FPL GW38 – Fixtures & Players to Target for Gameweek 38

Hello everyone. Welcome to our fourth and final article for allaboutfpl for this season. We have finally made it to the last GW- FPL GW38. There are good seasons, bad seasons and really depressing seasons – how was yours?

Anyway, we will be looking at the key fixtures to target (basis odds and the delta xG metric) as well as the key players to target from these teams. Lets dive in.

Link to all our FPL GW38 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, free hit drafts, and more. Completely free to access as well!

Key Fixtures to Target for FPL GW38

Firstly lets look at the odds for this week. These have been calculated basis the odds from the oddschecker website.

FPL GW38 Odds and Expected Goals Data for FPL GW38:

Top 5 teams for expected goals:

• Bournemouth – 2.05
• Arsenal – 2.03
• Liverpool – 2.01
• Newcastle – 1.98
• Brighton – 1.85

Meanwhile the top 5 teams for clean sheet odds are:

• Newcastle – 45%
• Arsenal – 44%
• Bournemouth – 44%
• Liverpool- 40%
• Manchester City – 34%

Bournemouth, Arsenal, Liverpool, Newcastle are definitely the target teams for both attacking and defensive assets – as per odds. Meanwhile Brighton attacking assets can be considered, while Manchester City defensive assets can be considered.

Now what about the delta xG metric? As always – higher the difference, better for attacking assets. Lower the difference, better for defensive assets. I have found this metric to be just as good an indicator as odds and usually there are one or two different fixtures from the odds.

Top 5 teams for attacking assets:

• Arsenal – 3.4
• Palace – 3.3
• Brentford – 3.1
• Brighton – 3.1
• Newcastle – 3.0

Meanwhile top 5 teams for defensive assets:

• Manchester City – 1.5
• Chelsea – 1.8
• Newcastle – 1.9
• Bournemouth – 1.9
• Brentford – 1.9

Brentford is present in both these lists (while it wasn’t in odds). Palace attacking assets can also be considered. In the last 5 GWs, Liverpool have conceded the 3rd highest xGA (8.3) and 3rd highest goals (9). In fact 8 conceded in the last 3, after they won the league. Chelsea defense can also be considered, clean sheet odds are also 31%. Remaining teams are similar as odds.

Anyway so we have our key teams now. Attacking assets should largely be from Bournemouth, Arsenal, Newcastle and Liverpool. Brentford, Palace and Brighton assets can also be considered. Meanwhile defensive assets should be largely from Arsenal, Newcastle, Bournemouth, Liverpool and Manchester City.

Lets look at the key assets now.

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 38 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell

Top Players to Target for FPL GW38

Best Forwards for FPL GW38:

Alexander Isak

• While he did miss GW37, Howe has not completely ruled out his availability for GW38.
• If he is fit, he would definitely be a top pick for this week, probably my top pick for captaincy as well if he is guaranteed to start – Newcastle expected to score 2 goals against Everton.
• 2nd highest xGI (3.0) in the last 5 Gameweeks after Wissa (4.3); Isak has played a game lesser though (331 minutes vs 450 minutes for Wissa)

Ollie Watkins

• 2nd highest G+A (4) among forwards after Wissa (6) in the last 5 gameweeks.
• Villa playing a Manchester United team that has conceded 9 goals in the last 5 games and will be tired/rotated after the Europa final on Wednesday.
• Aston Villa expected to score 1.7 goals against Manchester United.
• 3rd highest xG+xAG/90 across these forwards for the season.

Wissa

• In the last 5 Gameweeks, he is highest amongst forwards for goals, assists, shots and xGI.
• Along with Isak, he is my 2nd best forward pick for forwards.
• Brentford playing a Wolves side that have now lost 3 in a row, they just conceded 4 against Palace last night as well.

Evanilson

• Bournemouth have the highest expected goals for this Gameweek at 2.05.
• Differential at just 4% ownership, can be a differential captain as well to help you gain some last few points on your rivals.
• Highest xGI amongst Bournemouth assets in the last 5 gameweeks, definitely can be considered if you are planning to get some BOU attack (Kluivert was off at HT in GW37 against Manchester City so can be skipped).

Danny Welbeck

• BHA expected to score 1.85 goals against Spurs (should be tired/rotated, similar to Man United).
• Welbeck has the highest xGI amongst Brighton attacking assets in the last 3 GWs with 2.3, Gruda a close second at 2.1
• Differential at 6% ownership

Others Forwards that can be considered:

• Cunha (excellent numbers but didn’t start GW37 so not in my top 5 picks).
• Marmoush
• Havertz (also only 6% owned, could be a good pick if we are able to build some confidence on him starting)

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 38 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell

Best Midfielders for FPL GW38:

Mbeumo

• In the top 5 for all metrics among the midfielders that we have looked at in the list.
• As mentioned earlier, Brentford are playing a Wolves side that have lost 3 in a row and conceded 4 against Palace last night.
• 4th highest among midfielders for points in the last 5 gameweeks, after Bowen, Eze and Schade.

Bukayo Saka

• Definitely the best underlying numbers among the Arsenal midfielders for the last 5 Gameweeks, though he doesn’t have any returns to show for it (Odegaard and Trossard have 4 each).
• I think he is due a haul and playing the worst defense in the league in the final game of the season will probably be the game for it.
• Definitely the 2nd best captaincy pick for me (after Isak) if he is guaranteed to start.

Salah

• 3 blanks in a row now, his longest streak this season; in fact he has 4 blanks in the last 5 games.
• We had done a thread earlier on whether one could go without Salah in the last stretch and it looks like one actually could have done it.
• However this is the final game of the season, he is still chasing the goal contribution record and they will be playing a Palace team which is also almost on the beach (having won the FA cup last weekend – their first ever trophy in club history).
• Definitely a strong pick basis numbers (as per the table), missed a very high xG chance against Brighton as well.

Bowen

• Highest points across all players in the last 5 gameweeks, 4 goals and 2 assists in this duration.
• Playing the 2nd worst defense of this season, Ipswich have conceded 79 goals in 37 games (2+ goals/game on average).
• Last time these 2 sides met, West Ham won 4-1 and Bowen had a goal and an assist (season highest of 12 points).

Odegaard/Trossard

• As mentioned earlier, while Saka has the better numbers, these 2 actually have 4 returns each in the last 5 games against Saka’s 0.
• Double up for Arsenal can be considered or if your risk appetite is low, you could pick one of these over Saka as well.

Eze

• In the last 5 Gameweeks, he is 2nd highest for points and returns, highest for xG/90 among midfielders.
• As stated earlier, Palace are playing a Liverpool side that have conceded 8 goals in the 3 games since they won the league.

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 38 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell

Best Defenders and GoalKeepers for FPL GW38:

Dan Burn

• 1 Goal, 1 assist in the last 5, highest count of greens in the table so definitely the top defensive pick for this week.
• Highest clean sheet odds of 45%

Kerkez

• 2nd highest clean sheet odds of 44%.
• Bournemouth expected to score 2+ goals, Kerkez could get an assist (5 this season, along with 2 goals).

Ruben Dias

• 5th highest clean sheet odds of 34%.
• 2nd highest scoring defender by points in the last 5 games with 27 points, behind only Konsa (with 29)

Van Dijk or Bradley

• 4th highest clean sheet odds of 40%.
• Bradley in fact had an xGI of 0.8 in the last game against Brighton, also got an assist.

Kiwior/Ben White

• 2nd highest clean sheet odds of 44%.
• Can double up on Arsenal defense alongside Raya.

David Raya

• 2nd highest clean sheet odds of 44%
• Currently tied on 13 clean sheets with Sels, should definitely have the motivation to go for the 14th.

And that’s a wrap. Best of luck for the final Gameweek and see you soon for the 25/26 season!

Further reads from AllAboutFPL ahead of FPL GW38:

FPL Gameweek 38 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW38 – Fixtures & Players to Target for Gameweek 38
FPL GW38 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Top FPL GW38 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW38 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More

Link to all our FPL GW38 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 38 of the 2024/25 FPL Season?

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