The last gameweek of the season is upon us. The popular captaincy options this week include Watkins, Salah, Evanilson, Bowen, and Saka. Let’s see who tops the captaincy metrics!
This season the metrics has a 25/37 return record. Last season the metrics finished with 560 points(26/38 returns). The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” in the 22/23 season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
Total metrics points: 10 + 34 + 34 + 26 + 12 + 4 + 4 + 4 + 12 + 4 + 4 + 26 + 26 + 10 + 36 + 6 + 42 + 18 + 32 + 14 + 32 + 6 + 16 + 58 + 40 + 28 + 12 + 30 + 14 + 6 + 4 + 22 + 8 + 16 + 4 + 2 + 10 = 666 pts
Note: “Returns” ~ Player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Link to all our FPL GW38 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, free hit drafts, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW38 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW38 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
The captaincy poll for the final gameweek of the season is interesting, with Salah topping it with 31% of the votes, and Bowen, who is in good goal-scoring form, is 2nd with 20% of the votes. Watkins, who picked up only an assist last week as one of the popular captain choices, is 3rd with 9% of votes and will be up against Man United, who lost to Spurs in the Europa League Finals midweek. Saka is 4th with 8% of the votes, and Evanilson is 5th in the captaincy poll this week.
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 38 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 38 Captain picks
We are edging closer to the end of the season, and the numbers are beginning to dip!
The Egyptian King has been silent in the last few weeks but has got enough numbers to top the table with an xG of 2.31 in the last six games, including 7 big chances, which is the highest amongst the five players. He’s also had 18 goal attempts in the box and created 16 chances, both are the highest amongst the five players.
Evanilson is 2nd in the table with an xG of 1.88 in the last six games and has had 5 big chances. He’s also had a healthy 13 goal attempts in the box over the last six games.
Saka is 3rd with an xG of 1.68 and has had 12 goal attempts in the box and 11 big chances in the last six games.
Bowen is only fourth with an xG of 1.65 and has had four big chances. He’s also had 9 goal attempts in the box over the last six games.
Watkins is last with an xG of 1.51 over the last six games and has had a healthy six big chances in the last six games.
Further Read: FPL GW38 – Fixtures & Players to Target for Gameweek 38
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Liverpool are top with 12.30 xG over the last six games, they have also had 82 goal attempts in the box and 24 big chances.
Aston Villa take the second spot with an xG of 10.36 in the last six games and have had 60 shots inside the box and 24 big chances during the period.
Arsenal are 3rd with an xG of 9.33, and they have had 17 big chances and 66 goal attempts in the box in the last six games.
West Ham are 4th with an xG of 7.42, and the Hammers have had 12 big chances and 53 goal attempts in the box in the last six games.
The Cherries are last with an xG of only 5.60 in the last six games and have had only 11 big chances during the period.
Further Read: Top FPL GW38 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW38
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Liverpool are joint 2nd with a 83% odds of at least 1 goal and 55% odds of scoring 2+ goals in FPL GW38 vs Palace(H)
Bournemouth are also joint 2nd with a 89% odds of scoring at least one goal and 50% odds of scoring odds of scoring 2+ goals in FPL GW38 vs Leicester City(H).
Aston Villa are 4th with 83% odds of scoring at least one goal and 36% odds of scoring odds of scoring 2+ goals in FPL GW38 vs Man United(A).
West ham are last with a 82% odds of scoring one goal and a 29% odds of scoring 2+ goals.
Further Read: FPL GW38 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 38 Captain Picks
In the fourth phase of the article, I used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Salah is first for projections this week with 63% anytime returns & a 6.8 points projection in FPL GW38 vs Crystal Palace(H)
Watkins is second this week with 51% anytime returns & a 5.3 points projection in FPL GW38 vs Man United(A).
Saka is 3rd with 66% anytime returns and 5.0 points projection in GW38 vs Southampton(A).
Evanislon, meanwhile, is also 3rd and has a 50% anytime returns & a 5.3 points projection in GW38 against Leicester City.
Bowen is 5th and has a 45% anytime returns and a points prediction of 5.1 and will be up against Ipswich(A).
Further Read: FPL GW38 – Fixtures & Players to Target for Gameweek 38
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 38 Captaincy metrics
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). According to our captaincy metrics, the candidate with the lowest cumulative rank factor is the ideal captaincy option.
Salah tops the captaincy metrics for one last time this season with a CRF of only 5. Saka is 2nd with a CRF of 10, and Evanilson is 3rd with a CRF of 12. Watkins is only 4th with a CRF of 13 and Bowen is last with a CRF of 18
Further reads from AllAboutFPL ahead of FPL GW38:
FPL Gameweek 38 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW38 – Fixtures & Players to Target for Gameweek 38
FPL GW38 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Top FPL Gameweek 38 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Top FPL GW38 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW38 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More
Link to all our FPL GW38 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 38 of the 2024/25 FPL Season?
We’ll be covering differential picks, transfer targets, Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, scout picks, gameweek preview, captaincy metrics, FPL GW38 tips, and more. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for all our blogs. We’ll also be posting regularly about the same on our social media accounts, so follow us on Twitter, Instagram, Threads, and Facebook keep our notifications ON.
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AK - Anurag Khetan
Latest posts by AK - Anurag Khetan (see all)
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