Top FPL GW38 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

The Differential Article continued with some Big Scores, where 2 of our 6 picks returned with FPL Points. 

•  Jamie Vardy – 1 Goal, 2 Bonus – 8 Points
• Dwight McNeil – 1 Assist – 5 Points

That makes it 107/222 Picks who have returned FPL Points from our picks this Season.

In this article, we will be highlighting 5 Players who are less than 10% owned and 1 Ultra Differential (less than 1% Owned) for all of you as of Thursday 22^nd May, 2025. There are many more whom you guys can consider if you decide to not go with the 6 players mentioned below.

Link to all our FPL GW38 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, free hit drafts, and more. Completely free to access as well!

Top FPL GW38 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)

Evanilson – Bournemouth – 5.8 Forward – 4.5 % TSB – 

• A very solid debut season for Evanilson who has 10 Goals and 5 Assists in only 26 starts. He has great stats with 32 Shots on Target, 63 Shots in the Box and 22 Big Chances. Creativity wise he has played 25 Key passes and created 3 Big Chances. He is currently predicted with a 49 % chance to score in Gameweek 38, which is the the 3^rd best. He could also be on penalties if Kluivert is benched/subbed. 
• Leicester have the 3^rd worst xGC, have conceded the 3^rd most Big Chances, and the 3^rd most Goals in the League. They also have conceded the 3^rd most Shots in the Box and the 2^nd most Shots on Target. They are also terrible at defending crosses and headed attempts. Evanilson is the main aerial threat from the Bournemouth attackers.
• With nothing much to play for, this could be a very high-scoring game as Bournemouth aim to sign off their best campaign in style. He could be a great replacement if Isak does not play in GW38.

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 38 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell

Ben White – Arsenal – 6.1 Defender – 2.8 % TSB –

• The last game for Arsenal means nothing much in terms of relevance. Except Arsenal will be looking to keep a Clean Sheet so that Raya can win the Golden Glove Award, Raya is currently tied with Sels for 13 Clean Sheets. White should be in line to start because of Arsenal’s defensive injuries.
• White has a good record of Goal scoring and could fancy his chances against Southampton, who are the worst at defending set-pieces. Southampton have had the fewest Big Chances in the League, generated the least xG in the League, and have scored the fewest Goals in the League. 
• His potential to get returns on both sides of the pitch should make White a tempting option for people looking for a replacement for Saliba in Gameweek 38.

Further Read: FPL GW38 – Fixtures & Players to Target for Gameweek 38

Cody Gakpo – Liverpool – 7.2 Forward – 5.1 % TSB – 

• Gakpo has survived Slot’s rotation in the last 3 Gameweeks and is one of only 2 players, along with Salah, who have started the last 5 games for Liverpool. Gakpo has been in great form at home games, where he has scored in 8 consecutive starts. Slot hinted that he would unleash the real Liverpool in Gameweek 38 before they lift the trophy at home, so Gakpo does seem nailed to start this Gameweek.
• He has 10 Goals and 4 assists this season. He has good stats with 23 Shots on Target, 41 Shots in the Box, and 12 Big Chances. He has also created 9 Big Chances and played 36 key passes for his teammates. He could be a great replacement if Isak does not play in Gameweek 38.

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 38 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell

Anthony Gordon – Newcastle – 7.4 Midfielder – 7.8 % TSB – 

• With Isak not fully fit & Newcastle needing to win to qualify for the Champions League, Gordon could finish with a flurry against his former side. Gordon has had a middling season with only 6 Goals and 6 Assists so far. His stats, however, have been impressive with 19 Shots on Target, 39 Shots in the Box, and 15 Big Chances. He has also created 6 Big Chances and played 51 key passes for his teammates. 
• Everton will be missing both Tarkowski & Branthwaite this Gameweek, and that could seriously harm their Clean Sheets prospects when they turn up to St. James Park, which would literally be bouncing for the last day of the season. 
• Newcastle also have the best recent xG in the league, and they’ve scored nearly twice as many goals at home as compared to away.  Everton also tend to concede a lot of shots from their right side, and Gordon should benefit from this positional weakness in this game.

Further Read: FPL GW38 – Fixtures & Players to Target for Gameweek 38

Gabriel Martinelli – Arsenal – 6.5 Midfielder – 2.9 % TSB – 

• Martinelli has 8 Goals and 4 assists this season. He has started the last 6 Gameweeks and has 2 Goals over that period. Martinelli has 22 Shots on Target, 46 Shots in the Box, and 15 Big Chances. He has created 6 Big Chances and played 37 key passes for his teammates. 
• Martinelli will play the worst team in the League and the 2^nd worst Team in the history of the Premier League. Southampton are also bottom for all Defensive Metrics such as Shots conceded, Shots in the Box conceded, Shots on Target conceded, Big Chances conceded, Goals conceded, and xGC. They also have the worst home xGC in the League.

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 38 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell

FPL GW38 Ultra Differential (Under 1 % Ownership)

Marcus Tavernier – Bournemouth – 5.4 Midfielder – 0.2 % TSB – 

• Tavernier has now played 3 consecutive 90 minutes in the last 3 Gameweeks. For someone who has started only 19 Games this season, Tavernier has double digits for attacking returns with 3 Goals and 7 Assists. He has had 15 Shots on Target, 24 Shots in the Box, and 8 Big Chances. He has created 7 Big Chances and played 38 key passes for his teammates. He has underperformed in terms of xG but overperformed in terms of xA.
• Leicester have the 3^rd worst xGC, have conceded the 3^rd most Big Chances, and the 3^rd most Goals in the League. They also have conceded the 3^rd most Shots in the Box and the 2^nd most Shots on Target. With nothing much to play for, this could be a very high-scoring game as Bournemouth aim to sign off their best campaign in style.

That’s it for Gameweek 38. Just like that, another Premier League season comes to an end. This has been a fun series to pick Lower Owned Players and watching them get massive hauls or fail miserably. Again, a huge thanks to Srini & Surya for giving me the opportunity to write this series this season. Will see you all again soon when the Premier League resumes in August. Have a great summer ahead!!

Further reads from AllAboutFPL ahead of FPL GW38:

FPL Gameweek 38 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW38 – Fixtures & Players to Target for Gameweek 38
Top FPL GW38 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW38 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More

Link to all our FPL GW38 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 38 of the 2024/25 FPL Season?

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