Welcome to the FPL Gameweek 30 Captain Picks & Metrics blog. After a very long international break and the subsequent FA Cup quarter-finals, we are finally close to the GW30 deadline. This week’s popular captaincy options include Salah, Mateta, Isak, Marmoush, and Kluivert. Let’s see who tops the captaincy metrics!
This season the metrics has a 21/28 return record. Last season the metrics finished with 560 points(26/38 returns). The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” in the 22/23 season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
Total metrics points: 10 + 34 + 34 + 26 + 12 + 4 + 4 + 4 + 12 + 4 + 4 + 26 + 26 + 10 + 36 + 6 + 42 + 18 + 32 + 14 + 32 + 6 + 16 + 58 + 40 + 28 + 12 + 30 + 14 = 594 pts
Note: “Returns” ~ Player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Link to all our FPL GW30 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, best forwards, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW30 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW30 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Mo Salah returns as the popular captaincy option this week after BGW29. King Mo, who has so far registered a whopping 306 points from 29 games this season, will be up against Everton(H) in GW30. Fellow Egyptian Marmoush, in the absence of Haaland, is also an excellent captaincy option this week and will be up against Leicester City(H). Marmoush scored the winner vs Bournemouth in the FA Cup QFs and picked up a goal & an assist vs Brighton in City’s last league game.
The returning Mateta is also a great captaincy candidate against Southampton(A), he has registered 8 goals & an assist in the last 8 league games. Palace should also be high in confidence following their FA Cup QF win against Fulham.
Kluivert vs Ipswich(H) & Bruno vs Forest(A) complete the top five in our captaincy poll this week.
Haaland injury update: “Manchester City FC can confirm that Erling Haaland has suffered an injury to his left ankle. The Norwegian striker sustained the injury during Sunday’s FA Cup quarter-final victory away at AFC Bournemouth. Erling underwent initial tests in Manchester on Monday morning and will now seek specialist consultation to confirm the full extent of the injury. Assessment remains ongoing to ascertain a full prognosis. The expectation is that Erling will be fit in time to play a further part in the remainder of this season, including this summer’s FIFA Club World Cup.” via Man City Website
Further Read: FPL GW30 Wildcard Team – Tips, Players to Target and Best Drafts
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 30 Captain picks
Very rarely do you see Salah not being on top of the individual numbers table, and this week is one such instance with Mateta topping the table with a whopping xG of 4.40 in the last six games, including 8 big chances.
Mo Salah is 2nd in the table with an xG of 3.92 in the last six games, he tops the table for goal attempts in the box(13) and is 2nd for big chances(6) and chances created(17, joint 2nd with Kluivert)
Kluivert is 3rd with an xG of 1.52, he’s joint second for chances created(17), and has a good fixture against Ipswich(H).
Marmoush, who has already scored some sensational goals from outside the box, is only fourth with an xG of 1.00 and will be facing a leaky Leicester City defence.
Bruno registered a huge 17-point haul in GW29 vs Leicester is only 5th in the table with an xG of just 0.90 in the last six games. But he’s top for chances created(19) in the last six games.
Further Read: Top FPL GW30 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Crystal Palace top the Team Underlying Data with 14.26 xG over the last 6 matches, which is the highest amongst the five teams. The Eagles have also had 60 shots inside the box and 22 big chances during the period.
Liverpool are second with 11.32 xG over the last six games, the Reds have also had 64 goal attempts in the box(Highest amongst the five teams) and 18 big chances.
Bournemouth rank 3rd for xG amongst the five teams, registering 8.73 xG in the six games. They have also had a healthy 64 shots inside the box and 17 big chances
Man City are only 4th with an xG of 8.07, and they have had 13 big chances & 40 shots inside the box in the last six games.
Man United are last on the table with an xG of 6.21, 51 shots inside the box & 8 big chances.
Further Read: FPL GW30 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW30
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Man City are first with a 90% odds of at least 1 goal and 58% odds of scoring 2+ goals in FPL GW30 vs Leicester City(H)
Bournemouth are second with 87% odds of at least 1 goal and 45% odds of scoring 2+ goals against Ipswich(H)
Liverpool are 3rd with 87% odds of at least 1 goal and 40% odds of scoring 2+ goals against Everton(H)
Crystal Palace are 4th with 83% odds of at least 1 goal and 33% odds of scoring 2+ goals in FPL GW30 against Southampton(A)
Man United are 5th and have a 69% odds of at least 1 goal and 15% odds of scoring 2+ goals against Forest(A) in GW30.
Further Read: FPL GW30 Wildcard Team- Tips, Players to Target and Best Drafts
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 30 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Salah is first for projections this week with 70% anytime returns & an 8.4 points projection in FPL GW30 vs Everton(H)
Mateta is second this week with 56% anytime returns & a 6.1 points projection in FPL GW30 against Southampton(A).
Marmoush meanwhile is 3rd and has a 56% anytime returns & a 5.4 points projection in GW30 against Leicester City(H)
Kluivert is 4th and has a 50% anytime returns & a 5.3 points projection in FPL GW30 against Ipswich Town(H)
Bruno is last with a 42% anytime return & a 4.8 points projection in GW30 vs Nottingham Forest(A)
Further Read: Top FPL GW30 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 30 Captaincy metrics
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). According to our captaincy metrics, the candidate with the lowest cumulative rank factor is the ideal captaincy option.
Salah and Mateta are joint top in our captaincy metrics with a CRF of 8. Marmoush and Kluivert are joint 3rd with a CRF of 12, and Bruno is last with a CRF of 20.
Further reads from AllAboutFPL ahead of FPL GW30:
FPL GW30 Wildcard Team- Tips, Players to Target and Best Drafts
Top FPL GW30 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW30 Tips – Best Forwards, Mids, Fixture Analysis & More
Top FPL Gameweek 30 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
2024/25 Ultimate Chip Strategy Guide- Best Windows to play all Chips & Combinations
Impact of FA Cup on FPL Blank Gameweek 34 | FPL BGW34
FPL Gameweek 30 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FanTeam PL Final Sprint Mini Season Game Ultimate Guide
FanTeam PL Final Sprint Mini Season Game Drafts with Keynotes
Premier League GW30 Predictions and Prizes- Sleeper Pick’em
FPL GW30 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More
Upcoming FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 24/25 FPL Season
Link to all our FPL GW30 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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