Are you looking to break away from the template with lower-owned punts and catch up ranks in your mini-leagues? Don’t worry we have got you covered with some spicy punts. In this article, we will be highlighting the Top FPL GW17 Differential Picks(<10% TSB) and Ultra-Differential Pick(<1% TSB) ahead of the GW17 deadline based on Stats and upcoming fixtures.
Link to all our FPL GW17 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
Top FPL GW17 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)
Alex Iwobi vs Southampton(H), £5.7m, TSB: 5.1%
Alex Iwobi in your FPL team is something you wouldn’t have imagined a few years back. To put things into context, Iwobi got 5 goals, and 2 assists last season and he has already surpassed it this season with 5 goals, and 3 assists from 16 games. He has more FPL Points this season than the likes of Son, Bowen, and Diaz. Iwobi’s recent form is more impressive as he has 3 goals, 2 assists, and 36 points from the last 6 games despite playing Arsenal, Liverpool, and Tottenham. With Andreas suspended for GW17, Smith Rowe is expected to play as the No.10 and Iwobi taking up LW which works in his favor.
Top Midfielders(£7.5 and Below) for FPL Points this season:
Iwobi’s underlying data is also decent- 27 Shots, 10 Big Chance Involvements, 1.94 xG, 3.3 xA, and 27 Chances created. His xA of 3.3 is only bettered by Bowen and McNeil among Midfielders less than £7.5.
One of the key things that work in Iwobi’s favor over other Budget Midfielders is that he is a 90-minute player and nailed to start every game(which is important during the festive period). If you have a good amount of money for your 8th attacker, Iwobi is a good choice and GW17 is a good entry point against a poor Southampton side.
Further Read: Best FPL GW17 Defenders to Consider | Ait-Nouri Replacements
Malo Gusto vs Everton(A), £4.9m. TSB: 1.9%
Gusto has made his return from injury and is now a nailed starter in the Chelsea team with Reece James suffering yet another setback. Chelsea do not have any clean sheets to show from the last 6 games but they have been decent and have conceded only 7 goals from the last 6 games- Joint 3rd least among all teams. They do not concede a lot of goals, but they are conceding the odd goal in every game. With better fixtures, it is likely to turn around.
Chelsea will be up against a Everton side in GW17 who are good defensively, but struggling for creativity and goals. In fact, Chelsea play Everton, Ipswich, and Wolves in three out of the next 6 games- The Three Bottom Teams for Expected Goals(xG) this season. There is a good potential for Chelsea to keep 3 or 4 clean sheets from the next 6 games. GW17 is a good entry point with the Everton fixture.
Everton’s Attack Rank this season:
- xG- 20th
- Shots inside the Box- 16th
- Big Chances- 20th
- Goals Scored- 19th
Gusto carries a good attacking threat from the full-back position- 0.18 xGI/90 this season and 0.22 xGI/90 last season. He has been on and off this season due to injuries but he should be a regular now that he is fully fit.
Anthony Gordon vs Ipswich(A), £7.2m, TSB: 9.1%
Anthony Gordon has certainly not lived up to his last season standards – 11 Goals, 16 Assists from 34 starts. He has only 3 goals and 3 assists from his 13 starts this season but is slowly getting into the groove.
Eddie Howe has basically experimented with the RW position this season- Rotating between Gordon, Murphy, Barnes and even trying out Joelinton there. Howe finally looks to have found the solution with Murphy at RW which brings out the best in the front three. Gordon is really good playing from the Left side and cutting in That is where his best lies. Over the last three games, Howe has played the front 3 of Gordon-Isak-Murphy with Barnes coming on as a sub.
Newcastle Attack Stats over the last 3 games in the league(Since Murphy began starting as RW):
- Goals Scored– 9(2nd)
- xG– 7.16(3rd)
- Big Chances– 12(3rd)
- Shots inside the box- 39(4th)
During these 3 games, Gordon also got a goal and assist with good underlying data- 4.55 Shots/90, 1.35 Big Chance Involvements/90, and 0.70 xGI/90. This might be the start of a good run for him like last season with a good entry point in the Ipswich fixture who are ranked 18th for xGC and 19th for Big Chances conceded in the league. After that,t they play Aston Villa who are also inconsistent in the league with just 2 wins from the last 8 games. Gordon might well be the FPL GW17 Differential Pick who will help you break away from the template.
Further Read: Best FPL GW17 Defenders to Consider | Ait-Nouri Replacements
Raúl Jiménez vs Southampton(H), £5.5m, TSB: 5.6%
First things first, if you are buying in Raul Jimenez for this amazing fixture run, be prepared to only get 70 minutes per game and a benching in one of the next 3-4 Gameweeks during the festive period. Like every other team Fulham play 4 games over the next 2 weeks and there is no secret that Jimenez’s minutes will be managed. But despite that, he is an excellent budget option to consider.
Outside the Chelsea game, all these games are really good fixtures for Fulham considering their current form- They are unbeaten in the last 4 games despite playing Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham, and Brighton. It wouldn’t be a shock if they averaged 2 goals/game during this run.
Raul Jimenez became a starter in GW4 and he hasn’t looked back since then. He has scored 5 goals, and 2 assists from 12 starts since then. He has 15 Big Chance Involvements(10 Big Chances and 5 Big Chances created), 6.3 xGI since then which are really great numbers for a 5.5 million forward. In fact, he is Top for xGI among Forwards less than 7.0 million as seen below. Jimenez is also on penalties which is an added bonus.
Top Forwards(£7.0 and Below) for Expected Goal Involvement since GW4:
Up against a Southampton side who are arguably the worst defensive side in the league- Ranked 20th for xGC and Big Chances Conceded, Jimenez and Fulham will be looking to have a party.
Kaoru Mitoma vs West Ham(A), £6.6m, TSB: 8.8%
Mitoma has become a 90-minute man this season but has not been able to get returns consistently this season with 3 goals, and 3 assists so far. His underlying data is good though- 0.43 xGI/90, 30 Shots,10 Big Chances, and 5 Big Chances created from 16 appearances.
Brighton are a good attacking side and play West Ham(A) and Brentford(A) in the next 2 fixtures- Where Mitoma can come alive again. This is in fact an excellent matchup for Brighton as West Ham struggle at their home and Brentford struggle while travelling as seen by the stats below.
Brighton’s next 2 Opponents Defense Rank:
| Metric | West Ham Home Defense Rank | Brentford Away Defense Rank |
| Shots inside the box Conceded | 18th | 20th |
| Expected Goals Conceded | 19th | 18th |
| Big Chances Conceded | 19th | 16th |
| Goals Conceded | 18th | 18th |
Further Read: Best FPL GW17 Defenders to Consider | Ait-Nouri Replacements
FPL GW17 Ultra Differential Pick (Under 1 % Ownership)
Elliot Anderson vs Brentford(A), £5.0m, TSB: 0.2%
Don’t be surprised to see Elliot Anderson’s name here, we had Ismaïla Sarr as the Ultra-Differential Pick last week who returned with 2 goals, and 1 assist to fetch a massive 17-point haul. Elliot Anderson has been one of the signings of the season for Forest who are currently 4th in the table. Anderson makes a great impact on this Forest side whose record is exceptional when Anderson starts this season- 7 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. Anderson has 5 FPL Assists from 15 appearances(11 Starts) this season. His underlying data has been really good since GW8- 0.44 xGI/90, 0.93 Big Chances Created/90, and 2.41 Shots/90.
Key Stats- Anderson
Since GW8, Anderson’s xA per 90 minutes of 0.32 is ranked second Among Midfielders priced £9.0 and below.
Top Midfielders for Big Chances Created per 90 Minutes(Since GW8)- Minimum 450 minutes:
| Heung Min Son | 1.34 |
| Elliot Anderson | 0.93 |
| Saka | 0.92 |
| Bruno Fernandes | 0.82 |
Anderson plays in a midfield two with Yates but still gets into good attacking positions when Forest have the ball as seen in the heatmap vs Villa below.
Anderson is also good for Bonus Points as his Bonus Points system score is right there among the Top Midfielders in the league.
Bonus Points System BPS/90 among Midfielders less than £9.0 this season- Minimum 900 minutes:
| Maddison | 35.06 |
| Mbeumo | 25.02 |
| Enzo Fernandes | 24.11 |
| Anderson | 23.12 |
| Bruno Fernandes | 22.92 |
Stats from Fantasy Football Hub. Subscribe now with a Free Trial for Opta stats, Heatmaps & more
So whenever he gets an attacking return he is likely to take home a Bonus Point or two as well. Anderson is also almost on all corners for Forest. The next 4 fixtures for Forest are also good for attackers- Brentford(A), Spurs(H), Everton(A), Wolves(A).
Anderson has taken 14 corners over the last 5 GWs. The next highest among Forest players is Elanga with 3 corners who is not a regular starter these days. There are good chances you get an assist return from a Milenkovic header goal as well from a corner.
Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW17:
FPL Midfielders Watch: Top Assets to Target for Gameweeks 17-19
FPL GW17 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More
FPL GW17 Tips – Budget Midfielders, Arsenal Defence & More
Sleeper Draft Fantasy GW17- Best Punts and Hidden Gems
Best FPL GW17 Defenders to Consider | Ait-Nouri Replacements
Link to all our FPL GW17 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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Srinivasan S
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