Top FPL GW4 Differential Picks to Target Ahead of GW4 Deadline

The Differential Article continued with some Big Scores where 3 of our 6 picks returned with FPL Points.

• Bryan Mbeumo – 2 Goals, 14 Points
• Leif Davis – 1 Assist, 7 Points
• Antoine Semenyo – 1 Goal, 6 Points

That makes it 10/18 Picks who have returned FPL Points from our picks this Season.

In this article, we will be highlighting 5 Players who are less than 10% Owned and 1 Ultra Differential (less than 1% Owned) for FPL GW4 as of Thursday 12^th September, 2024. There are many more whom you guys can consider if you decide to not go with the 6 players mentioned below.

Link to all our FPL GW4 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

Top FPL GW4 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)

Andrew Robertson – Liverpool – £6.0 Defender – 6.8 % TSB

• While everyone is going for Trent, Luis Diaz, Salah & Jota, Robbo has remained under the radar of FPL managers. Liverpool look a much more controlled team under Slot and have kept 3 Clean Sheets with ease. The wise decision would be to double up on the Defence with Trent & Robbo seems the most obvious option.
• Robertson has become the Primary Corner taker for Liverpool and that has boosted his Chance creation numbers. He has an xA of 0.39 in the 3 Games. Besides Robbo has less competition on his side for now and is mostly completing 90 minutes.
• The best thing noticed in these 3 Games is how much Robbo has crashed into the box and should have ideally scored against Brentford where he racked up an xG of 0.30. Like Trent, attacking returns appear to be coming soon.

Matchup alert:

Forest have conceded 11 chances down their Right flank(Robertson’s side while attacking) compared to just 1 chance conceded on their left flank(TAA side). This should work well for Robbo with his later overlapping runs and entries into the box.

Further Read: FPL GW4 Scout Selection Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups

Yankuba Minteh – Brighton – £5.5 Midfielder – 2.0 % TSB

• The 1^st of our Brighton Wingers, Minteh has slotted to the Premier League seamlessly. 2 Assists in 3 Games and great performances in the 3 Games with an xG of 0.5 and an xA of 0.9.
• 4 Shots in the Box, 5 Key passes, 1 Big Chance, and 1 Big Chance created. Minteh has been Brighton’s most creative player with a share of corners and free kicks. He is also 3^rd for Shots in the box among his teammates.
• Facing a leaky Ipswich who have looked defensively suspect so far, especially away from home, Brighton should go for the jugular against Ipswich to keep their undefeated run intact. This could be the perfect opportunity for Minteh to explode onto the Premier League landscape.

Further Read: Top FPL Gameweek 4 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics

Kaoru Mitoma – Brighton – £6.6 Midfielder – 9.0 % TSB

• Mitoma has returned with a vengeance after missing most of last season with injury. He has got a Goal and an Assist in the 1^st 3 Games and has played close to 90 minutes regularly easing fears of lack of fitness.
• Mitoma has had 5 Shots in the Box, which is the 2^nd most after Welbeck in the team. He has got 2 Big Chances and played 3 Key passes and looks like a longer-term safe pick as compared to the more explosive but short-term pick Minteh.

Further Read: FPL GW4 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide

Jean Phillipe Mateta – Crystal Palace – £7.4 Forward – 4.2 % TSB

• Could this be the week when we say the Mateta from the end of last season emerge again? He has slowly but surely regained his fitness after his stint at the Olympics and with Palace capturing Nketiah, Mateta will have a point to prove to Glasner, why he should remain the 1^st choice striker for Palace.
• Playing against one of the defensively weakest sides Leicester, Mateta could have a field day in this fixture if he can convert the chances that Eze will be supplying to him in this game. Leicester have conceded the 4^th most shots on Target in the League so far this season.

Further Read: FPL Fixture Swing Analysis from GW6- Teams and Players to Target

Daniel Munoz – Crystal Palace – £5.0 Defender – 3.5 % TSB

• Perhaps, this is the fixture will turn the fortunes of Palace this season. Palace were 5^th for xGC conceded last season and should have a great chance of a Clean Sheet against Leicester this weekend. They are 4^th favorite to keep a Clean Sheet this Gameweek (40 % chance).
• Munoz has got an Assist in Gameweek 1 and has played 2 Key passes so far this season. He should have got more attacking returns last season and my hunch says a Goal is coming soon for Munoz. He is great going forward and has a great chance of Defensive returns this Gameweek.

Matchup alert:

As seen below in Munoz’s heatmap, he has been very attacking from the right side and taking up good positions. Leicester have conceded 15 chances down their Left Flank this season- Joint 2nd Highest among all the teams in the League. This Matchup should work out well for Munoz!

Further Read: FPL GW4 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats

FPL GW4 Ultra Differential Pick (Under 1 % Ownership)

Harvey Barnes – Newcastle – £6.4 Midfielder – 0.7 % TSB

• Barnes looks to have usurped Jacob Murphy from the Starting 11 and repaid Eddie Howe’s faith by getting a Goal and 9 Points against Spurs. That followed a lively cameo against Bournemouth where he got an Assist and should have got a Goal in the last 30 minutes.
• Wolves have not had a good defensive start to the season with 48 shots conceded, 35 in the Box, and 19 on target. Add to that, they now have injury doubts over Mosquera who has been their best Defender this season, this could turn ugly for Wolves.
• Barnes has had a healthy xG of 0.42 and an xA of 0.32 from just 1 Start and 2 Cameos and will look to establish himself in the Newcastle first team after an injury-hit last season.

That’s it for Gameweek 4. We will be back with 6 More Differentials next Gameweek where we will be hoping to get some positive returns from our current selected Differentials for Gameweek 4.

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW4

FPL Gameweek 4 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Top FPL GW4 Differential Picks to Target Ahead of GW4 Deadline
FPL GW4 Wildcard Team & Drafts To Consider | Wildcard Guide
Top FPL Gameweek 4 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW4 Scout Selection Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups
FPL Fixture Swing Analysis from GW6- Teams and Players to Target
Sleeper Draft Fantasy GW4- Best Punts and Hidden Gems
FPL GW4 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
FPL GW4 Tips- Salah, Isak, Gordon, Injuries, Brighton Picks, etc
FPL GW4 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

Link to all our FPL GW4 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 4 of the 2024/25 FPL Season?

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