FPL GW3 Scout Selection Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups

Welcome to our FPL GW3 Scout Selection blog! Despite a decent haul of 65 points in GW2, we must unfortunately admit defeat, after the official FPL Scout’s team hauled a whopping 96 points thanks (largely) down to an outstanding performance from Chelsea’s Cole Palmer…

But as a wise old FPL manager once told me: It’s a Marathon, not a Sprint! We’re 1 – 1 with the Official FPL Scout’s team so let’s make it 2 – 1 to us with a strong performance in FPL GW3!

	GW1	GW2
AllAboutFPL Team	84	65
Official FPL Team	64	96

As always, our Scout Picks will be based on the eye test, stats, analysis and in this case also Pre-Season. Let’s first take a look at the fixtures for FPL GW3.

GW3 Fixtures

Link to all our FPL GW3 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW3 Scout Picks

FPL GW3 Scout Selection – Goalkeeper

Flekken (£4.5m) is our ‘keeper for GW3, with an attractive fixture against relegation favorites Southampton at home for their third PL match of the new season. While their defensive numbers so far this campaign have not been stellar, the Bees had the 7th best defensive record (by xGA) last season, and the 6th best (by xGA) the season before! Frankly (pun intended), their manager knows how to coach a good defense.

On the other hand, their opponent for FPL GW3 is newly promoted Southampton, who have scored 0 goals so far this season (from an xG of 2.17). The Saint’s managed just 5 shots and 0.14 xG against Forest in GW2, with most of their 2.17xG coming from GW1 when they were playing against a ten men Newcastle. Based on their opening two performances of the campaign, they look like a team to target.

While some may question Flekken’s shot stopping ability, the quality of the players and system in front of him greatly outweigh this. Last season, according to xGA Brentford had the 7th best defense, conceding 60.26xGA (marginally worse than Everton and Crystal Palace), but in reality conceded the 7th most goals in the league, or, according to the expected data, around 5 more than they should have.

This suggests that Flekken is a below-average shot stopper, however, it should be noted that last season was the first time in his career that the Netherland’s keeper’ had a ‘negative PSxG+/-‘, so last year was probably an outlier and we can expect him to go back to being an average shot-stopper this year (so far this season he has a positive PSxG), thus instantly improving Brentford’s defense, and making their defenders (and GK) very enticing FPL options.

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FPL GW3 Scout Selection – Defenders

Our 3 man defensive unit this week consists of two premiums, and one budget defender – Liverpool’s TAA (£7.0m), Arsenal’s Saliba (£6.0m) and Fulham’s Robinson (£4.6m). Let’s start with Trent.

Slot’s Liverpool have conceded just 0.8xGA so far this season, the lowest of any team in the PL. Yes, of course, we should mention that the 2 games they have played have been against ‘weaker’ opposition in Brentford and Ipswich, so this week’s game against a stronger team in Manchester United should prove a harder test. As mentioned in last weeks article, Slot has a great record when it comes to coaching defenses, and, as expected, he has (so far) been able to implement a very solid defensive structure at Liverpool in a short space of time.

Manchester United on the other hand, Trent’s opponent in GW3, have conceded 2 goals in 2 games, and looked fairly shakey towards the end of their GW2 fixture against Brighton. And while Liverpool have not won at Old Trafford in their last two visits in the league (1L, 1D), the 0-5 and 2-4 wins that Liverpool achieved at the theater of dreams are still in fairly recent memory (meaning I remember them).

Trent is the most creative defender in the league, and proved that in GW1 against Ipswich and GW2 against Brentford, creating 7 chances and taking 3 shots across the 2 games, accruing an xGI of 1.66 in his first two PL matches of the campaign – he’s worth the price tag for sure. While United will be by no means push-overs, Trent’s form, and Liverpool’s defensive solidity means that he makes the team for the 3rd GW in a row.

Most Big Chances Created so far:

Saliba is the 2nd most expensive defender in this team, and, similarly to Trent, makes the cut due to his team’s defensive prowess. Arsenal and Liverpool are the only teams who are yet to concede a goal so far this season, so their defenders should evidently be on our shortlists. Due to the purchase of Califiori, Gabriel’s position in the team long-term could be under threat, meaning that Saliba is the best choice for our FPL teams, as he has less competition for his place in the team.

Neither he, nor Gabriel, are particularly offensive players – they both offer similar threats aerially from corners and set-pieces, and there is very little separating the two in underlying data, which is why we’ve gone for the Frenchman. Arsenal play Brighton at home this week, and while Hürzeler’s team have been playing good football and are unbeaten after 2 matches, having scored 5 goals and conceded just 1, one would expect them to struggle against title contenders Arsenal.

Our final scout selection pick for defense is Fulham’s Robinson, a popular FPL pick at 13% ownership at time of writing. After a huge 7 point haul against Leicester in GW2, many will be considering the English full-back, who bagged an assist and 2 Bonus Points in his most recent premier league game. In GW3, Fulham face another promoted side in Ipswich, the team with the lowest xG in the league, who have scored just once and conceded 6 in their first two matches back in the Premier League.

Admittedly Ipswich have had 2 tough opponents in the form of Liverpool and City, but nonetheless, they are clearly a team who will struggle in England’s top-flight this year, so should be targeted as a fixture. Robinson, as mentioned, does also possess decent attacking capabilities, creating 2 chances, against Leicester, and playing 6 passes into the final third. He’s a great budget pick for GW3 and beyond.

Further Read: FPL GW3 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide

FPL GW3 Scout Selection – Midfielders

Our FPL GW3 scout selection for midfield comprises 5 players, all from different clubs. ESR (£5.6m), Palmer (£10.5m) and Mbeumo (£7.0m) make their debuts for the AAFPL Scout Selection team, while Eze (£7.0m) and Jota (£7.6m) retain their places for the third GW in a row. Let’s start with the returning players.

Jota (£7.6) scored in GW1 and assisted in GW2, so far having accrued 1.5xG over his first two games of the new season. So why have we picked him again for GW3? Put simply, Jota is playing for one of the best attacking teams in the league (highest xG of any team so far), is playing out of position (as a striker), and costs just £7.6m. He also has a proven track record of scoring goals in this league when fit, averaging over 0.5xG/90 across his time at Liverpool.

Currently he is not a minutes risk, and is in great form, so even though the fixture is not ‘ideal’, due to his price, position, nailed-ness and form, for me he’s a must have, especially as we haven’t selected Salah and could do with some Liverpool cover other than TAA.

Eze has been so unlucky not to return so far this season. He had a goal ruled out in GW1, and then proceeded to create 4 chances and take 5 shots in GW2, hitting the woodwoork once and missing 1 big chance. We know the quality he and Palace possess, and his performances have demonstrated that he is still a great FPL pick, despite the departure of Olise.

Mbeumo makes the GW3 Scout Selection team due mainly to his fixture this gameweek. As mentioned in the GK section of this post, Brentford play Southampton in FPL GW3, a fixture which is proving to be essential to target. The Cameroon international has consistently averaged over 0.5xGI/90 across his PL career, and has been electric so far this campaign despite the tough opposition Brentford faced in both GW1 and GW2. While teammate Wissa was the star of the show against Palace in GW1, Mbeumo had an excellent game, creating 3 chances, 1 big chance and taking 1 shot (which he scored). Great fixture, proven goalscorer, good price, what’s not to love!

With Toney also likely to leave and not playing, Mbeumo is an excellent pick for this week as he performs better without Toney!

Mbeumo with Toney vs Mbeumo without Toney since 2022/23:

• Starts: 35 vs 25
• Goals- 5 vs 14
• Assists- 7 vs 9
• FPL Points per game: 3.37 vs 6.56

Stats are from FFHUB -> Subscribe now with 50% off for Opta stats, Heatmaps, Player Comparisons, AI Transfer Suggestions, FPL Planners & more

ESR and Palmer both got attacking returns in GW2, and have favourable fixtures in GW3, meaning that they complete the midfield of our FPL Scout Selection team for GW3. I’d also like to point out that we did had included ESR in our first FPL GW2 Scout Selection draft team, but had to remove him following the news of Solanke’s injury and a restructure to our Scout Picks team, but this week we’re backing him!

While Chelsea behind the scenes are a mess, on the pitch they seem to be clicking, and adapting fairly quickly to Moresca’s new style of play. While Chelsea massively out-performed their xG in the game against Wolves in GW2 (1.68xG / 6 Goals), Palmer’s quality is undoubtable, and with a game against Palace, who have conceded the 4th most goals in the league so far this season (4 GA), and have recently lost key defender Andersen to Fulham, ‘Cold’ Palmer has the potential to haul again in GW3.

Further Read: FPL GW3 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats

FPL GW3 Scout Selection – Forwards

Once again, Haaland (£15.0m) makes the team, and retains the captaincy for GW3 after a Hatrick in GW2. This pick needs no explanation, he’s the best striker in the league, playing for the best team in the league with a decent fixture, he’s an excellent choice for captaincy in GW3.

The other striker in our team is Havertz (£8.1m) of Arsenal. The German is playing as a striker for the other best team in the league, and has so far this season scored once and assisted once. His xGI of over 0.7/90 is one of the best in the league (although it is a small sample size), and he is looking much more clinical than he was at points last season. Arsenal’s number 29 managed 20 goal involvements last season (13G, 7A) despite starting the season as a midfielder, so will be looking to improve on that number this time around.

As mentioned above, Brighton are on a roll under their new manager, but Havertz’ movement could cause real problems for their defense, which is yet to come up against a team who love to dominate the ball as Arsenal do. Brighton had over 60% and just under 50% in their first two matches of the PL campaign, but will be much more ball starved against the Gunners, which could cause them some serious problems.

The Seagulls conceded 9 shots against Everton and 11 shots against United, if they concede the same number against a better team (like Arsenal for example) who have better players (Saka, Odegaard, Havertz etc.) they will be much more at risk of conceding than they were in the first two GWs.

While Isak, Wood and Muniz are all good picks for GW3, we feel that Havertz could be a great pick, as he offers Arsenal cover at a cheaper price than the likes of Saka and Odegaard, whilst also occupying more central (but slightly deeper) positions on the pitch.

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 3 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell

Full GW3 Scout Picks Team

Please note that our bench includes a 4.0m ‘keeper, 2 x 4.0m defender and a 4.5m midfielder, as all of the players selected are expected to start and have significant game-time in FPL GW2. This leaves us with £0.5m itb.

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW3

Premier League Penalty & Set Piece Takers | 2024/25 PL Season
FPL Gameweek 2 Stats Summary & Key Notes
FPL GW3 Wildcard Guide- Pros, Cons, Players to Target and Best Drafts
FPL GW3 Scout Selection Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups
FPL GW3 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
FPL GW3 Tips- Haaland, Nkunku Problem, Best Budget Assets, Wildcard Planning, etc
FPL GW3 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

Link to all our FPL GW3 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 3 of the 2024/25 FPL Season?

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