FPL GW37 – Fixtures & Players to Target for Gameweek 37

Hello everyone. Welcome to our third article for allaboutfpl. We will be looking at the key fixtures to target for FPL GW37(basis odds and the delta xG metric) as well as the key players to target from these teams.

Lets dive in.

Link to all our FPL GW37 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, free hit drafts, and more. Completely free to access as well!

Key Fixtures to Target for FPL GW37

Firstly lets look at the odds for this week. These have been calculated basis the odds from the oddschecker website.

FPL GW37 Odds and Expected Goals Data:

Top 5 teams for expected goals:

• Aston Villa – 2.2
• Chelsea – 2.1
• Manchester City – 1.9
• Everton – 1.9
• Brentford – 1.7

Meanwhile the top 5 teams for clean sheet odds are:

• Everton – 50%
• Chelsea – 41%
• Manchester City – 36%
• Aston Villa – 35%
• Crystal Palace – 35%

EVE, CHE, MCI and AVL are definitely the target fixtures for both attacking and defensive assets – as per odds. Meanwhile Brentford attacking assets can be considered, while Palace defensive assets can be considered.

Now what about the delta xG metric? As our earlier readers will recollect, this metric is basically the difference of team xG and opponent xGA. Higher the difference, better for attacking assets. Lower the difference, better for defensive assets. I have found this metric to be just as good an indicator as odds or FDR tickers to identify the key fixtures.

Interestingly the BHA-LIV fixture could be quite high scoring basis the xG delta metric. Both teams are expected to score 1.6 goals as per odds as well.

Top 5 teams for attacking assets in FPL GW37:

• Aston Villa – 3.6
• Liverpool – 3.6
• Crystal Palace – 3.3
• Manchester City – 3.2
• Brighton – 3.2

Meanwhile top 5 teams for defensive assets in FPL GW37:

• Everton – 1.4
• Manchester City – 1.8
• Aston Villa – 1.9
• West Ham – 2.1
• Brentford – 2.1

Anyway so we have our key teams now.

Attacking assets should largely be from Aston Villa and Manchester City (at least 2 each) along with Chelsea, Everton, Brentford, Liverpool or Palace. Meanwhile defensive assets should be from Everton, Manchester City, Aston Villa and Chelsea.

I am not too keen on a punt like Beto or Vardy because while they have good fixtures, these teams have had low xG/game over the last 5 GWs. Everton has just managed 0.8 xG/game in the last 5 GWs. They have scored 6 goals in the last 5, same as Leicester. City and Villa meanwhile have 10 each in the last 5. Brentford have 12.

I just think there are better forwards available this week. Now lets come to key players from these teams. Lets start with attacking assets.

Top Players to Target for FPL GW37

Best Forwards for FPL GW37:

Top 3 for each metric have been highlighted in green.

Wissa

Wissa has the best numbers across all metrics except CC/90. He has the Highest FPL Points (35) and Goal Involvements (5) across all forwards as well from GW32-36. Brentford host Fulham and are expected to score 1.7+ goals. In fact across teams, Brentford have the 4th highest xG at home – behind only Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester City.

Fulham meanwhile have 4 losses in the last 5 games, having conceded 8 goals (and no clean sheet) in the same. Wissa will definitely be one of my top picks for this week.

Watkins

Up next is Watkins. Aston Villa are expected to score 2.2 goals (as per the odds) against a possibly rotated Spurs side, highest across teams for this GW. Watkins is also among the top 3 for all metrics except mins (280 – because he was being rotated earlier with Rashford who is now injured) and shots/90 (slightly lower than Marmoush, Wissa and Beto).

He does have the Highest points among Villa attackers as well in the last 5 and is among the top 2 for underlying numbers along with Asensio. Watkins will also definitely be in my front 3 for this GW.

Marmoush

Marmoush is the 3rd best pick among forwards basis numbers this week. He is not among the top 3 only for returns and points. City have the 3rd best expected goals odds for this week. While Marmoush didn’t start last week, he did show some creativity in attack against Southampton in the 6 minutes that he was on.

Marmoush vs Haaland vs KDB vs Bernardo – vs SOU in GW36:

• xG: 0.1 vs 0.1 vs 0.4 vs 0.4
• Shots: 2 vs 1 vs 5 vs 3
• Shots inside the Box: 2 vs 1 vs 1 vs 3
• xA: 0.0 vs 0.2 vs 0.3 vs 0.1
• Chances Created: 0 vs 2 vs 4 vs 2
• TPA: 5 vs 11 vs 5 vs 5

• Minutes: 6 vs 90 vs 90 vs 90
• FPL Points: 1 vs 2 vs 3 vs 3

I think he should start against BOU given the creativity that he offers and especially City will be looking to get some goals after the unexpected 0-0 draw at Southampton last weekend.

Pep has also mentioned that Haaland and Marmoush could start together as well (like they have done earlier).

Pep Guardiola on where he sees Omar Marmoush featuring now that Erling Haaland has returned:

“Well, they can play together. They played this season before the injury from Erling. He is a player like has to move close to the box. The impact has been really good since he arrived and the impact today was really good. Maybe he should have played more minutes because the fact that his creativity, you know, close to the box, is really important.”

Beto

As I mentioned earlier, I am not too keen on Beto as a pick because Everton in general have had a low xG/game in the last 5 GWs. However, there is no denying that he is definitely a punt for this week against Southampton. Only 3.7% owned and 14 points in the last 2 – he can definitely help you gain rank as a differential.

As mentioned earlier, Southampton did hold Manchester City to a 0-0 draw though last week where City had 26 shots against them (but only 5 on target).

Gakpo (5% owned) and Welbeck (6% owned) are other punts that can be considered from the BHA-LIV fixture that should be high scoring. I don’t mind moving Isak out this week. Only 1.2 expected goals basis odds and they face Arsenal away. Arsenal in fact have the lowest xGA at home across all teams this season (only 0.7 xGA/game). Also Newcastle play Everton in the final GW, who do have the 5th lowest xGA across all teams this year.

Best Midfielders for FPL GW37:

Top 5 for each metric have been highlighted in green.

Kevin De Bruyne

KDB in his last game at Etihad – it can’t get bigger than this. City are also expected to score almost 2 goals against BOU. And KDB has the highest points across all City players in the last 5 GWs. He is definitely one of my top picks for midfield this week.

Asensio or Rogers

I don’t mind Asensio (only 2.7% owned) as a punt this week over Rogers. While Rogers does have more returns, Asensio does have better underlying numbers – highest xG/90 and Chances created/90 across all Villa attackers. Villa double up in attack is definitely recommended and I think I will go with Asensio if you are chasing and Rogers if you are defending.

Kamara vs Asensio vs Onana vs Rogers vs Watkins – Last 5 GWs

• xG/90: 0.1 vs 0.6 vs 0.1 vs 0.1 vs 0.4
• Shots/90: 0.8 vs 2.1 vs 0.9 vs 1.1 vs 2.9
• xA/90: 0.1 vs 0.2 vs 0.0 vs 0.3 vs 0.1
• Chances Created/90: 0.5 vs 2.4 vs 0.9 vs 1.7 vs 1.0
• Minutes: 352 vs 303 vs 300 vs 428 vs 280
• Goal Involvements: 0 vs 0 vs 1 vs 3 vs 4
• FPL Points: 11 vs 8 vs 15 vs 22 vs 30

Cole Palmer

And we are back to this guy. Again. Palmer again is a good option for this week, in fact could be a decent captaincy shout as well (against Watkins). With videos of Salah (and his Liverpool team mates) literally on the beach all over X, I don’t mind moving him out to make space for Palmer. Good metrics across midfielders. Chelsea expected to score 2.1 goals against a mostly rotated Manchester United. He is on penalties as well. Chelsea also have the 2nd highest xG at home across all teams, behind only Liverpool. Man United meanwhile have conceded 12 in the last 5.

Enzo or Neto can also be considered if you don’t want to move out Salah but I would back Palmer over them.

Enzo vs Neto vs Palmer – Last 5 GWs:

• xG/90: 0.2 vs 0.2 vs 0.3
• Shots/90: 1.4 vs 2.6 vs 3.2
• xA/90: 0.3 vs 0.3 vs 0.2
• Chances Created/90: 2.8 vs 1.8 vs 2.4

Eze

He is the highest scoring player (by points) in the last 10 GWs along with Wissa.

A whopping 35 points in the last 3 GWs – 2 double digit hauls including the 16 pointer against Spurs last week. Palace play Wolves who have had 2 losses in a row now against City and Brighton. He is the clear talisman, he could easily get another return this week.

Saka

Saka is also in the top 5 across the key midfielders for all the critical metrics – xG, shots, xA and CC. Arsenal play Newcastle this week (expected to score 1.6 goals) and Southampton next week (definite captaincy option) – Saka is definitely a good option to bring in this week.

Best Defenders and GoalKeepers for FPL GW37:

Top 3 for each metric have been highlighted in green

Munoz

He is among the top 3 for all attacking metrics. Palace have a 35% probability of clean sheet as well against Wolves. Wolves have not scored in the last 2 games. Munoz is definitely a top pick for this GW.

Cucurella

Chelsea have a very good 41% chance of clean sheet this week, against Manchester United. From attacking metrics POV, he also has good numbers across the board – similar to Munoz.

Ruben Dias or Gvardiol

City also have a 36% chance of clean sheet. They have also had 3 clean sheets in the last 4 games, decent chance of clean sheet this weekend as well. One of the 2 city defenders can definitely be considered.

Pickford or Branthwaite

One of these 2 should definitely be picked as Everton have a 50% chance of clean sheet and a very low xG delta of 1.4. I would avoid a double up as I like to diversify to increase the chances of clean sheets. I had double NFO defense last week, didn’t work out that well.

Martinez or Konsa

Lastly, similar to Everton assets, one Aston Villa defender can also be picked up. Aston Villa and Man City triple ups can be considered for FPL GW37.

Further reads from AllAboutFPL ahead of FPL GW37:

FPL GW37 – Fixtures & Players to Target for Gameweek 37
FPL GW37 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More

Link to all our FPL GW37 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 37 of the 2024/25 FPL Season?

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