FPL GW12 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups

Welcome to our FPL GW12 Scout Picks blog! The last international break of the year is behind us (finally!), so now its time to turn our attention back to FPL. GW11 was a strange week, with it being a super high scoring round for some, and a very low one for others. Our Scout picks managed a huge 83 points, beating out the official FPL scout by 5 points and extending our lead to 7-4 in our favour, despite us getting the captaincy wrong again!

	GW1	GW2	GW3	GW4	GW5	GW6	GW7	GW8	GW9	GW10	GW11
AAFPL Team	84	65	92	44	59	42	59	26	72	35	83
Official FPL Team	64	96	77	46	54	39	44	46	71	55	78

Another week, another team, and we’re confident in our selection for this round of fixtures! As always, our Scout Picks will be based on the eye test, stats, and analysis. Let’s first take a look at the fixtures for FPL GW12.

GW12 Fixtures

Link to all our FPL GW12 blogs including scout picks, wildcard guide, best midfielders, best forwards, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW12 Scout Picks

FPL GW12 Scout Picks – Goalkeeper

The highest scoring goalkeeper in the game makes his first appearance for the AAFPL Scout picks team, with Onana (5.1m) having to wait almost a third of the season to get a mention in one of our Scout posts! United have kept 5 clean sheets this season, conceding just 12 goals, half of which came in their matches against Liverpool and Spurs. In his most recent match, against Leicester, he pulled off 5 saves, kept a clean sheet and bagged himself 2 bonus points, amassing a huge 9 points – we’re hoping for a similar return this week!

Amorim this, Amorim that – realistically they should beat Ipswich regardless of who their manager is. The Tractor Boys have created just 13.28xG across their first 11 Premier League matches, and scored just 12.

Ipswich attacking stats:

• 13.28xG (18th)
• 12 Goals (17th)
• 9.82 Shots/90 (20th)
• 3.0 SoT/90 (19th)

As mentioned United have a new manager now, so we’re betting on a new manager bounce in GW12, and hoping that he hits the ground running. Sporting, Amorim’s previous club, currently sit top of the Primeira Liga, having won every single game this season, and conceded just 5 goals. United have been fairly solid this season (defensively), and while a new system, probably involving a 3-at-the-back, will of course take time to adapt to, I wouldn’t expect Ipswich to cause them too many problems.

Further Read: FPL GW12 – Best Forwards Analysis | Time to Sell Haaland?

FPL GW12 Scout Picks – Defenders

Two new faces in Liverpool’s Bradley (4.7m) and Villa’s Digne (4.7m) join a returning Dalot (5.1m) to make up our 3 man defense for FPL GW12!

Dalot stays in the team despite disappointing with a 1 pointer in GW11, having been subbed off after 57 minutes by his manager – if he’d stayed on for just 5 more minutes then he would’ve secured some CS points!

Everything I wrote above about United’s defense also applies to Dalot, with the added bonus of the full-back potentially also offering some attacking returns. Despite only managing 1 attacking return so far this campaign, we’re confident that, under a new system, in a more advanced wing-back position, Dalot could quickly become a key FPL asset…

Trent suffered an injury in GW11, forcing him to withdraw from the England squad this international break, and he is highly unlikely to feature in this weekends game against Southampton. Liverpool play Real Madrid in mid-week and then City next weekend, so Slot is unlikely to risk Trent, even if he is back in training, meaning that Bradley should start in GW12.

Bradley has had very little game-time in the Prem this season, but recently demonstrated his capabilities on international duty with Northern Ireland, scoring and putting in a man of the match performance in their most recent match against Luxembourg. We must not forget that last season, for a period, many Liverpool fans were calling for Bradley to replace Trent as first choice, due to some outstanding performances in the Scouser’s absence.

Liverpool face Southampton in GW12, one of the worst attacking teams by both expected and actual data in the league. The Reds’ defensive record has been brilliant so far this season, and I would not expect the absence of Trent to cause too many issues for Slot’s team from a defensive point of view. Last season, in the league, Bradley averaged 0.23xA/90 and 0.1xG/90, pretty decent for a fullback! Of course his role in Slot’s new system will be different to the one he played under Klopp, but his natural attacking instincts are clear, and at such a cheap price he’s a great differential for GW12.

Finally we have Aston Villa’s Lucas Digne. Despite Villa only keeping 2 clean sheets in the league, we think that their defenders are a great option for GW12, in large part due to their favourable fixture against Palace. The Eagles have scored the 2nd fewest goals in the league (8), and have really struggled in front of goal without their talisman from last season Olise, who departed for Bayern Munich in the summer. Admittedly their xG tells a slightly different story, with them having created 15xG, a huge under performance.

Villa have been flying in the Champions league, but struggling in the Prem, something that was perhaps to be expected of a side lacking in squad depth. This perhaps explains why they have kept just 2 clean sheets in the league, and haven’t won a game since GW8…

Despite Villa’s difficult start to the season, Digne has been in fine form and has provided 3 FPL assists in the league already this season! The frenchman has been going under the radar for a long time now, perhaps due to Villa’s form in the league, but with some easier fixtures on the horizon, now is a great time to pick him up! He’s averaging 0.41xG/90, the highest in the Villa squad – that’s not a typo, he is statistically the most creative player in the villa team right now! In fact, his xA of 3.99 for the season suggests that, were it not for some poor finishing, he’d be one of the highest scoring defenders in FPL. With a good run of games after Chelsea in GW13, Digne is one player all managers should be looking at.

Further Read: FPL GW12 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats

FPL GW12 Scout Picks – Midfielders

Our midfield this week is comprised of Mbeumo (7.9m), Palmer (10.9m), Bruno (8.4m) and our Captain for GW12 – Mo Salah (12.9m). Let’s start with those yellow flags…

Mbeumo has been a constant in our team since GW6, and while his price has increased since then, he remains one of the best players in the game! He’s got a yellow flag as he pulled out of the Cameroon squad, but it’s not very clear why… He played a full 90 in GW11, so we’re going off the assumption that he is fit, and just pulled out to get a rest, or perhaps due to a small knock.

Mbeumo has produced 8 goals and 1 assist in 11 games this season, despite constantly having to change position and adapt his game due to rotation and injury to other members of the squad. Even with Wissa back he’s been in top form, with 3 goal contributions in his last 3 games. As I seem to write every week, a note of caution, he is over performing his xG big time – this run will end, it’s just a matter of when. That being said, while he’s in form, it would take a brave manager to go without him!

Bruno Fernandes also retains his place in the team, after delivering us a tasty 17 points against Leicester last GW. His underlying numbers have been great all season, so it’s fantastic to finally see those numbers being converted into goals, assists and ultimately FPL points. It remains to be seen how Fernandes will be deployed under Amorim, as a make-shift winger or perhaps in a deeper midfield role in the 3-4-3 that United’s new manager favours. Regardless Fernandes is, will be, and always has been a great FPL midfield pick – especially at that price!

Bruno Fernandes Attacking stats:

• 2 Goals – 3 Assists
• 0.43xG/90 – 0.3xA/90
• 3.29 Shots/90 – 2.13 KeyPasses/90

Next up is our second Yellow flagged midfielder – Cole Palmer! Chelsea’s talisman is the 2nd highest scoring midfielder in the game, only behind Salah, and has a very attractive fixture against Leicester in GW12. He was very much in the conversation for captaincy too, and is a great differential captain this week. It may seem like we’re targeting Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton every week – and that’s because we are; their defenses and attacks are really poor, so when a team like Chelsea, with a talent like Palmer play them it would be crazy not to.

His 0.95xGI/90 is awesome, and while he is out performing his underlying stats, he is one of the few players in the world who can maintain an xG or xA over performance throughout the season. Last season for example, he scored 22 goals from an xG of 17.83, and produced 11 assists from 11.87xA. Remember that expected data is a measure which is based on the ‘average’ player, and Cole Palmer is anything but average.

Finally we have our Captain – Mo Salah. The Egyptian king has been near unplayable in some games this season, and is the highest scoring player in the game by 23 points (Palmer on 84 and Haaland on 82). 8 goals and 6 assists across the first 11 games of the campaign is extraordinary, and he doesn’t look like he’s likely to slow down anytime soon, having helped Liverpool to dispatch of Villa easily, contributing a goal and an assist.

Liverpool are top of the league and that’s in large part down to Salah, who got a well deserved rest over the international break, and will be licking his lips at the prospect of playing Southampton in GW12. The Saints have conceded 21 goals from 25xGA, but with their starting goalkeeper Ramsdale likely out for this game they may well struggle to keep Liverpool out for long.

Further Read: Top FPL GW12 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

FPL GW12 Scout Picks – Forwards

NO HAALAND?!?!?! Yes that’s right reader, we’ve ditched Haaland, in a move that we will no doubt come to regret when he puts 10 past Spurs on Saturday evening. Instead our choice of forwards are: Watkins (9.0m), Pedro (5.5m) and Jackson (7.9m).

While he is no longer averaging close to 1.5xGI/90, Watkins is still racking up some great underlying numbers – 0.75xG/90 and 0.15xA/90 to be exact. Due to some poor finishing at the start of the season, he’s under performing his xG by about 2 goals, but we’re hopeful that his days of missing big chances are behind him, and that he’ll haul for us on Saturday at 15.00 when Villa play Palace.

Putting their 1-0 win against Spurs aside, Palace have been abysmal this season, missing chances and leaking goals left right and centre. On the surface their 15 goals against doesn’t seem all that bad, but their 19.89xGA paints a different picture. Watkins will surely fancy his chances of scoring this week, especially considering Villa are at home, and ending his 3 game goal drought!

Next up is Brighton’s Pedro, who, despite only playing 25 minutes City in GW11 and recently returning from an injury, managed to pick up a goal and an assist, leading his side to victory over Pep’s perennial title winners. There’s a debate to be had about Welbeck versus Pedro, but due to his instant impact against City I’d lean towards JP.

Pedro’s underlying numbers are actually significantly better than Welbeck’s. Welbeck’s 0.52xG/90 is clearly superior than Pedro’s 0.48xG/90 but when we look at their respective xA figures (0.06 for W and 0.32 for JP), Pedro’s expected goal involvement per 90 jumps up to around 0.8xGI/90, whereas Welbeck sits just below 0.6xGI/90. All things considered I can see the arguments for both, but for us JP is the best pick for GW12!

Finally we have Jackson. As we’re targeting Chelsea’s fixture against Leicester it made sense to go for an attacking double up. Madueke was an option, as his underlying data is fairly impressive, but we decided to go for Jackson as his numbers are in fact marginally better. It’s a 50/50 between the two of them, and knowing our luck Madueke will probably score a hat trick…

Jackson has been going under the radar a bit this season, scoring 6 goals and providing 3 assists, which is understandable when Cole Palmer’s getting all the hype. Jackson didn’t score in GW10 or GW11 against United and Arsenal, but Chelsea as a team struggled in both games, so this is not something that should concern owners or potential buyers.

Further Read: FPL GW12 Tips – Transfer Decisions, Hold or Sell Trent & More

Full FPL GW12 Scout Picks

Please note that our bench includes a 4.0m ‘keeper, a 2 x 4.0m defender, and a 4.5m midfielder, as all of the players selected are expected to start and have significant game-time in FPL GW12.

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW12

FPL GW12 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More
FPL GW12 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
FPL GW12 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
FPL GW12 Tips – Transfer Decisions, Hold or Sell Trent & More
FPL GW12: Player Performance Analysis by Position & Price Point
FPL GW12 – Best Forwards Analysis | Time to Sell Haaland?
FPL Midfielders Watch: Top Assets to Target for Gameweek 12-15
FPL GW12 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide 
FPL Gameweek 12 Transfer Tips- Buy, Hold, Sell Analysis
Sleeper Draft Fantasy GW12 – Best Punts and Hidden Gems

Link to all our FPL GW12 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 12 of the 2024/25 FPL Season?

We’ll be covering differential picks, transfer targets, Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Scout picks, Gameweek preview, Captaincy metrics, FPL GW12 tips, and more. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for all our blogs. We’ll also be posting regularly about the same on our social media accounts so follow us on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook and keep our notification ON.