FPL GW1 To FPL GW4 Review: Early Trends & Analysis | FPL Fantatix

This blog is written by FPL Legend MJ aka @fplfanatix OR’148 last season!

WOAH! UNBELIEVABLE! CRAZY STUFF! – I am sure most of you had similar reactions at the end of FPL GW4 and what has been the most unpredictable start to the season as far back as I can remember. Goals galore, top sides conceding goals and putting in performances like they have never played football *cough* Liverpool *cough* Man United. It has been a completely random start to the season and there are no clear strategies that seem to work currently with sides performing in an utterly bizarre fashion and fraught with inconsistencies.

Well done to the ones who have come through these 4 FPL GWs unscathed. Chin up, the ones that haven’t as there are loads of GWs to go and level of unpredictability being sky high in these 4 GWs meant that the variance has been huge but as I said, there is a lot of time to go and lots can change between now and FPL GW38.

My 2020/21 FPL season so far

I currently sit at an OR of 1.2m with my total points of 226 below the 60 pts weekly target that I aim to achieve. Lots of learning and I am not happy with my OR currently but with my WC still left, I hope to improve my OR and improve it soon. My side has a few issues currently but with 2 FTs I am hoping to address them with hits/FTs and save the WC for a rainier day.

Introduction to the FPL GW1 To FPL GW4 Review: Early trends & analysis

The aim of this article is to try and make some sense of the early season trends and what we have seen so far, despite how random and bizarre it looks to us on the face of it. With the much needed FPL break, it is important to take a step back, analyze the information we have within this madness and hopefully bring some forward thinking for the GWs to come now.

I will pick certain teams that caught my eye from the first 4 GWs of the 2020/21 FPL Season (for the right and wrong reasons) and analyze key players from those sides.

The teams that have caught my eye for the first 4 GWs of the 2020/21 FPL Season and ones that I will cover in more detail are

• Spurs
• Everton
• Liverpool
• Manchester clubs
• Leeds United
• Aston Villa
• West Ham

Let us jump straight in to the FPL Season review. All stats taken from the Opta stats section on FFHUB

Spurs FPL Season Review:

The most spoken about side after the first 4 GWs has to be this topsy turvy Spurs side. 2 mind numbingly brilliant performances on either side of 2 quite poor performances. We cannot predict which Spurs side turns up, and I am not sure we see similar defensive performances to the ones we saw from Saints and United which were beyond abysmal, to be honest. It was worse than schoolboy defending.

Moving to their numbers, they currently top the xG (8.47) and xA (6.58) charts and we can see a clear over performance of 12 goals and 11 assists vs those numbers courtesy Ralph’s stubbornly stupid high line and Ole’s tactical masterclass (and Slabhead’s comical performance too). Can they sustain this, of course not but their fixtures are kind with them having the best fixture run from GWs 5-8 as per the FF Hub fixture ticker. We cannot discount or ignore the form Son and Kane have showed as well, with them being the top 2 points scorers in FPL currently. The underlying stats are strong as well especially for Kane who has a better xG (3.53 vs 2.96) and a better xA (3.20 vs 1.96) than Son. In terms of goal threat and creativity numbers, both Kane and Son are dominating as expected. In fact, the powerful duo are at the end of more big chances (Son 6, Kane 5) combined than 17 premier league sides!!! Both are in the top 5 players in terms of shots on target as well as key passes.

Son vs Kane FPL GWs 1-4 Comparison

The thing to note here is the massive overperformance of underlying numbers – Son has 6 goals vs xG of 2.96 and Kane has 6 assists vs an xA of 3.20. This obviously is unsustainable but with the fixtures they have and the ruthlessness that we have seen in 2 games warrants inclusion of at least one of them in our sides and a double up also has its merits for the next few GWs.

Everton FPL Season Review:

Lots of people expected the Toffees to do well with the first full season under Don Carlo and the transfer window reinforcements, and they are off to a flier this season with 4 games, 4 wins and 12 goals scored.

Their xG of 8.47 is 3^rd behind Spurs and Liverpool and despite keeping just 1 clean sheet and conceding 5 goals, their xGC (3.97) is 2^nd best in the league (behind West Ham) which shows that they have been one of the better defenses this season and Pickford might be to blame here for them conceding more than they should have.

A team that has started off very confidently but there are some testing fixtures (Liverpool and United) in their upcoming run where we might be able to see a clearer picture of whether they can sustain this form.

In terms of the key players, DCL and Richarlison have been a real goal threat with 13 and 11 shots inside the box, respectively. DCL has been on the end of 6 big chances this season which is the joint highest this season and it is mind boggling, how his form completely transformed from the post restart era last season to the start of this season.

The biggest reason for this goal threat is the creativity of the left footed maestros in that side – James (Hamez) Rodriguez and Lucas Digne. They have 2 assists each with 12 key passes (4 BCC) for Hamez and 8 key passes for Digne. Doucoure has been instrumental as well with 7 key passes and 1 big chance created.

Notably only KDB, Salah and Son have made higher key passes than Hamez, shows the kind of form the Colombian has hit in the PL from the off.  What also bodes well for DCL is that Everton are one of the teams with higher number of crosses (70 and 7^th amongst all sides) with a decent 25.7% conversion and DCL has had 5 headed attempts already.

These numbers and the way Everton have started means a lot of FPL potential especially at those prices. DCL and Hamez remain the best options with Digne, Richarlison and Doucoure being not far behind.

Liverpool FPL Season Review:

For the first time in ages, they are the 2^nd best team on Merseyside with their bitter rivals off to a flier this season. Keeping aside the Villa game (for obvious reasons :-p), Liverpool have actually started off well from an attacking POV. Their xG of 10.45 is only behind Spurs and have 11 goals to show for it. In terms of creativity, their xA of 7.27 is again behind only Spurs and they have the highest key passes (52) of any other team so far.

However, to address the big issues we have seen so far, they have been defensively extremely vulnerable. The Villa result obviously skews results, but the fact of the matter is that they have conceded fewer goals (11) than just West Brom (13) so far.

They have also conceded 10 big chances which can only be beaten by West Brom (12) and Manchester United (14). Interestingly, Liverpool have the largest difference in xGC (6.68) and actual GC i.e. 4.32. Well is that Adrian effect? Looks like it. I do think that the Villa game is a one-off occurrence, and we will see them improve defensively.

In terms of key players, Mo Salah has started the season off in stunning form, is joint top for shots (19) and top for shots inside the box (15). Not a lot have been on target though (7) but with 5 goals from an xG of 3.23 he has started the season well.

He has had 42 touches in the box which is the highest and a staggering 12 touches more than the 2^nd rank (Sterling with 30). With Salah though, it is not just goal threat.

He also is joint top with KDB for key passes made (14) and is behind only Kane and Rodriguez for big chances created. Liverpool have faced Chelsea, Arsenal and have had the Aston Villa drubbing in these 4 GWs so Salah for me is posting incredible stats and is one of the best FPL options around.  

TAA vs Robbo FPL GWs 1-4 Comparison

Defensively, despite the lack of clean sheets, TAA and Robbo still offer enormous attacking threat with both of them amongst the top 6 defenders for key passes made (TAA 8, Robbo 5) and TAA has created 2 big chances already and Robbo 1 big chance. TAA also tops the total shots metric with 7 shots but none inside the box and none on target. Here however, we see VVD and Robbo do well.

Van Dijk has 4 shots, 3 of them inside the box and 2 on target. Robbo has 4 shots, all inside the box and 2 of them on target. The defenders hence still make a very strong case for inclusion. However, if I had to pick one I would pick Robbo who is outscoring TAA comfortably on goal threat, is on certain set pieces and is 0.5m cheaper.

Manchester United FPL Season Review:

“Ole’s at the wheel”

The Red Devils are off to an absolute shocker, a loss vs Palace where they were comfortably the 2^nd best side, extremely lucky to pull off the win vs Brighton with the late penalty and then humbled 6-1 by Spurs where the performances of those United defenders was comical and would make circus clowns proud. I have not seen something like that before.

United have been poor in attack and absolutely abysmal defensively. Some numbers below which will show why you should completely steer of United FPL assets (except Bruno maybe who gets pens every game) till we see a change in this form.

Given they have played 1 game less than 16 sides, I compare their per 90’ numbers.

United rank 14^th in terms of Shots/90’ with 9.7 shots. What goes worse now is the SoT/90’ where they rank 15^th (3 SoT/90’) and SiB where they are only beating West Brom with 5 shots inside the box per 90’. With 6.7 key passes per 90’ and less than 1 big chance per game, their creativity numbers also lie in the bottom half of the table. This is really poor from a side who were one of the best sides post restart.

Now if the attack has been the poor, the defence takes things to a whole new level. They have conceded the highest number of big chances (14) of any other side in the PL, including your whipping boys WBA and FUL despite playing a game less than most PL sides. New whipping boys?

Their xGC of 8.54 is better than only West Brom and have conceded 54 shots (4^th highest), 37 of them inside the box (3^rd highest). Again, they beat only Leeds and West Brom when it comes to SiB conceded. These numbers are ominous especially when we consider they have played a game less than 16 PL sides. Yes, they had a game vs Spurs where they conceded 6 goals but Liverpool conceded 7 vs Villa and are not even close to having such poor defensive stats. Liverpool have conceded 33 shots which is 4^th best vs 54 shots for United which is 4^th worse. This is with Liverpool having played a game more.

In terms of key players, there is not much to say except maybe Bruno. He is 6^th in terms of xPts/90’ with 7.8 pts but has offered nothing except pens. His NPxG/90’ is 0.07, which is horrendous. With Chelsea Arsenal and Everton in the next 4, I would be wary of bringing in United players. Bruno is a hold at best but that is only if United keep winning penalties at this rate. With Martial unavailable through the red card, the penalty winning potential also drops considerably with other midfielders such as Son, Hamez, Grealish doing well, 10.5m is too much to pay for only penalties.

Manchester City FPL Season Review:

A mixed start for Pep’s men with a really strong performance vs one of the best defences in the league and then a resounding loss at home vs Leicester followed by a draw vs promoted Leeds.

See below the comparison of the post restart numbers from 19/20 season for City vs the 3 games for them in 20/21 so far.

From the above we can see a clear drop off in all key attacking stats with the most concerning being the halving of the big chances and FPL pts numbers from last season post restart to the current season.

Defensively though just like United, we can see a huge drop in performance. They are conceding 5 shots on target per 90’ this season vs 2.5 last season post restart. The big chances they concede per game have also doubled to 3.33 from 1.6 last season resulting in an xGC/90’ of 2.2 this season vs 1 last season post restart. To note here that their xGC/90’ is only better than West Brom and their Manchester rivals. A very similar appalling defensive display to Manchester United makes you wonder if the lack of or lesser pre-season is the reason for this. But things need to change very quickly at the back for both the Manchester Clubs as what we have seen so far is disgustingly bad.

In terms of key players, both Kevin De Bruyne and Sterling are not posting incredible goal threat numbers. KDB is taking 3.7 shots per 90’ (1.3 on target) and Sterling 3.1 shots per 90’ (1 on target). However, an xG/90’ of 0.54 for KDB keeps him in the top 20 (just about) with a very poor 0.23 xG/90’ for Sterling, However, in terms of creativity, KDB has made the most key passes per 90’ with 4.67 key passes and with penalties in his locker, he will return FPL pts sooner rather than later.

Below is a comparison of Sterling and KDB as well for GWs 2-4.

West Ham, Leeds and Aston Villa FPL Season Reviews:

These 3 sides have made this article because they have unexpectedly caught my eye and have had a really good start to the season.

West Ham FPL Season Review:

First let us talk about West Ham. They rank 5^th in terms of Shots/90’ (14.5) only behind Liverpool, City, Villa and Spurs. They also take 10.5 shots inside the box per 90’ (4^th highest) and 4.8 shots on target per 90’ and have an xG/90’ of 1.62 (7^th amongst all sides). Defensively they are posting the best numbers. They have conceded 4 goals so far, which is the 2^nd best in the league behind only Villa. Their xGC/90’ of 0.77, 1.75 SoT conceded per 90 and 1 big chance conceded per 90’ has been the best in the league so far.

If this sounds impressive, what if I tell you they played Arsenal, Wolves and Leicester in this run and scored 7 goals against Wolves and Leicester with no reply. The fixture run is what makes these stats mind-blowing.

Two players that standout here are Michail Antonio and Tomas Soucek. Both have been an immense goal threat, with 15 shots (12 in the box, 8 on target) for Antonio and 12 shots (9 in the box and 2 on target) for Soucek. Both rank in the top 10 players overall in terms of total shots. Antonio has scored 2 goals off an xG of 2.65 and Soucek has an xG of 1.1 but it looks inevitable that he scores soon based on what we have seen so far.

Their fixture run is still tough with Spurs, City and Liverpool next 3 but their players become excellent FPL options from GW8 onwards.

Leeds United FPL Season Review:

Seeing how poorly West Brom and Fulham have started their PL campaign, their fellow promoted side Leeds United have actually started the season in a completely contrasting style. With a win, an impressive draw vs City and a terrific performance vs champions Liverpool, Leeds United could not have asked for a better start to the season given 2 of their first 4 games were vs PL giants.  

They have scored 9 goals so far and have posted good attacking stats. They have taken 45 shots so far with a whopping 32 of them coming inside the box, and an impressive 26 shots on target. The clear impressive stat is more than half their total shots have been on target. They have posted an impressive xG of 7.24 so far (6^th in the league). Their fixture run is still mixed so we can wait and watch more of how they do.

In terms of key players, it is their full backs Ayling & Dallas and their suddenly turned clinical striker Patrick Bamford. Bamford was infamous for an extremely poor conversion rate in the championship, but he has started off well in the PL. He has 11 shots with 10 of them in the box and 3 goals from just 6 shots on target (50% conversion!!!!!). He is clearly overperforming both his xG of 1.66 (3 goals) and xA of 0.43 (2 assists). In fact he has 2 assists from just 2 key passes and no big chances created. I am not sure he is a good option going forward as Rodrigo will also be knocking on the door and his overperformance is not sustainable.

The other two picks are the full backs Ayling and Dallas. Both are in the top 5 amongst all defenders in terms of xG with Dallas being top of the charts with an xG of 1.21 and 0.61 for Ayling. They also have good creativity numbers with 0.89 xA for Ayling and 0.59 for Dallas. See below some comparison numbers for the two but both are looking like they will offer incredible value for 4.5m.  

Ayling vs Dallas FPL GWs 1-4 Comparison

Aston Villa FPL Season Review:

Played a game less but are off to an absolute blinder and are 2^nd in the table with all 3 wins, one of them being an unbelievable, outrageous, thumping 7-2 victory vs the reigning champions.

Yes, they have done well, but before we jump on all their players, let’s see some of their underlying stats. They have 11 goals from an xG of 6.47 and 10 assists from an xA of 6.62. Shows a massive and clear overperformance. However, they have some decent attacking numbers

Per 90’ stats

Shots - 16 (3rd)
SoT – 6 (4th)
SiB – 11.3 (3rd)
Big chances – 3.3 (3rd)
Key passes – 14 and 
Big chances created - 3.33 (1st)

Defensively they have been above average with an xGC of 1.41 per 90’, however it is much higher than their xGC/90’ of 0.98 post restart last season. However, with the addition of Martinez and their post restart defensive form, I think their defence offers good value especially Konsa and Martinez.

In terms of their attacking players Watkins, Grealish and Barkley are the top 3 options in my opinion.

See some of their key stats below (per 90’)

The above stats show the incredible value Watkins can offer if he continues this form.

Also, Villa have the 3^rd best fixture run (attacking potential) from GW 5-10 as per FF HUB fixture ticker and hence the inclusion of one of these 3 attackers and/or Martinez is a good idea.

My Conclusion from the FPL Season so far

My key FPL prospects based on the above analysis would be the following players

• Son, Kane (Spurs)
• Rodriguez, DCL, Richarlison, Digne (Everton)
• Salah, Robbo, TAA (Liverpool)
• De Bruyne, Sterling (City)
• Antonio, Soucek (West Ham)
• Ayling, Dallas (Leeds)
• Watkins, Grealish, Barkley, Martinez (Villa)

That is all from me folks, hope you enjoyed this piece, and it helps make those upcoming FPL decisions a little bit easier. Hope you are enjoying this international break with FPL back soon. Will be back with my weekly matchups for GW5 soon and will explain what it is but I think it should interest you all.

Thanks for reading the FPL Review of the season so far. May you’ll always have green arrows!

You can reach out to me @FPLFanatix on Twitter. Check out my last season review Article, MJ’s column | FPL 2019/20 Season Review & Lessons Learnt Complete FPL Guide from the man who finished with an OR of 148

Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW5:

All you need to know about FPL cup
History Of Fantasy Football And Origin Of FPL

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