me looking to Minamino to build on his performances and get in behind Semedo.

CHE will be a tough test for Ings and SOU. Since Tuchel has taken over this squad, he has turned them from a good defense into an elite one.

While Rudiger has been the only player to really challenge CHE defense during that time, CHE stats are still way beyond the rest of the pack. For example, MUN is 3rd for SIBC over the last 4, & they have conceded 19 SIB compared to CHE 11. The 3rd best xGC is about 80% more than CHEs best xGC over that time as well.

Leeds v Southampton

The final matchup will help us Segway to LEE. LEE defense has been a prime matchup this season, but they have been improving over the past 4 GWs despite only registering 1 CS vs a lowly Palace attack during that time. LEE have gone from close to bottom for most defensive statistical categories, to mid-table. They are 10^th for xGC (5.20), 8^th for BCC (7), and 7^th for SIB (27).

One defensive stat remains worst in the league for LEE. They have conceded the most chances in the middle of the field (22) in the last 4 GWs. The weakness is even more glaring when all the other defensive stats have improved. Ings’ touch heat map aligns nicely with this stat.

From a LEE perspective, SOU have conceded the most chances from their right side in the last 4 (19), while conceding the 4^th fewest chances from the left (9), and 5^th fewest from the middle (7). While I like Raphinha’s goal involvement lately, this is more of a matchup for Harrison, than for Raphinha. I imagine the middle and left side will be even tighter with a fully fit Romeu if he regains form in the next 12 days.

LEE also plays WOL in GW25. I have already mentioned WOLs improved defense. LEE creates many of their chances around the entire perimeter of the opposing box, and WOL have a vulnerability at the top left. I don’t like this matchup at al for LEE, but if there is an area where I see a potential chance, it is there.

Continuing moving backwards for LEE, their GW 24 fixture is ARS. ARS conceded the 3^rd most chances on their right side (17) in the last 4 and are middle of the pack for chances conceded through the middle and on the left. It is a case like SOU, but not as drastic a difference from one side to the other.
ARS have recently been one of the best counterattacking teams, creating the 2^nd most chances from counterattacks in their last 4 matches (4). LEE style of play makes them susceptible to counterattacks so ARS should get a couple of goals here.

This matchup should be a very interesting and dynamic tactical battle. Arteta never had any contact w/ Bielsa as a professional before their first meeting, which ended 0-0, but he did learn from Pep, who is highly influenced by Bielsa’s lens. A very difficult match to predict.

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW24:

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FPL Tools: All That You Need to Know About FPL Review

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FPL Lens

FPL Lens, otherwise known as Gabriel, is a B licensed coach and writes #FPLMatchups articles from a coach's perspective. He uses his 25 years of coaching experience to examine teams, players, and situations in the premier league with the aim of gaining some insight for FPL. His methodology begins with the eye test, and he will often use various types of heat maps to illustrate his points. Stats for him are always a good way to verify our experience of the game. He can be found on Twitter here: https://twitter.com/FPLLens

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