We are three game weeks into the new FPL season and it already seems to be a long time, that’s how crazy the first three game weeks have been. GW3 Especially turned out to be quite dramatic for FPL managers with most of the predictions going wrong and the popular FPL assets failing to return which ensured the average GW score to be just 43. Not just that the season so far has seen a high number of penalties awarded thanks to the new handball rule. Let’s look into some of the hot takes and preview FPL GW4 in this blog post.
FPL GW4 Preview & Hot Takes:
1. Penalties Galore so far in PL:
The talk of the season so far has been VAR and penalties. Attackers are more than happy to go down, target hands with the new rules favoring them. This has a huge impact in terms of FPL with the need to have penalty takers in your squad. There have been 20 penalties from 28 games this season averaging 0.71 pens per game compared to 92 penalties from 380 games last season averaging 0.24 penalties per game– Almost a three-fold increase. Vardy is the best example to suggest this with an NPxG of 0.48, getting 5 goals from 3 games(4 of them coming from the spot). What makes it even more interesting is this comparison between Vardy and Werner across 3 games:
Jamie Vardy– 58 touches, 11 in the box, 5 goals
Timo Werner– 145 touches, 21 in the box, 0 goals.
Players with Most penalty box touches over the opening three weeks:
Team with the most penalties won and penalty box touches over the opening three weeks:
Here is the list of penalty takers and their stats from Sugee_FPL:
2. Brighton and Trossard unlucky so far.
Brighton have just 3 points from 2 games despite playing amazing football and unlucky not to get even a single point in two games. Brighton have created 7 big chances( 2nd highest in the league) despite playing United and Chelsea in 2/3 games. Trossard (£6.0 Mil) and Lamptey (£4.6 Mil) are still massively under-owned at 1.6% and 9% and look to be the best options in that price bracket for the longer run.
Trossard has 1 goal, 1 assist, 8 shots(3 on target), xG-1.04, xA-1.08 from 3 games. But the underlying fact is that Trossard has hit the woodwork 4 times and extremely unlucky not to score more. If hitting the woodwork is counted as a shot on target, Trossard would have 7 shots on target (Highest in the league on par with Kane, Barnes, and DCL). Lamptey(£4.6 Mil) has 3 assists(Best among defenders), Goal Involvement of 50%(Joint best), and should be on on your team if you are bringing in a defender with Brighton’s fixtures.
Carabao Cup Update: Both Trossard and Lamptey are not part of the starting 11 against United and are rested as Brighton lose 3-0 to Man United.
3. Soucek seems to be the real deal:
Soucek has quickly emerged to be the best budget midfielder this season. The hammers midfielder is strong on headers and is taking dangerous positons inside the box and has been taking shots outside the box and is also potentially on penalties if club captain Noble isn’t on the pitch.
Against Wolves in GW3, Soucek had five shots on goal(Only mason mount had more shots on goal in GW3 than soucek), four of them inside the box, Two shots on target, and had two big chances with an xG of 0.94. Soucek did put a header past Patricio which was given as Raul Jimenez OG which eventually made settle him the assist and six points. But the numbers are absolutely mental for a 5 Million midfielder.
Over the opening three weeks, Soucek has had 10 shots, 2 on target, seven inside the box, and has an overall xG of 1.07 and an xPts of 15.2 points. If you have Soucek in your teams we would recommend starting him week in week out as he’s a player who could chip in any game.
Carabao Cup Update: Soucek was rested as Everton defeat West Ham 4-1.
4. Leicester- Most improved team?
Leicester topped the headlines in GW3 with a remarkable 5-2 win over Manchester City. The defensive charts this season are a little surprisingly dominated by Leicester full-backs Castagne(5.7) and Justin(4.7). Castagne has returned in all 3 games this season with 27 points(Most points among defenders) which includes 3 assists, goal, and a CS. Castagne has the third-highest touches(8), Justin(6)- 4th highest touches among defenders in the opponent’s box. Both of them do not shy away from charging into the opponent’s box as seen in the last three games.
Vardy did score a hat trick against City with the just 5 touches in City’s box and already leads the golden boot race(5). Using an FT transfer on Vardy seems to be a good move in the longer run. But at the moment with these mid-priced forwards Jimenez(8.6), Ings(8.4), DCL(7.4), Richarlison all starting well, Vardy can wait. He is a very risky captain option for GW4 with those NPxG(0.48) and touches(11 in the opponent box) stat over the opening three games.
5. Ings up against a leaky WBA Defense:
Owned by 20% of managers, Danny Ings (£8.4 Mil) has already earned his managers 22 points and is up against a West Brom have conceded 11 goals(Highest), 52 shots(Highest), 34 Shots inside the box(Highest), 24 SoT(Highest), and 11 Big Chances conceded (Highest) over the opening three weeks. The numbers look very grim for WBA and Ings has had a good start to the season having scored 3 goals in 3 games and will look to add few more against in FPL GW4.
6. Wolves and Jimenez will look to bounce back against struggling Fulham:
It’s still early days into the season but Fulham look like the whipping boys like Norwich last season or like themselves from the 2018/19 season. Fulham conceded 86 in their last PL campaign with a defense of Odoi, Ream,Le Mercande and Bryan. A year later they are back in the top flight with the exact back line and have already conceded 10 (Only WBA have conceded more) in 3 games. Fulham have also conceded the second-highest Big chances against(8) and shots on target(18) as well.
Wolves were blown over by a resurgent West Ham United side but Nuno and his men will look to bounce back immediately and there isn’t a better fixture than Fulham at home in FPL GW4.
7. Everton’s impressive attack:
Everton have been really good impressive going forward this season. At the moment one among Everton’s forwards Calvert Lewin (£7.3 Mil), Richarlison (£8.0 Mil) looks to be a must-own. Calvert Lewin has the most goals(5), highest big chances this season(5), Best non-penalty xG(2.75), most shots in the box(12), most shots on target this season(7). Richarlison is not far behind with 3 assists,1 goal, xA of 0.92(2nd best among forwards) and is on penalties this season. But if you are to choose one among these two, it would DCL at the moment simply because of his price and the number of big chances he gets.
Carabao Cup Update: DCL scores a hattrick and Richarlison scored one for Everton but was later subbed off with slight discomfort. Allan was subbed off injured as well. James Rodriguez played the full 90 minutes. Carlo has confirmed that the injuries aren’t serious and both are most likely to make it for the weekend game vs Brighton.
8. To hold/transfer out City’s midfield assets?
The template for the GW3 wildcard saw managers double up/triple up on City midfield in the form of KDB, Sterling, and Foden which backfired heavily. But we would insist you to hold on to them firmly because Pep’s City usually bounce back well in the league after a loss. In fact, last season City lost 9 games all season and went on to win each game after their loss scoring 31 goals from 9 games averaging 3.44 goals/game the next game after a loss.
Man City are up against a Leeds side who are impressive but not so strong at the back. They have the second-worst xGC(6.74), conceded the second-most shots on goal(50), and have conceded the 2nd most big chances (8) only behind West Brom. So firmly hold on to City assets and big points are surely coming your way.
Carabao Cup Update: KDB, Sterling, and Mahrez start in Carabao Cup vs Burnley. Foden and Bernado Silva on the bench. Sterling gets a brace and Ferrnan Torres scored one as CITY win 3-0. Bsilva replaced KDB as a substitute while Foden stayed on the bench.
Further Read: FPL GW3 Saturday round-up & Review | ALLABOUTFPL
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Srinivasan S
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