Top FPL GW4 Differential Picks to Target Ahead of GW4 Deadline

The Differential Article continued with some decent scores, where 2 of our 6 picks returned with FPL
Points last week.

• Ismaila Sarr – 1 Goal – 7 Points
• Jack Grealish – 2 Assists, 2 Bonus – 10 Points

That makes it 7/18 picks who have returned FPL Points from our picks this Season

In this article, we will be highlighting 4 Players who are less than 10% owned and 2 Ultra Differential
(less than 1% owned) for all of you as of Tuesday, 10th September 2025. There are many more whom
you guys can consider if you decide not to go with the 6 players mentioned below.

Link to all our FPL GW4 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, best forwards, and more. Completely free to access as well!

Top FPL GW4 Differential Picks

Jean Phillipe Mateta – Crystal Palace – £7.5 Forward – 9.3% TSB

• Mateta got off the mark last Gameweek and is currently Palace’s best attacking option. With no worries of rotation due to Nketiah’s injury, penalty duties in his locker after Eze’s departure, and a great fixture against Sunderland at home (Sunderland lost miserably against Burnley away in Gameweek 2), Mateta is a great buy this Gameweek.
• Mateta has generated 1.24 xG, got 2 Big Chances, had 4 Shots on Target, 3 Shots in the Box, and most of it came in the last Gameweek. We all know that Mateta is a streaky player, and once he gets going, it’s very difficult to stop his momentum. Sunderland are also in the Bottom 6 for Attempts conceded from Set pieces and Headed attempts, something which Mateta thrives on.

Key Stat: Mateta has 4 Shots on Target so far this season- 2nd Highest among Forwards, Only behind Erling Haaland(5).

• Mateta now has 3 great fixtures in the next 4 Gameweeks with promoted Sunderland, leaky West Ham & Everton following soon. Mateta is also predicted to be in the Top 3 players for Gameweek 4 for expected points.

Further Read: FPL Fixture Swing Analysis – Best Fixture Runs to Target

Jurrien Timber – Arsenal – £5.6 Defender – 9.1 % TSB

• Arsenal’s fixtures are starting to swing where they will face bottom-half/promoted/low-scoring teams in 6 of the 8 Gameweeks. Even against the top teams, they regularly show that they are an elite defence. Despite playing against Manchester United and Liverpool, Arsenal are the only team in the League who have not yet conceded a single Big Chance so far. They are also in the Top 2 for xGC, which backs their strong defensive mindset, and have only conceded 1 goal (which was a brilliant Free kick against Liverpool).

Least Big Chances Conceded this season:

• Arsenal – 0
• Chelsea – 2
• Bournemouth – 3
• Newcastle United- 4

• With Saliba injured, Timber should be even more nailed to continue playing in the Back 4. He also has a brilliant set-piece threat as he scored 2 Goals and even got an Assist from Set pieces against Leeds. Timber also has the pedigree, as he scored 1 goal and 3 assists last season. Their opponents, Nottingham Forest, have conceded the most headed attempts (12) in the League so far this season. Timber also has a decent Assist threat if he plays as a Full back, and he has already played 4 Key passes and created 1 Big Chance for his teammates.

Note: Forest might

Further Read: 2025/26 FPL Chip Strategy Guide – First Half of the Season

Joachim Andersen – Fulham – £4.5 Defender – 2.8 % TSB

• Andersen & Fulham now play 2 Home games against 2 teams who have struggled to score this season. Leeds, who have only scored 1 Goal (at home), and Brentford, who have only scored 3 Goals (1 at home, 2 away). Leeds are the bottom-ranked team for Non-pen xG, and Brentford are ranked the 4th-worst team for the same metric.
• Andersen has shown decent Goal threat this season with 1 Shot on Target, 2 Shots in the Box, and 0.21 xG. His assist threat even looks better as he has played 2 Key passes and got 0.67 xA. He got 2 Goals and 3 Assists last season, which shows his attacking potential. Add to that, Andersen has good Defcon potential as he has already got 4 points from 3 Games this season. At 4.5, Andersen seems to be a Cheap Defender with Multiple avenues to points.

Andersen DEFCON stats so far this season:

• GW1 vs BHA(A) – 8 DEFCON
• GW2 vs MUN(H)- 11 DEFCON
• GW3 vs CHE(A)- 10 DEFCON

Further Read: FPL GW4 Wildcard Team – Tips, Players to Target and Best Drafts

Maxence Lacroix – Crystal Palace – £5.0 Defender – 2.4 % TSB

• Similar to Andersen, Lacroix is another Defender who has multiple avenues to points. Lacroix has hit Defcon in 2 of the 3 Gameweeks and actually crossed the Defcon barrier in Gameweek 3. OPTA updated Lacroix’s DC tally to 10 after the Villa game, but it was not updated in FPL. So technically, he’s hit the DC threshold in all three games, too.
• Lacroix also got an Assist last Gameweek and has got 0.12 xA and 0.5 xG so far this season. He has created 1 Big Chance, played 1 Key pass, and had 1 Shot on Target so far. Palace already have shut out attacking sides like Chelsea and Aston Villa, that too away from home, and are ranked joint 2^nd least for Shots on Target conceded. Palace, being a system-driven team, always adapt faster to any changes/injuries/departures.

Further Read: FPL GW4 Free Hit Guide – Tips, Players to Target and Best Drafts

Ultra Differential Pick for FPL GW4(Under 1 % Ownership)

Harvey Elliott – Aston Villa – £5.4 Midfielder – 0.3 % TSB

• Could Harvey Elliott finally have a breakthrough campaign in the League and in FPL this season? Elliott had been restricted to a bit part player under Arne Slot, but under Klopp in 2023/24, he created 37 chances at a rate of 1 chance per 40 minutes. He also had 49 Attempts and had 74 penalty area touches. 
• His numbers across the Big 5 Leagues are great (despite playing limited minutes). His stats, such as Non Penalty Goals is 0.67 per 90, Non Pen xG is 0.40, Shots per 90 is 3.53, and Assists per 90 is 0.34 per 90 (courtesy FBref).  With Villa’s creativity a big problem, Emery could throw Elliott straight into the team to help Watkins get up and running in the League. 
• Villa’s next 4 fixtures are the best in the League with matches against 2 promoted teams, Sunderland (away) and Burnley (home). Villa also face Everton, who have become an attacking team and are struggling defensively as they are the 2nd worst for Shots conceded, Big Chances conceded, and xGC in the League.

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 4 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell

Xavi Simmons – Tottenham – £7.0 Midfielder – 0.6 % TSB

• Spurs have bought a gem of a player as Simmons has performed consistently for Leipzig as well as the Netherlands over the last 2 seasons. Xavi Simmons is a versatile player who can play as a Left winger as well as a Support Striker. He is most renowned for his dribbles, neat and tidy passes, and amazing through balls.
• Simmons had a key pass every 42.3 minutes in the Bundesliga (only behind Wirtz’s 41.4 minutes). He also had 50 Shots from 25 starts. He can even play as a deeper 8 in a 4-3-3 or as a Number 10 in a 3-5-2 or 4-2-3-1 system.

With Spurs needing some creativity from the center of the pitch, expect Simmons to get good minutes in Gameweek 4. The entry point is great as Spurs play a West Ham team who are ranked 3rd worst for Shots in the Box and Shots on Target conceded, and 1st for Big Chances conceded. Spurs then have a good run of fixtures all the way up to Gameweek 9, which could make Simmons a lock if he starts off well for Spurs.

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW4

FPL GW4 Free Hit Guide – Tips, Players to Target and Best Drafts
2025/26 FPL Chip Strategy Guide – First Half of the Season
Top FPL GW4 Differential Picks to Target Ahead of GW4 Deadline
FPL GW4 Predicted Lineups, Injuries & Press Conference Updates
FPL Gameweek 4 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL Fixture Swing Analysis – Best Fixture Runs to Target
FPL GW4 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
FPL GW4 Wildcard Team – Tips, Players to Target and Best Drafts

Link to all our FPL GW4 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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