Welcome to the FPL Gameweek 12 Captain Picks & metrics blog. This week there are strong captaincy candidates with good fixtures including Salah, Palmer, Bruno, Isak & Haaland which makes captaincy this week interesting. Let’s see who tops the captaincy metrics this week.
This season the metrics has a 6/11 return record. Last season the metrics finished with 560 points(26/38 returns). The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” in the 22/23 season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
Total metrics points: 10 + 34 + 34 + 26 + 12 + 4 + 4 + 4 + 12 + 4 + 4 = 148 pts
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Link to all our FPL GW12 blogs including scout picks, wildcard guide, best midfielders, best forwards, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW12 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW12 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Without a surprise, it’s Mo Salah for the 3rd consecutive week on top of the captaincy poll. Haaland is 2nd in our FPL GW12 Captaincy poll and will be up against a injury hit Spurs defence. Palmer is 3rd in the captaincy poll and will be up against Leicester City. GW11 hero Bruno Fernandes and Isak complete the top five in the captaincy poll this week.
Further Read:
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 12 Captain picks
Haaland comes out on top for underlying numbers with an xG of 5.28 and 25 Shots inside the Box from the last 6 games. He also has 9 Big Chances during this run which is the Highest among these players.
Salah is 2nd with an xG of 4.00 and is also joint second for big chances(7) in the last six games amongst all players.
Palmer is third just behind Salah with 3.92 xG, 15 Shots inside the Box, and 5 Big chances. He’s also created 16 chances which is the joint highest amongst the five players.
Isak comes 4th for underlying numbers with 2.00 xG, 14 Shots inside the Box, 7 Big Chances, and 5 Chances created.
Bruno Fernandes is last amongst the five players with an xG of 3.12, he’s had four big chances in the last six games and has also created 16 chances in the last six games which highlights his assist potential.
Further Read: FPL GW12 – Best Forwards Analysis | Time to Sell Haaland?
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Chelsea top the Team Underlying Data with 11.87 xG over the last 6 matches which is the highest amongst all teams.
Man City are 2nd with the Blues accumulating 10.84 xG over this period. They have only 14 Big Chances during the last six games & 12 teams have had more big chances than Man City. They are however joint second for shots inside the box(72) amongst all teams only behind Spurs(81).
Liverpool rank 3rd for Expected Goals with 10.36 xG, 20 Big Chances, and 51 Shots inside the box. The reds have the most big chances amongst the five teams.
Newcastle & Man United are 4th and 5th respectively with an xG of 9.69 & 7.93 in the last six games.
Further Read: FPL GW12 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW12
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Liverpool are top with a whopping 91% odds of at least 1 goal and 55% odds of scoring 2+ goals in FPL GW12 vs Southampton(a).
Chelsea are 2nd with 89% odds of at least 1 goal in the Gameweek and 44% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week against Leicester(A). Man City have a 83% odds of at least 1 goal in the Gameweek and a 52% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week against Spurs(H) taking the 3rd place,
Man United & Newcastle United are tied last in the table with Man United having 86% odds of at least 1 goal in the Gameweek and 38% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week against Ipswich(A). Newcastle United have a 83% odds of at least 1 goal in the Gameweek and a 42% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week against West Ham(H).
Further Read: FPL GW12 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 12 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Haaland & Salah are joint top in the projection rank table with Haaland having an anytime returns projection of 71% and a points projection of 7.7 in GW12. Salah has an anytime returns projection of 67% and a points projection of 8.1 in GW12.
Isak is 3rd and has 65% anytime returns & a 6.8 points projection at home against West Ham. Palmer is 4th with 64% anytime returns & a 5.9 points projection in GW12. Palmer’s projections are slightly lower as he’s predicted to play only 68 minutes by FFHUB points prediction model this week.
Bruno is last with an anytime returns projection of 52% and a points projection of 5.6.
Further Read: Top FPL GW12 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 12 Captaincy metrics
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). According to our captaincy metrics, the candidate with the lowest cumulative rank factor is the ideal captaincy option.
Salah & Haaland takes the top spot with the duo having a CRF of only 7. Palmer is 3rd with a CRF of 10. Isak is 4th with a CRF of 15 & Bruno Fernandes is last with a CRF of 15.
Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW12
FPL GW12 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More
FPL GW12 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
Top FPL Gameweek 12 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW12 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
FPL GW12 Tips – Transfer Decisions, Hold or Sell Trent & More
FPL GW12: Player Performance Analysis by Position & Price Point
FPL GW12 – Best Forwards Analysis | Time to Sell Haaland?
FPL Midfielders Watch: Top Assets to Target for Gameweek 12-15
FPL GW12 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide
FPL Gameweek 12 Transfer Tips- Buy, Hold, Sell Analysis
Sleeper Draft Fantasy GW12 – Best Punts and Hidden Gems
Link to all our FPL GW12 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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