FPL returned in style with GW17 being a high-scoring one with popular players all returning including the likes of Haaland and Salah who both returned 13 and 12 points respectively. As this is the festive period, we have deadlines coming quick and fast. In this blog let’s analyze the Top FPL Gameweek 18 Captain Picks and see who is the best amongst them based on our captaincy metrics.
The metrics had a 30/38 “returns record” last season and so far has a 13/16 “returns record” this season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week. Metrics total points so far: 290 points(24+10+12+34+34+18+12+46+12+4+6+26+14+10+2+26)
Link to all our FPL GW18 blogs including Fixtures to target, Predicted GW18 Lineups, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, transfer trends, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW18 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Haaland as usual dominates the votes with over 80% of the votes. Salah after hauling in GW17 is second with close to 10% of the votes. Kane and Rashford, are 3rd and 4th respectively in the poll. Mitrovic and KDB finish joint 5th in the votes and we have decided to go with Mitrovic for the captaincy metrics considering the fact that he’s a higher owned player amongst FPL managers in comparison with KDB.
Further Read: FPL GW18 Tips – Transfer Trends and Best Transfer Combinations
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 18 Captain picks
Mitrovic has registered more shots inside the box(30) in the last six games amongst the five players. Haaland dominates the other metrics with a whopping xG of 5.33 in the last 6 games. Since all of them are goal scorers the gap is tight amongst all of them with MItrovic(4.20) edging Salah(3.79) in terms of xG by a small margin. Mitrovic finishing 2nd in this table is an exciting prospect with Fulham having a double next week!
Further Read: FPL GW18 Differential Picks to Consider | FPL GW18 Preview
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Liverpool(10.96) topped the table last week but this time around, Man City(11.74) edge past them with a higher xG. However the big chances column is still dominated by Liverpool who have had 25 big chances in the last 6 games. Fulham having better numbers than Spurs and Man United bodes well for Mitrovic, Fulham(10.92) missed out finishing 2nd by a slender margin of 0.04 xG which shows they are creating quality chances every week and Mitrovic is a direct beneficiary of the same.
Further Read: Best Reece James Replacements ahead of FPL GW18
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW18
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use Drafthound’s odds for a Team scoring at least One goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.5 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
The odds are supremely in favor of Man City who are at home to a struggling Everton side. Man City have a whopping 93% chance of scoring at least one goal and 64% chance of scoring 2+goals. Salah and Liverpool’s odds(91% odds of at least one goal and 52% odds of 2+ goals) have much improved this week as they face a injury hit Leicester side who looked flat against Newcastle in GW17. Fulham(4th), Spurs(3rd) and Man United(5th) are all closely packed and have slightly lower odds compared to Man City and Liverpool
Further Read: Predicted GW18 Lineups of All 20 Premier League Teams
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 18 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Haaland once again dominates the projections with a huge points projection of 9.9 and 83% chance of anytime returns. Kane edges Salah for the second spot with a points projection of 8, 0.1 more than Salah(7.9). Mitrovic(4th) and Rashford(5th) have decent projections but not anywhere close to the other three.
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 18 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 18 Captaincy metric analysis
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
Unsurprisingly, it is Erling Haaland, who comes out on top with a CRF Value of 4. 4 is the lowest possible CRF and Haaland once again has got a CRF of 4!
Salah is 2nd with a CRF of 10 and Mitrovic finishes above Rashford and Kane with a CRF of 13.
As usual you have your confirmation bias, for Haaland as a captain. Let’s hope the upcoming doubles makes captaincy a tad bit more challenging, fun and interesting:)
Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW18
FPL GW18 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
FPL GW18 Tips – Transfer Trends and Best Transfer Combinations
Top FPL Gameweek 18 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Best Reece James Replacements ahead of FPL GW18
FPL GW18 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down Key Dilemmas
FPL Gameweek 18 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW18 Scout Picks with Justifcation Based on Stats
FPL GW18 Differential Picks to Consider | FPL GW18 Preview
Predicted GW18 Lineups of All 20 Premier League Teams
Players close to a suspension ahead of FPL GW18
FPL Gameweek 18 Stream
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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 18 of the 2022/23 FPL Season?
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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