Welcome to the last captaincy metrics blog of the season, The popular FPL Gameweek 38 captain picks include Haaland, Palmer, Son, Olise, and Salah. Let’s see who amongst the five players tops the captaincy metrics for the last time this season, will it be Haaland or someone else?
The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” last season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
This season the metrics has a 26/37 returns record
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Total metrics points: 556 points (26+4+14+40+12+12+4+30+16+16+2+32+14+14+4+26*+6+4*+6+32*+6+26*+10+12+10+12*+16*+4+14+2+16+20*+6+16+42+30)
Link to all our FPL GW38 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW38 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW38 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Haaland without any surprise tops the captaincy poll this week and will be against West Ham at home. A win will give Man City the title for the fourth consecutive season. Palmer who is the highest-scoring FPL asset this season(238 pts) is second in the poll and will be playing against a Bournemouth side who are on the beach.
Son is 3rd playing against a relegated Sheffield United with a Europa League spot in line. Salah is 4th in what will be Klopp’s last game as Liverpool manager and Olise the man in red-hot form is 5th ahead of facing Villa who are also on the beach having secured Champions League football.
Further Read: Top FPL GW38 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 38 Captain picks
Haaland is top of the table with an xG of 7.30 in the last six games, Haaland has also had 22 shots inside the box and 13 big chances which is the highest amongst the five players.
Palmer is 2nd ahead of Son registering an xG of 5.58 in the last six games along with 8 big chances, and 12 goal attempts in the box. The Chelsea attacker also has created 16 chances in the last six games which is the highest amongst the five players in comparison.
Spurs attacker Son is third with an xG of 2.60, he has also registered 8 shots inside the box, and has created 13 chances in the last six games.
Salah is only 4th with four big chances in the last six games and an xG of 2.26. He has however had 15 shots inside the box which is the 2nd highest amongst the five players in comparison.
Olise is last with an xG of 1.68 in the last six games. The Crystal Palace attacker has created 11 chances and has registered 9 goal attempts in the box.
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 38 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Man City have registered an xG of 15.93 during the last six games and take up the top spot. They have had 77 shots inside the box(2nd highest amongst the 5 teams) and 24 big chances which is also the highest amongst the five teams in the table.
Chelsea are 2nd in the table with an xG of 12.77. The Magpies have also registered 61 goal attempts in the box and had 22 big chances in the last six games.
Liverpool are 3rd in the table with an xG of 12.76, Klopp’s team have also registered 91 shots inside the box (Highest amongst the 5 teams) and 17 big chances in the last six games.
Crystal Palace are 4th in the table with an xG of 10.70, with 19 big chances and 58 goal attempts in the box.
Spurs are 5th with an xG of only 10.45 and have had 19 big chances in the last six games along with just 57 goal attempts in the box.
Further Read: Top FPL GW38 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW38
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Man City are top with a 96% odds of at least 1 goal in the double gameweek and a 75% odds of scoring 2+ goals in FPL GW38 vs West Ham. The hammers have conceded a whopping 24 big chances in the last six games which is the highest in the PL!
Liverpool are second have a 95% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 71% odds of scoring 2+ goals vs Wolves.
Spurs are 3rd with a 92% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 60% odds of scoring 2+ goals vs Sheffield United
Chelsea have 92% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 55% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week taking the fourth spot.
Crystal Palace are 5th in the table and have 86% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 38% odds of scoring 2+ goals in FPL DGW37.
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 38 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 38 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Haaland is top of the projection rank table with an anytime returns projection of 78% and a 8.7 points projection in FPL Gameweek 38
Salah takes the 2nd spot with an anytime returns projection of 71% and a 7.5 points projection ahead of GW38
Palmer takes the 3rd spot with an anytime returns projection of 62% and a points projection of 6.2
Son takes the 4th spot having an anytime returns projection of 56% and a points projection of 6.1
Olise takes the last spot with the Crystal Palace attacker having an anytime returns projection of 50% and a points projection of 5.1
Further Read: Top FPL GW38 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 38 Captaincy metrics
Haaland comfortably takes the top spot with a cumulative rank factor(CRF) of 4 which is the least possible CRF. Salah and Palmer are joint 2nd with a CRF of 11. Son takes the 4th spot with a CRF of 15, Olise is last with a CRF of 19.
Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW38
FPL GW38 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Top FPL GW38 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW38 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Top FPL Gameweek 38 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL Gameweek 38 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Link to all our FPL GW38 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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