Welcome to the FPL Gameweek 4 Captaincy metrics blog. This week is an interesting one for captaincy as Liverpool face newly promoted Burnley(A). The top FPL Gameweek 4 Captain Picks include Haaland, Salah, Ekitike, Joao Pedro, and Mateta. Let’s see who comes out on top of the captaincy metrics.
This season, we have a 2/3 returns record. Last season, the metrics finished with 686 pts(26/38 returns), the metrics had a “26/38 returns record” in the 23/24 season, 31/37 “returns record” in the 22/23 season, and “30/38 returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
Total metrics points: 14 + 4 + 18 = 36 points
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Link to all our FPL GW4 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, best forwards, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW4 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW4 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Mo Salah tops the captaincy metrics with 42% of the votes and will be facing Burnley. Haaland(vs Kosovo), who scored 5 goals in one game during the INTL break, is 2nd in the captaincy poll with 17% of the votes. Ekitike is 3rd in the captaincy poll with 8% of the votes, Isak is not expected to star,t which means Ekitike’s minutes aren’t a concern in the short term.
Arne Slot on Isak in the pre-Burnley press conference: Don’t expect Alex(Isak) to be on for 90 minutes in every game over the next few weeks. He missed pre-season, so it’s going to be a challenge. But we signed him for six years, not the next few weeks. Fans have to bear that in mind if they see him not playing.
The top five in the captaincy poll is completed by Joao Pedro, who’ll be facing Brentford(A,) and Mateta, who’ll be facing Sunderland(H).
Marseca on Joao Pedro: There is a “question mark” over Moises Caicedo, Joao Pedro, Estevao, and Andrey Santos for Saturday’s game because of their demanding South American international break.
Further Read: FPL Fixture Swing Analysis – Best Fixture Runs to Target
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 4 Captain picks
Haaland tops the table, with 21 shots in the box, 9 big chances, and an xG of 5.95 in the last six games. Joao Pedro is 2nd with an xG of 3.52 in the last six games, he’s also had six big chances and 14 goal attempts in the box, which is 2nd amongst the five players.
Ekitike is 3rd with an xG of 2.94, do note that since he’s new in the Premier League, we have used his xG from his last three games for Eintracht Frankfurt. 1.6/2.94 of his xG came from his last three games in the 24/25 season.
Mateta is 4th with an xG of 2.62 and has had 5 big chances in the last six games.
Salah is only 5th with an xG of 1.54 in the last six games, he’s had only 0.31 xG in the first three games of this season and hasn’t had a big chance yet!
Further Read: 2025/26 FPL Chip Strategy Guide – First Half of the Season
Underlying numbers of candidate’s teams
Man City have registered an xG of 12.19 during the last six games and take up the top spot. They have had 57 shots inside the box and 14 big chances during the period.
Crystal Palace are 2nd in the table with an xG of 11.21. The Eagles have also registered 49 goal attempts in the box and had 20 big chances in their last six games.
Liverpool are 3rd in the table with an xG of 10.19. Slot’s team have registered 56 shots inside the box and 16 big chances in their last six games.
Chelsea are 5th in the table with an xG of 7.95 and have had 16 big chances and 46 goal attempts in the box.
Further Read: FPL GW4 Wildcard Team – Tips, Players to Target and Best Drafts
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW4
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Liverpool are top with a 89% odds of at least 1 goal in gameweek one and 48% odds of scoring 2+ goals in FPL GW3 against Burnley(A).
Chelsea are 3rd with a 82% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 29% odds of scoring 2+ goals in their second away game of the season against Brentford.
Crystal Palace are also 4th and have 82% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 27% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week against newly promoted Sunderland(H)
Man City are also 4th with a 76% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 33% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week against Man United(H).
Further Read: Top FPL GW4 Differential Picks to Target Ahead of GW4 Deadline
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 4 Captain Picks
In the fourth phase of the article, I used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Salah is first with an anytime returns projection of 68% and an 8.0 points projection in FPL Gameweek 4 vs Burnley(A)
Haaland is second and has an anytime returns projection of 68% and a 7.2 points projection vs Man United(H)
Mateta is third with an anytime returns projection of 63% and a points projection of 6.7.
Ekitike takes the 4th spot having an anytime returns projection of 60% and a points projection of 5.7 vs Burnley(A)
Joao Pedro takes the last spot with the Chelsea attacker having an anytime returns projection of 48% and a points projection of 5.4 against Brentford(A).
Further Read: FPL GW4 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 4 Captaincy metrics
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). According to our captaincy metrics, the candidate with the lowest cumulative rank factor is the ideal captaincy option.
Haaland tops the captaincy metrics with a CRF of 8, Salah is second with a CRF of 10. Ekitike is 3rd with a cumulative rank factor of 11, Mateta is 4th with a CRF of 13, and Pedro is last with a CRF of 15.
Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW4
FPL GW4 Free Hit Guide – Tips, Players to Target and Best Drafts
2025/26 FPL Chip Strategy Guide – First Half of the Season
Top FPL Gameweek 4 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW4 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups
Top FPL GW4 Differential Picks to Target Ahead of GW4 Deadline
FPL GW4 Predicted Lineups, Injuries & Press Conference Updates
FPL Gameweek 4 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL Fixture Swing Analysis – Best Fixture Runs to Target
FPL GW4 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
FPL GW4 Wildcard Team – Tips, Players to Target and Best Drafts
Link to all our FPL GW4 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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AK - Anurag Khetan
Latest posts by AK - Anurag Khetan (see all)
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